266
FXUS63 KGID 161129
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
529 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather today with highs in the 60s and mostly sunny
  skies.

- Rain chances (15-25%) return to the area Monday evening/night
  for areas north of Interstate 80.

- Seasonable temperatures (40s/50s) continue next week, with
  additional chances for rain Thursday and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 241 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Temperatures this morning are in the 30s and 40s under partly cloudy
skies. This cloud coverage will likely help to prevent the
development of fog this morning. If greater clearing does
happen, some patchy fog development is possible (west of Highway
281). Another pleasant and sunny day is expected for the area.
Highs today will climb into the upper 50s (northeast) to mid 60s
(southwest). Southerly winds may be breezy at times west of
Highway 183, gusting 20-25mph. Lows tonight will be in the upper
30s to mid 40s.

Focus turns to a passing shortwave trough moving through the area on
Monday. Precipitation with the initial wave looks to miss the
area to the north and east, though areas east of Highway 281 and
north of Highway 92 could see some light rain before it quickly
exits the area. PoPs have increased Monday evening/night, as
models show support for rain wrapping around the backside of the
low as it exits the area. This would bring a chance for rain to
areas north of I-80. PoPs with this round will likely need to
be increase/broadened in coverage if this model trend continues.
Beyond Monday`s PoPs, the forecast remains largely on track
with seasonable temperatures through the end of the forecast
period and more widespread rain chances arriving Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025


Tonight through Monday...

A cold front passing through to the south early today has kept highs
around 10-15 degrees cooler this afternoon (upper 60s to mid 70s)
compared to yesterds`s record temperatures. This feature`s passage
was evident by the northward flip in winds directions this morning.
Higher surface pressure building across the north plains tonight and
sunday will help to maintain light and variable winds turning
eastward overnight followed by some steady 10-15MPH southeasterlies
for Sunday.

Some fog development Sunday morning can`t be ruled out given the
gentle easterly upsloping flow and the near saturated
temp/dewpoints (both lows and dewpoints as low as the 30s to low
40s). A few clouds overhead could limit the diurnal cooling to a
degree, in what could be the difference between widespread dense fog
and areas of patchy fog. The overall best potential should fall west
of HWY-281 and north of the state line. Around 40% of the REFS
ensemble members as well as close to 50% of the HREF ensemble
members suggest the potential for some coverage of fog. Beyond the
morning fog potential, highs for Sunday will continue to slide down
a few degrees into the 60s.

The next major pattern change will arrive Monday as a simi-cutoff
shortwave trough gets shoved into the Central Plains. Recently there
has been some question around the amount of precipitation that this
system will churn out with the global models (GFS/ECMWF) now
appearing to be point towards mostly dry conditions for the area. The
general consensus shows a weak surface low forming off the western
Rockies and moving east across primarily northern Kansas through the
day. Beyond temporarily nudging wind directions towards the north
as it passes by to the south, a few scattered and light showers
could materialize across a few far north and northeastern areas
during the afternoon and evening hours Monday.

In terms of precipitation chances, the total shower coverage has
decreased with both the GFS and ECMWF now analyzing most of the
precipitation towards northern Nebraska and South Dakota. Our latest
PoPs reflect this northward shift in confidence as now all places
have PoPs below 15% beyond a limited far northern and northeastern
locations (only up to 20%). Amount wise, only a handful of places
may even see more than a trace with likely far more areas missed
than hit. Temperates in the mid 50s to mid 60s during the day would
keep any falling precipitation in the forum of liquid.


Tuesday and Beyond...

Temperatures next week will eventually stabilize Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs resting in the 50s to low 60s. Persistent cloud
coverage starting Tuesday/Wednesday may stick around for a majority
of the time through Friday. The mostly cloudy skies paired with a
steady northerly wind component Thursday and Friday should allow
temperatures to drop a few more degrees into the the mid 40s to mid
50s to finish out the week. Friday`s temperates could become the
coolest of the week (mid 40s to low 50s).

Another Western U.S. trough is favored to take a more southern route
across the Central U.S. near the end of the week (around Thursday).
This second system could bring parts of the area a better shot at
precipitation compared to Monday`s event. Cluster analysis by the 0z
LREF shows two possible outcomes near the end of next week reliant
on the mid-to-upper level patten. The leading cluster (most likely
scenario) explaining 29% of the ensemble member variance with greater
contribution of the european ensemble (ENS), showed a flatter and
less amplified troughing patten that keep precipitation amounts on
the more reserved end (0.1-0.25") with cooler temperatures heading
into Friday. Meanwhile, the second leading cluster (alternate
scenario) explaining only 20% of the variance and more contribution
from the american ensemble (GEFS), showed a more amplified troughing
pattern with a slightly wetter signal (0.25-0.75") and with warmer
temperatures heading into Friday. The conclusion that can be taken
away from this cluster analysis is that a more amplified trough next
week could increase precipitation chance/amounts as well as
influence slightly warmer temperatures near the end of the week.

Forecast wise, the NBM keeps precipitation chances between 25-45%
with the highest PoPs concentrated towards the southeast (areas
closer to the system center). Timing wise, the highest confidence
currently resides Thursday night, though the earliest inclusion of
precipitation chances begin Wednesday evening and end by Friday
afternoon. The possibility of a period of mixed precipitation or
brief snow can`t be 100% ruled out quite yet (some areas of sub-
freezing temperatures late Thursday night) though a vast majority of
the precipitation should fall as rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Patchy fog is possible in the area of the TAF sites over the
next few hours, but it seems unlikely to impact KGRI/KEAR at
this time. If fog does develop, sub-VFR conditions are possible.
Outside of the next few hours, VFR conditions are expected
through the early morning hours on Monday.
FEW-SCT high level clouds are possible throughout the day. Late
in the TAF period, SCT-BKN Mid level clouds move into the TAF
sites, with sub-VFR stratus arriving just past the TAF period.

Winds shift to the southeast this morning, increasing to around
10-15kts this afternoon, decreasing slightly overnight, but
remaining around 10kts. LLWS will develop around Midnight as the
LLJ strengthens. LLWS persists through the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Davis