073
FXUS65 KGJT 152042
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
142 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are
  expected tomorrow especially in the afternoon and evening.
  Showers may linger in the higher terrain on Monday.

- Accumulating snow is expected tomorrow afternoon through
  Monday afternoon with amounts ranging from 3 to 8 inches,
  generally above 10,000 feet, with locally higher amounts
  possible.

- Temperatures will be closer to normal most of next week. A
  second system could bring another round of precipitation on
  Tuesday through late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Tomorrow the low pressure system that has been hanging around
Southern California will finally impact our area. The system is
expected to bring modest moisture and a cold front, which will
result in widespread precipitation. Scattered showers are
possible in the morning, and by the afternoon they should become
more widespread. Frontogenesis looks to be well organized with
this low so expect that to be the main focus for precip
development, which is supported by a majority of the high-res
models. It will move from southwest to northeast in the
afternoon and evening. There looks to be enough instability for
scattered thunderstorms as well. In fact, QPF has gone up in
spots due to this convective element showing up. Warm
temperatures ahead of the storm means that snow levels start out
around 10 kft and perhaps drop down to 8 kft by Monday morning.
Convection could force snow levels down faster, but road temps
could limit accumulation and impacts. None the less any impacts
will be generally be above 9-10 kft. The low pressure and front
exit the area Monday morning, so expect coverage of rain and
snow showers to decrease. Showers are possible in the afternoon
due to lingering moisture and steep lapse rates in the low
levels mainly in the northern mountains. Rates are expected to
be on the lighter side at that time. By Monday evening most of
the showers come to an end. A majority of the mountain ranges
should benefit from snowfall with totals around 3-8 inches in
general above 9 kft with locally higher amounts possible. Cooler
temperatures closer to seasonable normals are expected behind
the front on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

An active weather pattern remains in place through the seven-
day forecast, but forecast confidence is much lower Tuesday and
beyond.

Another low pressure system is set to drop into the Desert
Southwest early this week. The track of the low is very
different amongst and between ensemble families so there is
quite a bit of uncertainty to contend with. In general,
additional mountain snowfall is expected favoring the southern
mountains. There is decent agreement on the slow-moving nature
of this low, so someone is bound to get a health dose of
precipitation from this system. Current guidance favors Arizona
and New Mexico, but some of that better moisture and forcing
could extend north into the San Juans.

Precipitation chances decrease as the week wears on with model
guidance continuing to diverge. That being said, the overall
weather pattern remains unsettled so those with outdoor/travel
plans will want to keep a close eye on the forecast. Alongside
periodic precipitation chances, temperatures gradually cool
throughout the week with unseasonably cold conditions taking
hold midweek and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1032 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with
increasing clouds tonight into tomorrow as a weather system
approaches from the west. Winds increase from west to east
tomorrow morning as well, with preciptation and low ceilings
likely beyond 18z tomorrow.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT