656
FXUS65 KGGW 152039
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
139 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- A shortwave ridge will bring precipitation chances to end this
  evening through Sunday.

- A weak upper level pattern and consistent surface pattern will
  allow for precipitation chances to occur from Sunday night
  through Wednesday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A departing upper level shortwave trough is forcing scattered
rain and snow showers across the area through this afternoon,
with potential for snow accumulation up to a half inch for
northern Phillips and Valley counties. There is an opportunity for
patchy fog tonight through around noon tomorrow. Tomorrow will be
dry with surface high pressure over the Dakotas before a more
unsettled pattern of shortwave troughs works through the region
Sunday night through Wednesday. Weak upper level southwest flow,
surface southeast winds, and model agreement on PWAT values
climbing to 0.5 to 0.75 inches, Monday morning and Tuesday morning
have decent agreement among a few CAMs and ensemble models to
suggest freezing rain in elevation locations above 2,500 feet.
There is not much agreement on precipitation amounts with this
system though.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
Increased PoPs for Sunday evening through Tuesday evening since
NBM tends to have light QPF and PoP amounts with a weak forcing.
Used NBM 90 and NBM combination to increase winds for Day 1
through Day 3. Lots of model agreement on strong easterly flow on
Day 2 and Day 3.

There is high confidence of precipitation ending by 6 PM today.
There is moderate to high confidence of low clouds remaining in
place through the early afternoon tomorrow. There is moderate
confidence in a few locations above 2,500 feet receiving freezing
rain in the mornings early next week. Confidence is high for the
temperature pattern. There is relatively low confidence for measurable
precipitation next week. There is moderate confidence of patchy
fog occurring tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR to MVFR, with scattered IFR.

DISCUSSION: A shortwave trough is bringing scattered rain and snow
showers that will come to an end by 00Z. There will VFR and MVFR
at times through 18Z Sunday. There is moderate to high (50 to 70
percent) confidence that scattered IFR conditions will occur from
09Z to 17Z as the stationary front over central Montana remains in
place. Then a shortwave ridge will bring conditions back to the
VFR category in the afternoon Sunday.

WINDS: For KGGW, southeast at 7 to 13 knots. For all other sites,
light and variable becoming east at 5 to 10 knots after 18Z
Sunday.

EQUIPMENT: KOLF`s ASOS telecom circuit is down and can not be
dialed into. Therefore, AMD NOT SKED for this TAF until repairs
can be made.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow