773
FXUS65 KGJT 190922
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
222 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy skies and isolated rain and snow showers are expected
  throughout this afternoon, though impacts will be minimal.

- Accumulating snowfall is possible through Friday morning.
  Impacts are expected to be the greatest over the San Juan
  Mountains where a Winter Weather Advisory is in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 218 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

We`ve still got some light rain meandering through the northwestern
reaches of Colorado, but measurable precipitation is low and impacts
are minimal. Per satellite imagery, a closed low has set up over
southern California with strong moisture advecting through the
desert southwest and the Great Basin. As the low transits
eastwards over the coming days, we`ll start seeing this surge
of moisture creep into our domain, bringing with it another
round of valley rain and mountain snow. Some light showers
primarily driven by orographics could develop over south-facing
slopes today, but the main event doesn`t arrive until tonight,
coinciding with the low opening up and becoming negatively
tilted. Deterministic models are suggesting favorable dynamics
for some stronger storms tomorrow as a result. Most of this
strong activity will be over the southern CWA, primarily the
Four Corners region (for rain) and the San Juans (for snow).

While snow accumulations over the San Juans have stayed relatively
consistent over the past few forecasts, coverage has steadily
decreased. There remains high confidence that we will hit
advisory-level snowfall in spite of this, and thus a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for the San Juans from 11pm
tonight through 11pm MST tomorrow. The heaviest snowfall (4 to 8
inches with localized higher amounts) is expected to be mostly
confined to above 9,000 ft, but some lighter accumulations and
localized heavier amounts cannot be ruled out at lower
elevations. Elsewhere in the CWA, namely the La Sals, Abajos,
Grand Mesa, and Central Colorado Mountains, accumulations are on
the rise. The NBM is still below 50% probability that 3+ inches
will fall over these areas, but the rising trends have caught
our eye. Should accumulations continue to rise, these zones have
the potential to be included in winter weather highlights later
today, so it is important to keep your eye for forecast updates
throughout the day.

While the strongest rain and snowfall is expected to end by the
time the clock turns to Friday, some lingering precipitation is
still likely throughout Friday morning. The storm system will
be favoring central and northern Colorado by this point, but
any further impacts should be minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 218 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

A few showers will persist Friday night into Saturday, mainly for
the northern and central mountains, but these will be isolated in
nature and decreasing in coverage as time goes on. As this occurs,
yet another area of low pressure will be just off the SoCal coast.
As this tracks into the desert southwest over the weekend,
inconsistencies have popped up with respect to the timing and track.
Sounding like a broken record here. One track brings the low
pressure center over the Four Corners bringing a round of precip for
the southern half of the CWA from Sunday morning through Monday
morning. Even if this should occur, QPF amounts are nothing to get
too excited about. Of course, another track keeps the low well to
our south with only a few showers, maybe, affecting the San Juans.
The NBM is giving the nod to the low pressure tracking further south
with barely any QPF for the CWA. We shall see. If this pans out, we
should see a nice weekend with partly cloudy skies and warming
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 935 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR should prevail at the TAF sites over most of the next 24
hours. There will be light showers lifting through portions of
far western Colorado and northeast Utah through the early
morning hours which could lead to temporary IlS conditions and
and outside chance of MVFR. Otherwise fairly cloudy forecast in
place but cigs should be at ILS or better through sunset.
Another round or precipitation will lift into the area by late
tomorrow evening and expect several terminal conditions to be
impacted by lower flight criteria through at least early
Friday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
     Thursday for COZ019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT