Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
038 FXUS64 KFWD 091813 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1213 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and above average temperatures will close out this work week, with plenty of sun and highs in the 70s Thursday through Saturday. - A strong cold front will bring much colder temperatures on Sunday with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. - There is increasing potential for a storm system early next week to bring scattered rain showers to North and Central Texas. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1211 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 A mild day is expected across Central and North Texas today with plentiful sun, breezy southwest winds at 10-20 mph and highs in the 60s. Areas east of a line from Bonham to Palestine may struggle to warm out of the 50s due to a stratus deck that kept temperatures cooler this morning. Tonight will be clear and cold with lows dropping into the low and mid 40s. Wednesday morning, a weak front will push through the area bringing gusty northerly winds of 15 to 30 mph and much drier air behind it. Temperatures behind the front will still warm into the 60s owing to plentiful sun and the lack of humidity in the post- frontal airmass. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1211 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning, with lows dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s. For the end of the work-week, longwave ridging aloft and surface high pressure will keep skies clear and bring warmer afternoon temperatures to the region. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will range anywhere from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. The cooler temperatures are expected across Northeast Texas, and the warmer temperatures are expected across Central Texas. Friday Night, a weak frontal boundary will likely stall out somewhere in proximity to the Red River Valley. Most of us will be south of this boundary, with high temperatures on Saturday expected to remain in the low and mid 70s. However, if you find yourself north of the boundary (will likely need to be north of US-82), high temperatures on Saturday may struggle to make it out of the mid 60s. Weak isentropic ascent and the return of low- level moisture ahead of this boundary will result in considerable cloudiness and isolated rain showers (20-30% chance), particularly Saturday evening into Saturday night east of US-75/I-45. Late Saturday Night/early Sunday morning, a strong cold front looks to push southward across our area. Much cooler temperatures will arrive with the passage of this front, with high temperatures in the 50s along and south of the I-20 corridor, and in the upper 40s closer to the Red River. By the beginning of next work week, an upper-level disturbance will eject out into the Southern Great Plains. The return of moisture from the south in addition to synoptic scale forcing owing to PVA will result in increasing chances (30-40%) for rain showers in the Monday to Tuesday time frame. As subsequent forecast cycles get closer to this next system, rain chances across much of the area will likely increase as confidence grows in the timing of the disturbance. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 South winds with periodic gusts up to 20 kts will veer and become southwesterly after 00Z tonight. Despite strong flow at 020 of 35-40 kts, surface winds should remain strong enough to mitigate a higher LLWS threat. This changes with the passage of a cold front around 12Z (DFW), as there will be a 3-4 hour window where surface NNW surface winds will be light (~34005KT) and under very strong NNE winds (03045KT) anywhere between 015 and 020 ft. LLWS concerns will subside after 15Z as diurnal mixing kicks in and stronger winds develop at the surface (this should happen before LLWS concerns develop at KACT). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 44 63 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 44 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 41 61 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 40 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 42 62 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 45 64 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 42 64 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 46 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 42 67 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 42 66 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah