448
FXUS63 KGID 231800
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1200 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather expected today with highs in the upper 50s to
  low 60s

- Rain moves into the area this evening/tonight (40-60% PoPs) and
  continues into the day on Monday. Rain accumulations
  generally 0.10" or less.

- Gusty winds and cooler weather behind a cold front on Tuesday. Winds
  gusting over 40mph possible. Highs in the upper 30s to mid
  40s through the end of the forecast period.

- Increasing chances for the first wintry storm of the season arriving
  next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 233 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Clear skies and light winds this morning have resulted in
temperatures dipping into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Patchy fog has
developed across portions of north central Kansas, but widespread
dense fog is not expected. Southerly flow strengthens over the area
today ahead of an approaching low. This will result in another
pleasant day across the area as temperatures climb into the upper
50s to low 60s during the afternoon. Increasing cloud coverage is
expected during the day as the low moves into the Plains.

Rain moves southwest to northeast into the area this evening-night.
PoPs remain widespread, with a 40-60% chance across the forecast
area. Despite the fairly high PoPs, accumulations remain light, with
most areas seeing accumulations of 0.10" or less. The most
widespread rain is expected tonight-Monday morning. Rain chances
will come to an end from west to east during the day on Monday,
becoming dry by the evening hours. Highs on Monday will be in the
low 50s. A strong cold front moves through the area on Tuesday,
bringing colder temperatures and gusty winds. The strongest winds on
Tuesday will be along and north of Interstate 80, with winds gusting
over 40mph possible. Otherwise the forecast remains largely on
track, with below normal temperatures continuing through the end of
the forecast period (Highs upper 30s-mid 40s, lows 10s-20s). Dry
weather is expected for Thanksgiving. Next weekend, looks to be the
first chance for wintry weather for the forecast area, this
system will continue to be monitored closely over the coming days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Tonight into Sunday...

High pressure, clear skies, and light winds may result in some
valley fog, primarily within a few hours either side of sunrise
Sunday morning. At this point any fog appears that it would be
patchy, shallow, and not very long lasting, maybe 1-3 hours.
Most areas can expect a quiet and clear night.

The wind will become southerly on Sunday bringing in some higher
dewpoints and we`ll have a closed low lifting northeast out of
the desert southwest. This will result in increasing clouds
Sunday afternoon and evening, but with rain chances holding off
until after sunset. As mentioned in the key messages section
above, this is a high probability for precipitation (>50%) but
also likely that it will only be light amounts (less than
0.10"). The most likely time frame for any rainfall will be
Sunday night between 11 PM and 7 AM.


Monday...

Rainfall chances will begin to decrease from west to east and
most areas should be dry by afternoon. Again this is a light
rainfall event with the NBM probability of receiving 0.10" or
more of precipitation over 24 hrs only (30-60%). That probability
shrinks to 10-30% for reaching 0.25" of rain Sunday night into
Monday. Highs should still be in the 50s with good forecast
confidence and a low model spread. However, clouds and a few
showers will mean that it will feel less pleasant than Sunday.


Tuesday through Friday...

We`ll see our first push of cooler air into the region on
Tuesday behind the departing Monday system. Then an even
stronger punch of cold air is expected Tuesday evening behind a
quick moving clipper that will track across the Dakotas giving
North Dakota some snow, but just colder for our area.

After that 2nd clipper Tuesday evening our pattern grows quiet
for at least Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day with northwesterly
flow and mainly dry conditions. Good travel conditions are
likely Wednesday and Thursday all across the plains states. We
do have an outlying 10% of the 12Z ECMWF ensembles indicating
some light snow over portions of Nebraska on Thanksgiving, but
our forecast will follow the 90% that give us a dry Thanksgiving
Day.

By Friday after Thanksgiving we start to see an upper trough
develop across the western United States that will be our next
storm system. There could be some warm air advection snow ahead
of this system (<20% chance) over far northeastern Nebraska,
South Dakota, and Iowa, but the NBM average is still dry, just a
few outlying models giving a light skip of snow on Friday
northeast of our forecast area.

High temperatures Tuesday through Friday are likely to be in the
40s, but with a larger model spread that includes the
possibility of colder 30 degree highs as well.


Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving...

Holiday travelers will need to keep a close eye on weather
conditions for the return trip Saturday and Sunday. Almost half
of the 50 ECMWF ensembles are producing accumulating snow
somewhere over our forecast area during the Saturday/Sunday
time frame following Thanksgiving. There will likely be a
developing storm system over the plains during this time frame,
but with significant uncertainty at this time regarding storm
track, strength, and speed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There are several aviation concerns this forecast period
including very low LIFR ceilings, visibility reductions, and the
chance for some rain showers. The primary concern will center
around the lowering ceilings tonight. Clear skies early this
afternoon will give way to increasing mid to high clouds this
evening, but the rain should hold off until after 10 or 11 PM at
our TAF sites and then the lower ceilings should also move in
around or just after that time frame, but especially after
midnight. Forecast models indicate that once the IFR and LIFR
ceilings move in after midnight, they will likely persist
throughout the remainder of the TAF period Monday morning. Most
of any light rain will fall between 11 PM Sunday and 9 AM
Monday. Also can not rule out fog, including the possibility of
patchy dense fog.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely