


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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377 FXUS65 KGJT 172317 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 517 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated light snow can be expected for the northern mountains Saturday morning, mostly above treeline. - Dry and tranquil conditions persist through the remainder of the weekend. - A weak clipper disturbance brings some non zero precipitation chances for the northern mountains Monday. - A more substantial system is coming into the picture for next Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The trailing edge of the upper level trough continues to drag through northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon. Some moisture spilling over the ridge along with difluent flow aloft is helping with scattered cloud cover sprouting on area terrain features(primarily north of the Colorado River). This feature hangs on into Saturday morning, with some isolated snow potential for the northern mountains along the Wyoming border. Trace to light snow above treeline is about all we can expect. Snow levels hover around 7500 feet Saturday morning, but dry lower layers of the atmosphere are going to soak up most of any moisture that falls. Overnight lows will hover around near normal across the region. Some cloud cover up north could keep temperatures a bit warmer overnight tonight for the Upper Yampa Basin. Northwesterly flow continues to spill over the ridge Saturday, keeping things pretty dry and temperatures on the cooler side of climatology by nearly 5 degrees. Clear skies will offer up plenty of sunshine for outdoor recreation Saturday. Temperatures cool to near normal Sunday morning, as neutral temperature advection takes over in the more westerly regime developing south of the retreating polar jet. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The long term period begins quiet while dry air remains in place. However, a trough that is expected to propagate across the Rocky Mountains overnight Sunday into Monday may bring impacts to the northern Colorado terrain. The trough will carry a weak push of moisture, which will briefly elevate PWATs to 125-150% of normal in our CWA during the trough passage. Pretty much all of the upper level support associated with this system will remain to our north, so it seems the small amount of precipitation we get will be a product of favorable orographics in northwesterly flow. Drier air returns during the day Monday, and will remain in place until midweek when Pacific moisture advects into our region from flow around a low pressure system. As the low pressure system approaches our region, there is potential for it to bring somewhat widespread precipitation to the CWA. Model disagreement keeps confidence low regarding the details, so we will have to see how the forecast for this system evolves as the models begin to find agreement. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 514 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Aside from some passing high clouds, skies remain mostly clear. A few locations north of I-70 are seeing gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon, but these will diminish after sunset. Skies remain clear, and winds will follow typical terrain driven patterns. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds are expected tomorrow afternoon, with gusts to 25 knots possible at most terminals. Clouds will increase for areas close to the border with Wyoming, mainly affecting KHDN and KVEL, but they should remain well above any breakpoints. VFR conditions will prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...GF AVIATION...TGJT