981
FXUS65 KGJT 132058
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
158 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue through Saturday
  under variable skies.

- Chances for precipitation increase on Sunday morning and
  continue through Monday mid day.

- Snow accumulation is likely above 9,000 feet, with totals
  generally range from 3-8 inches with localized amounts
  upwards of 12 inches possible.

- The pattern remains active next week so there will be
  additional chances for precipitation with temperatures closer
  to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 120 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Southwest flow has developed ahead of a strong low pressure off the
coast of California. That system will gradually track southward just
offshore over the next few days, and will be sending mid to high
level clouds to our region at times. Despite this increased moisture
no precipitation is expected until Sunday. Southwest flow will keep
temperatures 10-20 degrees above average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

While there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the details
of the upcoming weekend storm, guidance is slowly coming into better
agreement. We kick off the long term period under a southeast to
northwest oriented ridge, with strong, warm, and moist southerly to
southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, the well advertised
Pacific low will be sitting just off the coast of Southern
California, with rich AR moisture absolutely drenching the LA Basin.
Some of this moisture will advect into the southern Great Basin on
the southwesterly flow, with forecast PWATs of 150-200% of normal
reaching eastern Utah and western Colorado by Saturday morning. This
will keep mid to high level clouds around across the area, and keep
temperatures well above normal. Temperatures will continue to run 10-
15 degrees above normal, and in some places will even run close to
20 degrees above normal. The low itself starts tracking inland
Saturday night, reaching somewhere around the southern
California/Nevada border by Sunday morning. There`s still
disagreement over exactly where the low will track, and at what
speed, but there is decent agreement that the weak jet and diffluent
flow aloft out ahead of the low will trigger showers over southeast
Utah and southwest Colorado by daybreak. Precipitation fills in over
the course of the day as the low transitions from closed to an open
wave and begins to lift northeast, with the best synoptic lift
passing near, if not directly over, the area. Moisture also peaks
during this period, with forecast PWATs of 200-250% of normal. With
a colder system, this would potentially bring some substantial
mountain snow. However, there is not much cold air to be found,
especially with several days of abnormally warm conditions prior to
this storm`s arrival. Temperatures at 700 hPa, which is roughly the
height of most of our mountain peaks, remain above freezing until
Sunday evening. And likewise, forecast snow levels remain above
10000 feet until late Sunday night. Colder air finally filters in by
Monday morning, with snow levels dropping to 7000-8000 feet, but by
this point moisture and lift will already be moving northeast of the
area. So for areas below about 8000 feet, this system will produce
all rain, with a rain/snow mix above, transitioning to all snow
above 10000 feet. There also could be a chance for some
thunderstorms during the day on Sunday, as the peak moisture and
strongest lift track through the area. Precipitation tapers off
Monday morning, with snow showers lingering longest along the
Divide. During this period, snow could fall as low as 7000-8000
feet, but accumulations will be light. Temperatures will be much
cooler, near to a few degrees below normal across the area.

Transient ridging builds in Monday afternoon as the weekend storm
departs for the Northern Plains, and the next wave moves toward the
West Coast. There is still much uncertainty with this system, with
some guidance have a faster open wave and others favoring a slower
closed low. There`s some indication of a second AR accompanying this
next wave, but at this point it seems weaker than its predecessor.
What this potential second system does have that the first did not
is cold air. We stay near normal on Monday and Tuesday, and then
this second system brings a reinforcing shot of cold air that drops
temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal. This would mean higher snow
ratios over the mountains, and therefore higher snow accumulations
despite potentially less moisture overall. Certainly something to
keep an eye on in the coming days, as we`ve seen that the forecast
can change a lot just within a twelve hour period with these types
of unsettled patterns. Winter does finally seem to be on its way
though.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1011 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Mid and high level clouds will be on the increase from south to
north today, bringing scattered to eventually broken skies
mainly south of I-70 by 00z. Otherwise, skies remain mostly
clear. Winds will start off following typical terrain driven
patterns but will gradually switch to southwesterly to westerly
this afternoon and evening, before becoming light and terrain
driven once again overnight. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT