Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
882 FXUS64 KFWD 021109 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 609 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet but warm weather continues into next week. Rain chances remain 10% or less. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: A weak disturbance moving through the Southern Plains has tapped into a little mid level moisture to produce some clouds and a few showers. All of this activity is expected to remain north of the Red River this morning. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Friday Night/ Clear skies, light winds, and relatively warm conditions will continue through Friday as mid level ridging remains in place across the Southern Plains. A weak disturbance will dig southward around the eastern periphery of the ridge on Friday and meander across the northwest Gulf and coastal Louisiana into the weekend. While this system likely won`t have any major impacts to our weather, we`ll start to see an uptick in moisture across our southeast counties and perhaps an isolated shower or two. Rain chances will remain less than 10% through Friday night. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1239 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025/ /Saturday through Wednesday/ The upper disturbance across the northern Gulf will gradually shift southwestward through the beginning of the week while troughing becomes more pronounced across the western CONUS. This will allow a better fetch of Gulf moisture northward into North Texas through Tuesday. While large scale forcing for ascent will be negligible, we`ll still see an increase in scattered afternoon showers mainly across far east and southeast Texas and we`ll include some low PoPs during peak heating. Otherwise, rain chances will generally remain low to near zero through the first half of next week while temperatures continue to top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. There is some indication that a weak front may try to push southward into the region beyond Wednesday and could be accompanied by a slight increase in rain chances. Until then, warm and dry conditions will persist. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with easterly winds 5 to 7 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected through tonight. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 70 91 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 91 67 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 90 65 89 61 86 / 0 5 0 0 0 Denton 90 65 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 91 66 91 62 88 / 0 5 0 0 0 Dallas 93 70 92 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 91 65 90 62 88 / 0 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 93 68 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 93 66 90 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 93 64 92 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$