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FXUS65 KGJT 092206
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
306 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions prevail this week.

- The potential for mountain snow and valley rain increases late
  in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

The ridge set up over the western CONUS will persist as we enter
the work week. Conditions are dry and skies are clear as a
result. Look for afternoon high temperatures to steadily warm
to a handful of degrees above normal tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

Broad, anticyclonic flow across the West will continue Tuesday. High
temperatures will begin to approach 10 degrees above climatology
thanks to generous subsidence beneath the ridge. By Thursday, highs
in our lower deserts will be nearly 70 degrees with areas around the
Four Corners exceeding 70. Some scattered cloud cover will continue
to spill across the ridge this week, filtering some of the sunlight.
Winds will remain light though, with some afternoon gusts on the
terrain during peak heating.

Pattern shift becomes evident on Thursday as stronger
southwesterly flow ahead of a Pacific storm sets up across the
Southwest. Ensemble guidance continues to advertise an atmospheric
river(AR), although much of the richest moisture stays south of us
in New Mexico. Nonetheless, this will be our first opportunity at
measurable precipitation this coming week. At the moment, it looks
like a Friday morning arrival with continuing precipitation into the
weekend. Warm air ahead of this system will likely take a moment to
get displaced Friday before our mountain zones convert to snow. So,
it`s a little premature to get into snowfall at this point in the
conversation. However, weekend travelers, outdoor enthusiasts, etc.
will want to keep an eye on local forecasts for mountain locales
Friday and beyond. Deterministic models show precipitation waning by
Sunday, except for along the Continental Divide. Temperatures this
weekend are expected to be significantly cooler in the
wake of the cold front. Hopefully everyone gets to enjoy a couple
more of these warm autumn days before the calendar and the weather
return to alignment.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1027 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR flying conditions will continue across the region. Light
winds with a few terrain enhanced gusts this afternoon at KASE
and KTEX can be expected. Skies remain mostly clear with thin
high clouds transitioning to clear skies overnight.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT