481
FXUS65 KGJT 290522
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1022 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring measurable snow to the mountains with
  2-10 inches of new snow tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory is
  in place for the Elkheads, Park and Gore Range including
  Rabbit Ears and Vail Pass this evening through Saturday
  morning.

- Colder, unsettled conditions continue this weekend, with
  another round of measurable snow Sunday night into Monday
  expected to impact travel on our mountain passes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 253 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Some light radar returns are beginning to show up across the
north as the shortwave trough approaches the region with
scattered mid and high level cloud cover. Temperatures are
fairly mild with highs slightly above normal ahead of this wave.
A 110 kt jet will nose into northwest Utah and cut across
northwest Colorado this evening, allowing for the northwest
Colorado mountains to be in the favored left exit region of this
jet streak this evening through Saturday morning before it lifts
northeast out of the area. This is a quick hitting clipper like
system and in addition to a little bit of moisture to work with,
it will also bring in some cooler air. H7 temperatures will drop
to around the -8C to -12C range across the north so ratios will
be fairly efficient for snow production. The upper level jet
will also result in gusty winds of 45 kts across the high
terrain with breezy conditions with frontal passage in the lower
valleys overnight. The Park Range and Gore Range seem to be the
most favored for snowfall accumulation in the 3 to 8 inch range
on average with locally higher amounts up to 10 over Rabbit Ears
pass and up to 6 or so over Vail Pass. Given the combination of
the snow, wind and post-Thanksgiving travel impacts with road
conditions, decided to add the Gore Range above 10,000 feet
focused over Vail Pass (COZ010) to the Winter Weather Advisory
that already included the Elkheads and Park Range (COZ004). If
you are traveling, take your time and anticipate winter driving
conditions, especially over Rabbit Ears and Vail Passes.

Snow should gradually come to an end by late Saturday morning
with improving conditions Saturday afternoon as drier air moves
in behind this system. Temperatures are expected to drop by
about 5 to 10 degrees from today with as much as 15 degrees
colder across the northwest Colorado valleys and mountains.
However, conditions look to be partly sunny and dry by
afternoon with continued northwest flow and increasing high
clouds Saturday evening ahead of the next system dropping down
from the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

The next system to affect the area will be dropping down from
the PacNW late Saturday night. By Sunday morning, the upper
level trough and associated cold front will be situated over
southeastern Idaho. Supporting this feature will be an upper
level jet streak of 100+ kts and as it rounds the base of the
trough, will weaken to around 70kts. However, enough lift due
to divergence aloft and the approaching system will allow some
light snow to start overspreading the northern valleys and also
the northern mountains down to about Vail Pass Sunday morning.
As the trough and front continue to push through Sunday and
Monday morning, precipitation will overspread to just about the
entire CWA. A few differences with regards to timing still exist
but models continue to get into better agreement increasing
confidence in the forecast. The latest forecast has all the
higher terrain in Colorado receiving between 2 to 5 inches. The
Park Range and highest peaks of the West Elks and Elk Mountains
look to be the winners with amounts possibly reaching 8 inches.
Amounts are on the lower side due to moisture, or lack thereof
but wouldn`t be surprised to see these amounts change as the
very short range models start to get a handle on this system.
Either way, keep an eye on the forecast this coming weekend if
travelling or recreating in the High Country.

By noon Monday, precip will be over though a few isolated
showers will be possible along the Continental Divide. Have no
fear snow lovers, as another trough is expected to move in as
early as Tuesday night. As of now, large model discrepancies
exist so suffice to say that another chance for mountain snow
looks probable, mainly for northern mountains, Flat Tops, and
portions of the central mountains.

High temperatures will drop to seasonal averages Sunday and
then below for much of next week as reinforcing shots of cold
air move in with those upper level troughs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1001 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Light snow showers continue generally northeast of the line
KCAG-KASE with associated MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities.
These showers with some northwesterly gusts to about 20kts will
move east out of the region by about 12Z with some low ceilings
lingering in the mountain valleys through about 16Z. There are
also a few upslope clouds forming low ceilings around KTEX that
should move on out by about 12Z. Otherwise, look for VFR
conditions with light winds through the TAF period. Look for
mid-level clouds to start moving in from the northwest around
06Z ahead of the next storm system.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST Saturday for COZ004-010.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...DB