849
FXUS65 KGJT 081157
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
457 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will continue through the morning hours over the
  northern Divide Mountains with 1 to 3 inches mainly above
  9,000 feet. Mountain passes may become slippery!

- Dry conditions move in this weekend and remain in place for
  much of next week with temperatures warming to above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

Light snow began over the Park Range just after midnight as
expected but not much appears to be sticking or accumulating at
this time. We are seeing some weak lift associated with a
shortwave moving through the northwest flow as an upper level
trough remains parked across much of the eastern CONUS. A
shortwave trough is moving through the northern High Plains,
dragging the tail end of a cold front through northwest
Colorado early this morning. Much of the forcing is northeast
of our CWA, but the Park Range is clipped by the southern edge
of a 100 kt upper level jet streak, so we are seeing some weak
orographic lift across the Elkheads and Park Range which when
combined with some weak low and mid level lapse rates, is
resulting in some light snow according to cams at Steamboat Ski
area. The latest model guidance has decreased snowfall amounts
so we are now looking at 1 to 3 inches possible above 9,000 feet
over the Park range and trace amounts for the Flattops and Vail
Pass through the morning hours. Most shower activity should
come to an end by noon as the jet and forcing associated with
the shortwave trough moves further east and lifts out of our
CWA. Some lingering light northwest orographic flow could
produce a few flurries through early afternoon, but for the most
part, conditions should be improving with skies clearing from
the west as drier air moves in.

High pressure will build out west and influence our weather this
afternoon through the remainder of the weekend with northerly
flow still overhead. Temperatures today will remain cooler like
yesterday, with highs near seasonable for much of the area,
although highs will be around 5 degrees below normal across the
north and 5 degrees above normal across the south. We are
expecting to warm up slightly by Sunday with dry conditions and
highs around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

High pressure remains in place with northwesterly flow aloft
for much of the week ahead. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions
follow suit.

There is increasing potential for moisture from an Atmospheric
River to arrive late in the week. Ensemble guidance shows
considerable spread in the storm track and strength of this
system, so confidence in the details is low at this time.
However, it looks to be our best chance at widespread
precipitation in well over a month. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 452 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

Light showers will continue periodically throughout the morning,
with -RA at KHDN and -SN over the northern Divide mountains.
Impact to TAF sites from snow remains low. CIGS will be near
ILS breakpoints among these northwest Colorado sites down to
KASE with VFR conditions expected. Skies will clear this
afternoon with improving CIGS and occasional breezy conditions
with gusts 20 to 30 mph at times, particularly across higher
terrain sites along the Divide and KDRO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT