204
FXUS65 KGJT 261717
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1017 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures highlight the Thanksgiving Day
  forecast.

- Other than periodic light snow showers in the northern
  mountains, conditions remain dry through Friday.

- A weather system could impact holiday travel across the
  Intermountain West this weekend with wintery conditions in the
  mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1256 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Northwest flow is well established over the region. A diminishing
plume of moisture will pass through northern central Colorado today.
It may result in light orographic snow showers in the northern
mountains with with no impacts. This flow is actually advecting
warmer temperatures into the area so low level lapse rates are not
very steep. This could end up inhibiting any showers today and
tomorrow. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal and
should come up a few degrees tomorrow. The moisture passing through
the region will result in partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Relatively quiet conditions with temperatures 5-10 degrees above
normal will linger through Friday, before a shift to a cooler and
wetter pattern for the weekend and beyond. Models have come into
decent agreement that a wave will drop southeast out of the Pacific
Northwest and clip the northern half of the region beginning late
Friday night and into Saturday. Models still disagree a bit over how
far south precipitation will reach, but do agree that with this
clipper, precipitation will be confined to elevations above 9000
feet. With only modest moisture to work with but colder air in
place, this clipper is set to bring an inch or two to the northern
and central mountains. Following a brief break on Saturday, the next
wave drops southeast late Saturday into Sunday. Models seem to be
coming into better consensus with this second wave, as there seems
to now be good agreement in terms of timing and placement of the
wave. That said, there have been substantial run-to-run changes with
each new round of data over the last several runs, so despite the
seemingly good agreement in the forecast, confidence remains low
(<40%). However, there could be substantial impacts with this
system, as it is still within the post-Thanksgiving travel period,
impacting the region Sunday afternoon through Monday. Even a few
inches of snowfall at pass level could cause travel difficulties.
The Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index is currently
highlighting a 40-50% likelihood of minor impacts during this
period, which would include winter driving conditions, and a 10-20%
likelihood of moderate impacts, which includes hazardous driving
conditions. All that to say, if you`re planning on travelling this
weekend, especially Friday or Sunday-Monday, keep a close eye on the
forecast and stay on top of any changes.

With the arrival of the first wave Friday night into Saturday,
temperatures will fall to near-normal values. With the second wave,
temperatures are expected to drop to around 5 degrees below normal.
With this cooler and wetter pattern settling in, it seems it will
finally start to feel like winter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1010 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Expect VFR conditions with generally light winds through the
TAF period. The exceptions will be some gusts to 20 kts at
mountain TAF sites. mid to high ceilings will persist through
the day with areas of clearing skies overnight into tomorrow.
KASE, KEGE and KRIL will see periods of ceilings below ILS
breakpoints through about 02Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...DB