Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
378 FXUS64 KFWD 182331 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 531 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances return tomorrow and continue through early Friday. Heavy rain will create a threat for flooding during this period. - Additional storm chances return late in the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 138 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Another toasty November afternoon is unfolding across the region, with record-breaking temperatures expected. Optimal conditions for compressional warming are in place, as winds have veered out of the west to southwest ahead of a weak cold front in southern Oklahoma. This is allowing temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 80s for most locations this afternoon, with a few locations west of I-35 potentially reaching the 90 degree mark. The record high temperature at DFW Airport has already been broken as of 12:05 pm, breaking the previous record of 83 degrees set in 1973. Waco briefly reached 85 degrees at 11:58 am, breaking the previous record of 84 degrees set in 1905 and 1941. A weak cold front in southern Oklahoma is expected to slide across the Red River into North Texas late this afternoon and into the evening. Surface winds will likely resume a southerly direction this evening as the front enters the area, which may provide enough convergence along the front to result in the development of isolated showers across portions of North Texas. While there will be an axis of instability oriented from southwest to northeast across portions of North Texas, showers will either develop north of the instability or encounter too much mid-level dry air to amount to anything significant without a more substantial forcing mechanism. On the off chance a more robust updraft is able to develop, the main concern would be an isolated lightning strike. A 10% chance for showers and isolated storms has been introduced with this update to reflect this potential. Quiet weather is expected for most of the day Wednesday. Isolated showers will be possible across Central Texas beginning Wednesday morning, with some of this activity potentially continuing into the afternoon. Storm chances will begin to increase across western North and Central Texas late Wednesday afternoon (at the very earliest) as large-scale ascent moves in from the west with the arrival of a shortwave trough. However, most of the activity associated with this shortwave will hold off until Wednesday evening and will be discussed in the long-term discussion below. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 138 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Wednesday evening through the overnight hours. Storms will begin across western North and Central Texas and gradually expand east throughout the night. Some of this activity (especially the initial activity) will have the potential to become supercellular, which will pose a threat for isolated large hail. This will primarily be for areas along and west of the I-35 corridor. Low-level wind fields aren`t particularly favorable for a tornado threat, but we`ll have to monitor the effects of the low-level jet and thunderstorm timing. There may be a very brief window where an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out, especially if storms develop earlier in the evening. Locally heavy rain will also be possible with any of the activity Wednesday evening/night. Coverage of showers and storms is expected to increase through the remainder of Wednesday night as the parent trough of the leading shortwave approaches from the west. Additional widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Thursday and move east throughout the day. Given the minimal instability on Thursday, severe weather is not currently expected. However, occasional gusty winds can`t be ruled out, especially with any clusters/lines of storms that are able to develop. On the other hand, the threat for flooding will increase with this second round of showers and thunderstorms, but where flooding is anticipated will largely depend on where the heaviest rain occurs Wednesday night, as these two rounds will likely compound to create drainage issues for some locations. Expect rainfall totals between 1-2" on average across the region, but areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain could receive upwards of 4"+ through Friday morning. A Flood Watch may be needed in the near future, but there is still some uncertainty in where these higher-end totals could occur. Therefore, we have held off on issuing one at this time but will continue to reassess, especially as additional CAM guidance comes in. Rain coverage will decline Thursday night as the trough eventually exits to our north/northeast. A cold front will move through the region on Friday and will be accompanied by cooler and drier air. Pleasant temperatures are expected over the weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Low rain chances will return on Saturday, with increasing chances Sunday into early next week as another low pressure system moves in from the west. Timing is still a bit uncertain given this is 5-7 days away, but latest ensemble guidance suggests we may have another potential for heavy rain. Stay tuned as more details come to light over the next few days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 A slow moving surface front currently located near the Red River will sag south towards the I-20 corridor over the next several hours, likely stalling near the DFW Metroplex late this evening before retreating to the north overnight. Will include a TEMPO for VRB04KT from 05Z to 09Z tonight to account for the presence of the front. South winds will return by daybreak as the front lifts north in response to an approaching upper low off to the west. The eastward advancing upper low will generate a round of convection Wednesday night, but at this time it looks like the onset would be just beyond the extended DFW TAF period. Will likely need to add TS in subsequent forecast later tonight. Otherwise, will forego the mention of MVFR cigs based on such low prob results from recent guidance, but it does look like a VFR layer of stratocu will be present for much of the day Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 83 67 74 / 10 10 70 80 Waco 65 81 68 76 / 10 20 50 80 Paris 62 82 65 74 / 10 10 60 70 Denton 60 82 63 73 / 10 20 70 90 McKinney 62 82 64 74 / 10 10 70 80 Dallas 67 83 67 75 / 10 10 70 80 Terrell 64 82 66 76 / 10 10 60 70 Corsicana 67 84 69 79 / 0 20 40 70 Temple 64 83 66 76 / 10 20 50 80 Mineral Wells 62 85 63 76 / 10 20 80 90 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...30