244
FXUS65 KGJT 240905
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
205 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures fluctuate from near normal to above normal by
  late week.

- Other than a couple rounds of snow showers in the northern
  mountains conditions remain dry for most locations this week.

- A stronger weather system could impact holiday travel across
  the Intermountain West next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 107 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

The low pressure is currently lifting out over the Plains so most of
the showers have come to an end. Low stratus and fog is possible for
places that received precipitation yesterday. Lows will be warmer
than expected where the clouds stick around all night. Some
locations will see mostly sunny skies today before more clouds
spread in from the northwest. That is the moisture associated with
the next shortwave trough, which will track over the Northern
Rockies and Northern Plains. The wave pushes a cold front into the
area tonight. Limited moisture along with steep lapse rate
behind the front will result in orographic snow showers for the
northern mountains especially tomorrow morning. Given the lack
of lift and meager moisture snow amounts are not impressive.
Perhaps a few inches are possible in the highest elevations in
the Park Range, Elkheads, Flat Tops and Gore Range. High
temperatures tomorrow drop 5-10 degrees along and north of I-70
compared to Monday due to the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Modest moisture returns from the northwest on Wednesday, though this
plume will still be relatively mild. As such, this bump in moisture
will probably only support light showers over the northern Colorado
mountains where orographics are favorable. Through this mostly-quiet
stretch, temperatures will be on the rise, reaching 5-10 degrees
above normal on Thursday and Friday.

We are still monitoring the potential for a strong winter storm
beginning Saturday, but the continued lacking model agreement is
giving us little to work off of at the moment. The greatest
uncertainty comes from ensembles failing to showing a great signal
on the amplitude of the low and its moisture content. Though we can
only speculate on much of the details right now, models are
suggesting that Sunday into Monday will be the most potent stretch
of this storm. Where impacts would even be felt is the big question
though, and we will have to wait until guidance converges before
elaborating on the finer details.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM
MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Precipitation has mostly come to an end across the region, with
the exception of a few lingering mountain snow showers. Most of
the cloud coverage is moving out of the region as well, but
overnight some low stratus and or fog may cause TAF site impacts
at KTEX, KDRO, and potentially at other sites that received
precipitation. Mid and high level clouds look to move into the
northern half of the CWA this morning. Winds are expected to be
light.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT