034
FXUS63 KGID 050931
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
331 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Forecast remains dry through tonight...expecting warmer temps
  today with highs in the 40s.

- Next chance for precip moves into the area for Saturday-Sat
  evening. Overall best chances remain north of I-80, but the
  heaviest amounts expected to focus NNE of the forecast area.
  Expecting light amounts...models keep probabilities of snow
  totals exceeding 1 inch below 30 percent for areas mainly
  along/north of HWY 92. Light precip will be possible all the
  way down to near the NE/KS state line

- Forecast dries out for Sunday through Wednesday, though subtle
  shortwave disturbances crossing somewhere over the Plains will
  continue...confidence in any details are not high. Sunday is
  back in the 20s-30s, with 50s forecast by Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Seeing quiet conditions across the region early this morning,
with mostly clear to partly cloud skies as a patch of mainly
upper level clouds works its way through. Looking aloft, upper
air and satellite data show the region sitting under generally
northwesterly flow... with broad troughing spread across most of
the CONUS and areas of high pressure centered well off the west
and southeastern coasts. There are a number of shortwave
disturbances embedded in the larger scale flow...one of which
will continue working across the Dakotas through today. While
this disturbance is not expected to bring precipitation to the
forecast area, it will help to push a surface frontal boundary
through from west to east. Currently, winds across the area are
west-southwesterly...but will be turning more northwesterly
through the first half of the day behind this boundary. Late
this morning through at least mid-afternoon, gusts near 20-25
MPH will be possible. Expecting at least partly cloudy skies
through the day...and models continue to show a bump up in highs
this afternoon. No notable changes were made to forecast highs
today, which are mainly in the low-mid 40s...though spot in the
SW could flirt with 50 degrees.

No changes to the dry forecast continuing on into this evening
and tonight...with the next chances for precipitation moving
into the area for Saturday. Overall, models not showing any
significant changes for this forecast. The brunt of the lift
associated with this wave still looking to slide east roughly
along the NE/SD border...keeping the main axis of heavier
precipitation off to our NNE, giving us more of a glancing blow
shot of precip on the southern side of the wave. Main chances
remain along/north of I-80, but was a little more generous with
the coverage of slight/20 percent chances for precip, extending
them further south closer to the NE/KS state line. Kept the main
precip type as rain or snow depending on sfc temps...but it`s
not out of the question that at least a brief period of a light
wintry mix could occur in any transition area. Forecast remains
light as far as precip/snow amounts go...with continued support
for ensemble data. Looking at probabilities of 1 inch or more of
snow, the GFS ens. data remains higher than the ECMWF with
those chances, and even it only has about a 10-30 percent chance
roughly along/north of HWY 92. Winds switch back to the south
tonight ahead of the next frontal boundary, which will slide
through the area during the day on Saturday, ushering in another
shot of northwesterly winds. Models not showing excessive winds
from either direction...but speeds/gusts around 20 MPH are not
out of the question through Saturday. This continues to look to
be an overall minor event for our forecast area...with highs on
Saturday behind the precip potentially climbing well into the
40s/near 50 (mainly west of HWY 281). Further east, some
locations may struggle to get out of the 30s.

Looking out beyond Saturday, once this disturbance pushes east,
the forecast remains dry Sunday through Wednesday...though
confidence in this type of flow isn`t exactly high end, as it
can sometimes be tough to pin down subtle embedded disturbances.
Highs on Sunday are cooler in the 20s-30s...with highs
potentially climbing into the 50s area-wide by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Lingering cloud cover kept temperatures a bit on the cooler side
today, although western areas have risen into the 40s as skies
clear. Tonight, temperatures are expected to dip to around 20
degrees...pretty close to climatological normals for early
December.

On Friday, the passage of a surface trough will switch winds to
the northwest. Mid and high-level cloud cover is expected to
increase through the day, but temperatures still are
anticipated to reach the 40s for most of the area.

On Saturday, a weak shortwave moving through the northwesterly
flow pattern will bring a chance for precipitation (mainly snow)
to parts of the area. Global ensembles continue to indicate that
the best potential for measurable snow will be to our east.
Additionally, most of the snow would be falling during the
daytime with temperatures in the 30s...not a great recipe for
meaningful snow accumulation. As such, the probability for 1"+
has decreased to only 10-15% in areas north and east of Grand
Island. A light dusting is the most likely outcome at this
point, and many areas will miss out entirely.

Colder air will rush into the area behind this shortwave,
resulting in noticably cooler day for Sunday. High temperatures
are expected to remain below freezing for most of the area.

Fortunately (or unfortunately if you are a winter-lover), this
cooldown won`t last long. The deep trough over the eastern CONUS
will shift eastward, and rising heights aloft will favor a
warmup for Monday/Tuesday. Ensembles currently favor Tuesday to
be the warmest day (upper 40s and 50s for most). Additional
northwesterly-flow shortwaves are expected to push through the
are for the middle to end of next week, but confidence in timing
is quite low. This could bring rain/snow to parts of the area,
but anything significant/impactful looks pretty unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions expected at both terminals
through the period as the MVFR stratus that impacted the
terminals earlier in the day has since eroded and only a mix of
mid/high level clouds and good VSBYs are expected through the
period.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, expect mostly
clear skies and light southwesterly winds less than 10 KTS to
prevail...eventually shifting and becoming NW behind a passing
trough during the morning hours Friday. Winds will eventually
increase and become gusty...to near 20-25KTS by mid-morning...
and then diminish to less than 8 KTS during the evening hours
Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Rossi