742
FXUS63 KGID 191703
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1103 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog expected through the mid-morning hours, with areas
  of locally dense fog possible.

- Rain chances return Thursday night as rain lifts north into
  the area. Accumulations will range from a trace to a few
  hundredths north of I-80, to 0.5-1" across north central
  Kansas.

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 60s and mostly
  sunny skies.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Dense fog has improved across the region this morning and
visibilities below 1 mile are no longer expected. For this
reason, the dense fog advisory was allowed to expire at 11 AM
CST.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Patchy fog has developed this morning, so far impacting areas
mainly along and southwest of a line from Hebron to Hastings to
Broken Bow. A few areas have seen dense fog, though so far it
has been fairly transient. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed if
dense fog becomes more widespread/persistent. Southwestern
portions of the area have seen low stratus clear out, allowing
temperatures to drop to the freezing mark. Fog combined with
freezing temperatures will result in slick spots on roads and
surfaces. Any lingering fog should come to an end around the
mid morning hours. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected
across the area today. This will limit heating, though southerly
winds should help temperatures climb into the 50s this
afternoon. Skies should clear briefly tonight, with lows in the
30s.

Another seasonable day is expected on Thursday with highs in the
50s, as cloud coverage increases ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough. The shortwave and associated surface low lift into the
Central Plains Thursday evening-night, bringing a chance for rain to
the area. Rain chances will increase from south to north Thursday
evening-night, with stratiform rain ongoing across north central
Kansas by midnight/12am Friday. How far north this stratiform rain
gets remains uncertain, though 00z and 06z models have had a slight
northward trend. The low will move east during the daytime
hours on Friday, as rain ends from west to east Friday evening-
night. This northward trend gives higher confidence that
portions of south central Nebraska could see 0.10" or more of
rain. Still, areas north of I-80 may not see more than a few
hundredths if any rain. The heaviest accumulations are expected
across north central Kansas where 0.5-1" of rain are possible
through Friday afternoon/evening.

Otherwise the forecast remains largely the same through the weekend
into early next week. Pleasant weather is expected this weekend with
highs in the 60s and mostly sunny skies. A great opportunity to get
things done outside before cold air returns next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Widespread cloud cover has persisted across much of the local
area this afternoon. Where clouds have remained thick,
temperatures remain in the 40s, with a few lucky spots that have
seen sunny skies climbing into the 50s.

For tonight...some uncertainty exists in the amount of low
level cloud cover that will remain across the area. Model data
indicates this lower level cloud cover may hold tough past
midnight with rather thick cirrus filling in across the upper
levels by the time it dissipates. While there will likely be
some erosion of the lower stratus on the edges, think the
overall amounts of clouds will limit radiational cooling and at
least widespread fog potential overnight. The latest HRRR (19Z)
is indicating there may be some dense fog to our west towards
daybreak Wednesday, but this has continued to trend outside our
forecast area, and given very low SREF probs for fog
development, think the potential for more dense fog locally is
low. That said, given the light and favorable wind direction,
would not be surprised if some light fog with visibilities in
the 3-5 SM range will be possible across at least parts of the
area to start the day Wednesday.

While mid/high level cloud cover will persist across the area
through much of the day Wednesday, this cloud cover will not be
as inhibitive to warming as what we have seen today - and this
combined with a return to southerly winds and brief ridging
aloft, should allow for afternoon temperatures to rebound into
the upper 50s and lower 60s for most locations Wednesday
afternoon.

Thereafter...the focus will shift to the upper level low across
the desert southwest that is forecast to lift into the plains on
Thursday/Friday. As this low lifts north and east later this
week, expect clouds to once again thicken across the local area
with a chance for rain returning by Thursday evening to north
central Kansas, eventually spreading north towards the I-80
corridor Friday morning. The overall focus of this storm remains
south of the local area, and while cloud cover will likely keep
temperatures in the 40s again for the entire area to end the
week, the majority of the rainfall will be limited to north
central Kansas, with areas north of I-80 likely not receiving
much accumulation.

Behind this low, high pressure will again expand across the
plains over the upcoming weekend as another upper level low
deepens across the desert southwest. This will set-up a
fantastic late fall weekend across the local area, with well
above normal temperatures (10-15 degrees) along with light
southerly breezes and lots of sunshine.

Expect the aforementioned upper level low to scoot mainly
southeast of the local area early next week with an upper level
trough from the north eventually bringing a prolonged period of
cooler weather to the local area by Thanksgiving eve.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR to LIFR fog is expected through 15-16z at KEAR. Fog will
likely bounce between IFR and LIFR over the next few hours,
before clearing by the mid-late morning, with visibilities
gradually improving and becoming VFR. Fog is not expected to be
as dense at KGRI, but fog may drop as low as 3SM. After fog
dissipates this morning, VFR conditions are expected through the
rest of the day on Wednesday. SCT-BKN mid-high level clouds will
persist throughout the day. Late in the TAF period fog is
possible behind a weak frontal passage. Some of this fog could
be IFR/MVFR, but confidence in timing and visibility are too low
to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis/SR
DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...Davis