924
FXUS65 KGJT 210919
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
219 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated snow showers are expected through this evening
  generally above 7000 feet. Minimal impacts are expected.

- Another round of snow is possible early next week, primarily
  over the San Juans.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 214 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Two lows of interest are visible in water vapor imagery tonight
with the departing low sliding into the Great Plains, and an
incoming closed low turning southeastwards across SoCal. We are
firmly sandwiched between these systems with some heightened
moisture still present overhead. Though this is driving a few
rain and snow showers still, particularly over higher
elevations, deformation between these two lows is bringing our
environment from "very moist" to just "reasonably moist." This
is all to say not to expect any strong storm activity for the
next 36 to 48 hours, especially as CAM`s have become very
unenthusiastic regarding the possibility of continued widespread
precipitation.

Some patchy fog is already developing over portions of the San
Juans this morning just as it did last night, so don`t be
surprised if we see more fog development overnight. With
partially clear skies expected Saturday morning before sunrise,
lower overnight temperatures could yield more patchy fog as
well, though this will be dependent on just how much drying out
we see across the CWA today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 214 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

Models show good agreement with the cutoff low ejecting to the
northeast tracking across northern Baja Saturday evening and over
Arizona by Sunday morning. This track has it brushing the southern
face of the San Juans through the afternoon before pushing east of
the Divide onto the Front Range Sunday night. This storm doesn`t
carry a lot of moisture with it, but will still produce 25-75%
accumulations of five to nine inches new snow through the higher
terrain of the southern face of the San Juans Sunday morning
through Sunday evening. The biggest impacts will likely be on
Wolf Creek Pass where the southern fetch may pile up close to
ten inches snow by Sunday evening. Stay tuned on this one as it
may disrupt travel in the southern Mountains Sunday into Monday
morning.

As this storms moves on out onto the Plains Monday, ridging starts
building in over over the Eastern Pacific allowing the jet to dip
south over the Rockies bringing a colder northwesterly flow to
eastern Utah and Western Colorado next week. A dry cold front passes
Monday night dropping temperatures eight to ten degrees along and
north of the I-70 corridor. Can`t rule out a few light snow showers
in the mountains with this frontal passage, but no significant
accumulations are expected. Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning has
a shot of moisture descend out of the Pacific Northwest bringing
snow showers to the northern Colorado mountains possibly extending
south into the central mountains. It could bring a few inches snow
to the mountains, but it`s just too far out to say if this storm
will impact the holiday travel. Again, stay tuned for details on
this one as we go into the new week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow showers will
continue to impact terminals through 12z, then will taper off
from west to east. Showers will hang on the longest at the
highest elevation sites, but should come to an end for all sites
by 21z tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light and variable
across the region. KASE, KEGE, and KRIL will remain at or below
ILS breakpoints through at least 18z tomorrow, and will often
see MVFR to IFR conditions, especially KASE. Likewise, KTEX will
remain under IFR to LIFR conditions through at least 12z, then
will see periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. Remaining terminals
will see VFR conditions prevail, but will see periods below ILS
breakpoints due to low ceilings. Mountain obscuration will be an
issue through the period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT