051
FXUS65 KGJT 102315
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
415 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures 10-15 degrees above average continue through
  Thursday, under variable skies.

- A pattern shift accompanied by an atmospheric river could
  bring the first substantial snowfall to our southern mountains
  Friday.

- Temperatures this weekend and beyond trend much cooler behind
  the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Warm, dry conditions remain on the docket through Thursday, thanks
to the arcing ridge of high pressure over the West. Scattered to
broken high clouds continue to stream over the ridge. While not
really pertinent to significant weather, these clouds will likely
impact afternoon highs the next couple of days. Regardless,
temperatures will trend in excess of 10 to 15 degrees above November
climatology by Thursday. For those squeezing in outdoor projects,
recreation, etc., a few more days of mild weather can be counted on
before the pattern shift discussed below arrives.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

A pattern change sets up for the end of the week, as another AR and
attendant trough moves into the West Coast. This AR is set to be a
bit different from the last few we`ve seen, as this one will stream
down the coast and sneak into the southern Great Basin via southern
California. This is a favorable trajectory to bring substantial
moisture into the Four Corners. Current ensemble guidance has 150-
200% of normal PWATs by Thursday night, peaking late Friday with 200-
250% of normal values. Likewise, guidance from the Center for
Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) is highlighting a
favorable stream of integrated vapor transport (IVT) Thursday night
into Friday. All this moisture will stream in on southwesterly flow
aloft, which is promising for accumulating snow over the southern
mountains. Particularly, moist southwesterly flow strongly favors
orographic snow over the southern San Juans. Now, there is less
confidence regarding what happens with the approaching trough.
Guidance is in agreement that energy at the base of the trough will
cut off to form a closed low as the trough moves inland, but there
are significant discrepancies as to when it will cut off and where
it will track. Interestingly, in run to run comparisons, guidance is
tracking this cutoff low more and more southward and has slowed it
down considerably. The midnight forecast package was highlighting
Thursday night into Friday as the period with the highest
probability  of accumulating snow. That period has shifted to Friday
night into Saturday, both in model guidance and in guidance from the
WSSI-P, which still has a high probability of minor impacts (50-
70%), but which is now starting Friday evening and lasting through
the day Saturday. Interestingly, the probability for moderate
impacts, including hazardous driving conditions, has dropped to just
10-20% during the same period. This could be a reflection of the
more southerly track of the low, which would limit synoptic support
for heavier snowfall and therefore limit accumulations and impacts.
Minor impact potential stretches into the central mountains (30-50%)
and the northern mountains (10-30%) as well.

For the rest of the region, rain will be the most likely
precipitation type. Temperatures on Friday, under warm and moist
southwesterly flow, will be 5-10 degrees above normal. This will
limit temperatures cold enough for snow to elevations above 9000
feet or so, until temperatures drop Friday evening. Valley rain will
come to an end by Saturday morning, though mountain snow will
linger. Temperatures will be much colder behind this system, with
highs running 5-10 degrees below normal Saturday and Sunday, with
some paces as cold as 15 degrees below normal close to the Wyoming
border.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 414 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Passing high cloudiness and light winds make up the forecast for
area TAFs the next 24 hours...so VFR is highly probable to
continue to dominate the forecast.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT