167
FXUS65 KGJT 151153
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
453 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry and warm conditions persist through the
  beginning of the weekend, with increased cloud cover.

- Accumulating snow is expected Sunday afternoon through midday
  Monday with amounts ranging from 2 to 8 inches, generally
  above 10000 feet, with locally higher amounts possible.

- Temperatures drop to near normal values by Monday, with
  potential for below normal temperatures later in the week as
  an active pattern brings more cooler and unsettled weather to
  the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 219 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Warm and dry conditions will continue through tonight, although
cloud cover will increase throughout the day. A low pressure
system off the coast of California is expected to be centered
over Nevada by Sunday morning. Southwesterly flow around the
system will advect an abundance of moisture into our region,
allowing for PWATs above 200% of normal across the entire CWA
on Sunday. As forcing moves in Sunday morning, precipitation
will begin, but the peak rates are expected to occur Sunday
afternoon and evening as the greatest upper level support moves
through, in addition to a cold front.

Warm southwesterly flow has allowed for a stretch of well above
normal high temperatures, so even much of the highest
elevations have been warming to above freezing temperatures
during the day. As such, uncertainty exists regarding snow
levels, how much snow will be able to accumulate, and when snow
will fall at a level which is impactful, especially considering
mountain pass driving conditions. As snow falls, and as colder
air moves in with this system, snow levels are expected to drop,
but this may not be until Sunday evening. Currently, snow
levels are not expected to drop below 10,000 ft in the Colorado
mountains until after sunset on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 219 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

By Sunday night, more widespread precip will be moving across the
CWA along a cold front that will be located along the UT/CO border.
As the night progresses, the front will continue moving eastward and
will be the focus of valley rain and mountain snow. It`s during this
time that the heaviest precip is expected from around 9PM through
3AM as the front is moving fairly quickly. Snow levels are forecast
to remain around 10K ft, dropping to 7.5K-8K ft by daybreak Monday.
Snow levels and antecedent warm conditions are what prevented any
highlights with this mornings package. After discussion with PUB,
some concern remains if the system comes in slower than advertised,
southwesterly flow keeps temps warmer, or slightly drier conditions
move in. Speaking of, previous runs were calling this an atmospheric
river event as it moved across the area but now it`s not being
defined as such. While confidence is increasing with this system,
some uncertainty remains so a model run should really nail down the
specifics. All that being said, a quick burst of heavy snow
overnight Sunday into Monday morning is still possible. Below 11K
feet, 2 to 5 inches of new snow is possible, above 11K feet is
where the heaviest snow of 6 to 8 inches with locally higher
amounts remain possible. The San Juans remain favored for the
most snowfall with the higher elevations of the Grand Mesa,
northern mountains, and portions of the central mountains also
seeing some accumulating snow.

Some showery activity will continue Monday, diminishing in coverage
through the day. The next system will be dropping down the West
Coast Monday and by Tuesday may already cause some precip to move
into the area. However, discrepancies between models on the timing,
location and movement of this next system is fairly high not to
mention consistency between model runs. Confidence is on the low
side at the moment but there is still plenty of time to work out
these differences. Temperatures by this time will be more seasonal
though so that part of the equation will, hopefully, not be as much
of a concern as it is for the first storm. Either way, unsettled
weather looks to be the consensus for the remainder of the long term
period. Temps will be right around average, if not a degree or two
above, and then possibly dropping slightly below to end out the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 439 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Cloud cover is causing lower ceilings at some sites, including
a periodic drop below ILS breakpoints at KASE. These lower
ceilings are not expected to persist, but high level clouds, and
some mid level, will increase in coverage through the day as a
low pressure system approaches. Light winds and VFR conditions
are expected to prevail through the period as precipitation from
the incoming system is not expected to begin until after 12Z
Sunday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT