745
FXUS65 KGJT 130426
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
926 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- If clouds cooperate, the Aurora Borealis will be visible on
  the northern horizon tonight after sunset, with best viewing
  times typically between 10PM and 2AM.

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue through Thursday
  under variable skies.

- An active weather pattern sets up late this week and beyond bringing
  periods of mountain rain/snow, valley rain, and more
  seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 109 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Ridging crests over the region today, keeping warm, dry, and overall
quiet conditions in control. Changes are on the way, and we`ll begin
to see them starting tonight. Flow aloft switches to southwesterly
this evening as the ridge axis pushes east and a trough digs down
the West Coast. A modest 70-80 knot southwesterly jet ahead of the
trough will nose into the region, bringing increased warm air and
increased upper level moisture. This means increased mid and high
level clouds tracking over the area starting tonight, keeping
overnight lows mild. Additionally, the warm, moist airmass will help
temperatures to jump to 10-15 degrees above normal tomorrow
afternoon, with desert valleys in the mid 60s to low 70s, and
mountain towns climbing into the 50s. There is some question as to
how much of an impact the clouds will have on these temperatures.
Areas where clouds stick around into the afternoon, particularly for
areas south of I-70, could see afternoon highs a few degrees cooler
than deterministic guidance suggests. This is mostly nitpicking
though, as temperatures will run well above normal and it will be a
very pleasant late fall day. Tomorrow night will be milder, thanks
to the continuing moisture and warm air advection.

The Aurora Borealis is slated to make another appearance tonight,
and should be visible across eastern Utah and western Colorado. The
biggest concern, though, are those increasing mid and high level
clouds. Unfortunately, things aren`t looking great, with guidance
all indicating broken to overcast skies through the night. There is
some indication of breaks in the clouds appearing after 9PM, and
according to the Space Weather Prediction Center (swpc.noaa.gov)
peaking viewing hours are generally between 10PM and 2AM local time.
So be sure to keep your eyes to the skies, and checking in with SWPC
for updated aurora forecasts and information. And enjoy those
aurora!

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Attention turns to a low pressure system currently making landfall
in Southern California. We will not see precipitation associated
with that low until late Saturday into Sunday, but until then clouds
do increase. This storm does have a modest atmospheric river that
will come in from the southwest, which typically favor the southern
and central mountains. PWAT anomalies are forecasted to peak above
200% of normal on Sunday. Confidence is increasing that this will
fuel abundant moisture, and that forcing from the passage of the low
pressure system will support a widespread precipitation event across
the region. This is definitely a change from the benign weather
pattern the past few weeks. However, confidence in timing and track
of the storm is still low due to model inconsistencies. Ensembles
continue to favor Sunday for the passage of the system through our
region. The period of warm temperatures preceding this event does
allow for some uncertainty with where snow levels will be during
this system. Snow levels are presently expected to remain above 9000
ft during the daytime hours, but may drop closer to 7500 ft as
temperatures cool overnight. Models are still uncertain with a
second system dropping down across the west. Most of them agree that
we will have a break or lull in the precipitation centered around
Tuesday, with the next system potentially starting on Wednesday.
Given this is +5 days out we need to let the models come into better
agreement before getting the details. The other side to this story
is that temperatures will cool down closer to normal and perhaps
below normal starting on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 926 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Broken ceilings at or above 15kft agl can be expected through
sunrise as a batch of high altitude moisture moves through.
Skies should clear through the morning hours on Thursday with
light winds staying in place. VFR prevails in the forecast over
the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT