663
FXUS65 KGGW 012056
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
256 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- There will be strong westerly winds on Sunday along with
  elevated to critical fire weather.

- Temperatures stay slightly warmer than normal with mostly dry
  conditions for next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Temperatures today were much warmer than normal in the western
zones with sun and downslope warming. A cold front will move
through tonight to bring west to northwest winds up significantly
on Sunday. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Little Rockies
for the AM hours of Sunday as the peak gust potential moves
through for up to around 55-60 mph, while the rest of the area
will see gusty winds closer to 45-50 mph giving a solid Lake Wind
Advisory tonight through Sunday evening. This front looks to come
through dry with any measurable precipitation very isolated. From
Monday onward, the flow pattern becomes zonal aloft with some
indicators of weak ridging. Expect steady temperatures and minimal
rain chances to continue.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
There is moderate confidence for high wind criteria to be met for
the Little Rockies Sunday morning, enough to issue a warning for
that zone while there is generally a low chance elsewhere. There
is high confidence many locations across the area will see gusts
up to 50 mph on Sunday. Leaned heavily toward the 90th percentile
of ensemble and national blend models for winds through Sunday for
this event.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2100Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.

DISCUSSION: A high pressure system will temporarily be in place
through tonight. There is very high confidence of VFR conditions
occurring through Sunday, with mainly mid to high level clouds
moving through.

WINDS: Increasing out of the west late tonight, 20-25 kts will be common
on Sunday with gusts up to around 40 kts.

LLWS: There is high confidence of westerly wind shear moving into
all TAF sites after 03Z this evening, lasting into Sunday morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Unseasonably warm temperatures and humidity as low as the teens
observed this afternoon west of Fort Peck Lake has further dried
out fuels ahead of strong west winds behind a cold front on
Sunday. The relative humidity values in the 20s Sunday afternoon
will be low enough to create critical fire weather conditions in
the southwest portion of the area since winds will be quite
strong at 20 to 35 mph sustained. Though the vapor pressure
deficit will not be as critical with temperatures in the 50s, the
main concern will be grassland fire spread potential with the
strong winds. Thus, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for fire
weather zones 136 and 137 on Sunday with elevated conditions
elsewhere. Thereafter, winds and humidity become more moderated
with little fire concerns at this time after Sunday.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight MDT Sunday
night for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern
Valley-Garfield-McCone-Petroleum.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MDT Sunday for Southern
Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Lower Missouri
River Breaks including the Charles M Russell National Wildlife
Refuge.

High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon MDT Sunday for
Southwest Phillips.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow