Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
695 FXUS64 KFWD 060528 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1228 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Aside from some low rain chances of 10 to 20% on Tuesday and Wednesday with the arrival of a weak cold front, warm and mostly dry weather will continue with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tonight/ Warm and mostly dry weather will continue as we begin the workweek, with some slim rain chances of less than 10% east of I-35 today. This will be due to increasing moisture content in close proximity to a northward moving Gulf low which will be absorbed by mid-latitude flow during the next 24 hours. Because of such a low potential for measurable rainfall, rain-free weather will be indicated in the public forecast. A weakened upper ridge axis overhead should continue to suppress most diurnally driven updrafts, and highs will once again reach the upper 80s and lower 90s. The arrival of slightly higher dewpoints will also result in a shrunken diurnal curve, with overnight lows only falling into the mid 60s to lower 70s. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday Onward/ A weak cold front will be pulled through the forecast area on Tuesday, but other than a shift in wind direction, its impact on sensible weather will be minimal. The thermodynamic contrast associated with this boundary will lag behind by a few hundred miles and will stall before any noteworthy cooler air can progress as far south as North Texas. Low-level convergence along this front could result in scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm on Tuesday, and this would be most likely in parts of Central Texas where the convergent axis should lie during peak heating. However, coverage will be slim as mid-level subsidence still prevails overhead, and PoPs of just 10-20% will be advertised. Warm and dry weather should persist through the second half of the workweek and into the weekend while temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above normal. There is little/no indication regarding the arrival of a more substantial fall cold front through at least the next 10 days. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with light east/southeast winds at 5-10 kts. While skies will be mostly clear, a few daytime cumulus around 6-7 kft can be expected. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 90 70 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 5 Waco 65 91 68 91 68 / 0 0 5 10 5 Paris 67 87 67 89 66 / 0 10 10 20 5 Denton 63 90 64 89 62 / 0 0 0 10 5 McKinney 65 89 66 89 64 / 0 5 5 10 5 Dallas 70 92 71 91 68 / 0 0 5 10 5 Terrell 65 89 66 89 65 / 0 5 5 10 5 Corsicana 68 91 68 91 68 / 0 0 5 10 5 Temple 64 92 67 91 66 / 0 0 5 20 5 Mineral Wells 63 92 64 90 63 / 0 0 0 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$