203
FXUS65 KGJT 171045
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
345 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow will continue through this afternoon.

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the San Juans,
  Grand Mesa, Flat Tops and northern mountains. Use caution.

- Cooler temperatures highlight the extended forecast with
  periodic chances for mountain snow through the end of the work
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Radar imagery shows ongoing precipitation in some areas of the
CWA. Rain is falling at lower elevations, and snow is falling in
the higher terrain, as shown by traffic cameras. Looking at
satellite imagery, the low pressure system impacting our area
seems to be centered near the northwest part of our CWA. By late
this morning, the center of the system will be to the northeast of
our region, and by the evening transitory ridging will build
aloft, bringing an end to precipitation from this event. Before
the conclusion, an additional inch or two of snow is possible
in the San Juans and central mountains through the late morning,
and an additional 4 to 8 inches may fall in the northern
mountains through this evening. So, Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect. From the additional snowfall, the greatest
accumulations are anticipated to occur above 9,000 feet, but
snow levels may fall near 7,000 feet this morning. The cooler
air mass moving in with this system will drop today`s high
temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees when compared to yesterday`s.
This brings our daytime temperatures to near seasonable for this
time of the year.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Confidence in the long term forecast remains low as models from run
to run have been inconsistent. The general notion of an area of low
pressure coming ashore along the southern West Coast Tuesday night
remains but the evolution and track of the low has been changing,
sometimes considerably. Previous runs showed this low pressure
moving across the CWA, other runs showed the low dropping well to
our south. The latest run opens the low up as it moves across
central AZ into NM while flow around the low brings some precip up
into our area Tuesday afternoon through noon Wednesday. Then a bit
of a lull before precip returns Thursday night through Friday night.
This run, models do appear to be in better agreement but a few more
runs would certainly help. As we head into the weekend, yet another
closed low drops down the West Coast to southern California before
making an eastward turn. Deterministic models then vary on the track
which will affect how much and where precip will fall. For the long
term then, unsettled weather will continue with what looks to be
more clouds than sun. Highs will be right around seasonal averages,
maybe a degree or three above.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 935 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR/ILS conditions are dominating the TAF late this evening with
MVFR/IFR conditions present over KTEX due to passing moderate
snow showers. Clouds and precipitation will continue to make for
a difficult TAF forecast for many areas overnight and well into
Monday afternoon. So a mix of VFR with low probability/tempo
MVFR conditions are forecast for the bulk of the western
Colorado TAF sites east of KGJT. Widespread terrain obscuration
can be expected through the next 24 hours as well.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     COZ004-009-013.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for COZ018-
     019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT