117
FXUS65 KGGW 020812
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
212 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
- A gradual daily drop in temperatures is expected beginning
  Friday into the weekend.

- An approaching low pressure system will bring accumulating
  precipitation to the region this Friday night through Saturday
  night.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
The overall weather pattern will only gradually change as the
ridge of high pressure is slowly pushed eastward by an approaching
trough of low pressure from the west. Today, the warm and dry
influence is still around. But starting on tonight, higher
humidity and isolated rain showers will move into our region from
the southwest.

There will be a brief dry period Friday afternoon before the
frontal passage then post frontal rain showers will kick in
Friday night through Saturday. The bulk of the rain is expected
Saturday south of the Missouri River with up to a quarter of an
inch possible along the Yellowstone River Valley and near nothing
north of Highway 2.

Conditions dry out Sunday with cooler and dry conditions holding
through Tuesday. A weak ridge looks to approach mid next week and
may briefly bring temps up. Late next week some models hint at a
much stronger fall like cold front, but ensembles are currently to
widespread to nail down for certain.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
No Deviations from NBM were observed.

Confidence is high for the temperatures forecast through Sunday.

Confidence is medium for the wind forecast with higher winds
speeds expected behind the main cold front in future forecasts as
the ensemble gradient sharpens up. While not yet observed, a Lake
Wind Advisory could be possible during this time due to the
sharpness of the temp drop off.

Confidence is medium to low for precipitation details.


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATE: 0800Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: General SW flow aloft will bring a mix of clear skies
and scattered high clouds through this TAF cycle. Increasing
chances for precipitation will arrive Friday night through
Saturday night.

WIND: Light and variable this morning through the cycle.

EQUIPMENT: At KSDY an AMD NOT SKED will remain in place
until the METARs comms issue is repaired.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow