215
FXUS65 KGJT 031010
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
310 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions continue for the first half of the new
  week.

- A slightly cooler and more unsettled weather pattern sets up
  for Thursday and beyond, with low-end (<40%) chances of
  precipitation across the northern mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Models are in good agreement with each other, and with satellite
imagery nine hours into the run indicating they initialized and are
tracking well with the pattern dominated by a strong zonal flow
across the northern half of the CONUS, high pressure centered over
the Big Bend National Park, and a weak openwave disturbance over
Tonopah NV tracking to the northeast through the Great Basin. This
disturbance will move across eastern Utah and Western Colorado this
afternoon and evening bringing periods of broken high clouds. Though
this system does have some jet support and favorable positive
vorticity advection (PVA) through the depth of the atmosphere, it is
moisture starved, especially in the lower levels, any convective
activity will only be in the upper layers resulting in light virga
with no impacts except for maybe some light turbulence air traffic.
Look for temperatures to climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal
today under the southwesterly warm air advection with thin broken
clouds this morning give way to heavier mid to high clouds this
afternoon as the shortwave passes over the region. Skies will clear
out overnight, and with falling heights due to a second passing
upper-level disturbance tomorrow, temperatures will cool a few
degrees over today, but it will still feel warm under mostly sunny
skies as this second system has even less moisture associated
bringing only few to scattered clouds to the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

The synoptic pattern by midweek across the the mid latitudes will
consist of flat zonal flow that transitions to a more amplified wave
pattern in the higher latitudes. Warm and dry conditions will
continue under this regime on Wednesday with a slight change coming
on Thursday as the wave pattern up North digs a bit farther into the
northern Rockies. This quickly passing wave will brush our northern
mountains with stronger winds aloft along an uptick in moisture
while a cool front drops through the northern valleys. A light
dusting of high altitude snow across the Park and Elkheads comes on
Thursday afternoon with minimal impacts expected. Another wave
quickly follows the first late Friday and brings another shot of
winds and moisture to the northern Colorado mountains and cooler air
down at the surface. Ensembles suggest less than 3 inches over the
higher snotels with these two passing waves. The pattern then
amplifies across the CONUS as this energy digs a trough across the
East and pumps a ridge across the West. So warmer and drier
conditions move back in for the bookend of this forecast period.
Of course downstream of this ridge is a deeper EPac trough and we
will await to see what this has in storm downstream for next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 957 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions continue through the period. A weak disturbance
working across the Southwest will bring some mid and upper level
ceilings to the region, but breakpoint conditions will not be a
problem. Winds remain light and terrain driven, with a few terrain
influenced gusts tomorrow afternoon. Skies clear and VFR conditions
will close out this period Monday evening.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT