549
FXUS65 KGJT 012020
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
220 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure is in control, with clear skies and much above
  normal temperatures prevailing through at least midweek.

- A slightly cooler and more unsettled pattern looks to set up
  for Thursday and beyond, with low-end (<30%) chances of
  precipitation across the norther mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Ridging is building in across the West today, with the center of the
high located over Southern California. Across eastern Utah and
western Colorado, we remain under northerly flow, with some upper
level moisture creating some high and mid-level clouds. Otherwise,
conditions are pleasant, with high temperatures expected to top a
few degrees above normal. Skies will clear out tonight, with
conditions primed for good radiational cooling, so expect another
chilly morning tomorrow. Ridging moves more directly overhead
tomorrow, bringing strong warm air advection and highs running close
to 10 degrees above normal across the region. The lower desert
valleys will see temperatures in the low to mid-70s and mountain
towns will see mid-40s to low 50s. Lows tomorrow night will be a bit
more mild, thanks to the continued warm air advection. Clear skies
and light winds will dominate through the period, treating us all to
some gorgeous late fall weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The upper level ridge overhead flattens out early next week giving
way to a more zonal upper level flow pattern. High temperatures will
stabilize around 10 degrees above normal through Wednesday. Although
some mid to upper level moisture may linger into Monday, drier air
returns Monday afternoon and remains in place through Wednesday.

A pattern change is likely by Thursday as ripples of shortwave
energy propagates through the upper level flow, mainly north of I-
70. The most noticeable artifact this energy`s passage will be
"cooler" high temperatures (~5 degrees above seasonal normals).
There is also the potential for some light rain/snow showers over
the northern mountains (15-30% chance), but forecast trends continue
to support a weaker, drier system. Forecast confidence decreases
beyond Thursday, but EC and GEFS ensemble members are keying in on
next weekend for another shot at some light precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Some passing high clouds, and a some mid level clouds over the
higher elevations of the northern mountains, continue to stream
over the region. These clouds will be with us through much of
the rest of the day, but will clear up after about 03z. Winds
remain light and generally terrain driven. VFR conditions will
prevail. There is a slight risk for ceilings to drop below ILS
breakpoints at KASE, KEGE, and KRIL this afternoon, but that
threat will diminish after 00z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT