379
FXUS63 KGID 230527
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1127 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible around sunrise Sunday morning in low lying
  areas especially in river valleys.

- Outstanding late November weather to end the weekend, highs in
  the upper 50s to around 60 on Sunday with light south winds.

- Light rain likely (50-80%) Sunday night into Monday, but
  amounts will be minor (Generally 0.10" or less).

- Cooler weather (highs 40s and possibly 30s) arrives Tuesday
  and continues into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
  Increasing potential for a wintry storm system on the plains
  by Saturday or Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Tonight into Sunday...

High pressure, clear skies, and light winds may result in some
valley fog, primarily within a few hours either side of sunrise
Sunday morning. At this point any fog appears that it would be
patchy, shallow, and not very long lasting, maybe 1-3 hours.
Most areas can expect a quiet and clear night.

The wind will become southerly on Sunday bringing in some higher
dewpoints and we`ll have a closed low lifting northeast out of
the desert southwest. This will result in increasing clouds
Sunday afternoon and evening, but with rain chances holding off
until after sunset. As mentioned in the key messages section
above, this is a high probability for precipitation (>50%) but
also likely that it will only be light amounts (less than
0.10"). The most likely time frame for any rainfall will be
Sunday night between 11 PM and 7 AM.


Monday...

Rainfall chances will begin to decrease from west to east and
most areas should be dry by afternoon. Again this is a light
rainfall event with the NBM probability of receiving 0.10" or
more of precipitation over 24 hrs only (30-60%). That probability
shrinks to 10-30% for reaching 0.25" of rain Sunday night into
Monday. Highs should still be in the 50s with good forecast
confidence and a low model spread. However, clouds and a few
showers will mean that it will feel less pleasant than Sunday.


Tuesday through Friday...

We`ll see our first push of cooler air into the region on
Tuesday behind the departing Monday system. Then an even
stronger punch of cold air is expected Tuesday evening behind a
quick moving clipper that will track across the Dakotas giving
North Dakota some snow, but just colder for our area.

After that 2nd clipper Tuesday evening our pattern grows quiet
for at least Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day with northwesterly
flow and mainly dry conditions. Good travel conditions are
likely Wednesday and Thursday all across the plains states. We
do have an outlying 10% of the 12Z ECMWF ensembles indicating
some light snow over portions of Nebraska on Thanksgiving, but
our forecast will follow the 90% that give us a dry Thanksgiving
Day.

By Friday after Thanksgiving we start to see an upper trough
develop across the western United States that will be our next
storm system. There could be some warm air advection snow ahead
of this system (<20% chance) over far northeastern Nebraska,
South Dakota, and Iowa, but the NBM average is still dry, just a
few outlying models giving a light skip of snow on Friday
northeast of our forecast area.

High temperatures Tuesday through Friday are likely to be in the
40s, but with a larger model spread that includes the
possibility of colder 30 degree highs as well.


Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving...

Holiday travelers will need to keep a close eye on weather
conditions for the return trip Saturday and Sunday. Almost half
of the 50 ECMWF ensembles are producing accumulating snow
somewhere over our forecast area during the Saturday/Sunday
time frame following Thanksgiving. There will likely be a
developing storm system over the plains during this time frame,
but with significant uncertainty at this time regarding storm
track, strength, and speed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions remain in the forecast for this TAF period, and
outside of the final few hours, the forecast remains dry.
Expecting little in the way of cloud cover tonight on into the
late morning-midday hours, before increasing mid-upper level
clouds start working in from the WSW. Ceilings look to lower
with time, kept things VFR at this point, but those final few
hours could see MVFR conditions develop. An upper level storm
system sliding on the the Plains will bring increasing rain
chances...with the overall best chances looking to be after the
end of this TAF period. Winds remain light/variable tonight into
the first part of Sunday...then turns more southerly for the
remainder of the period. Speeds look to top out around 15 MPH
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...ADP