


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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050 FXUS65 KGJT 181042 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 442 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated light snow can be expected for the northern mountains this morning, mostly above treeline. - Dry and tranquil conditions persist through the remainder of the weekend. - A weak clipper system brings chances for showers in the northern mountains Monday. - Another system is coming into the picture for mid week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 115 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A shortwave trough tracking over Montana and Wyoming will clip northern portions of the CWA today. It will bring the chance for snow showers in the northern and central mountains mainly along the Divide. A few inches are possible in the highest elevations with minor to no impacts. Northwest flow on the back side of the trough keeps temperatures below normal later today and allows gusty winds in the mountains. Midlevel flow starts to go zonal tomorrow causing high temperatures to rise 5-10 degrees. The next system moves into the Northern Rockies pushing moisture back into the region mainly in the form of clouds until tomorrow night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The long term period begins quiet while dry air remains in place. However, a trough that is expected to propagate across the Rocky Mountains overnight Sunday into Monday may bring impacts to the northern Colorado terrain. The trough will carry a weak push of moisture, which will briefly elevate PWATs to 125-150% of normal in our CWA during the trough passage. Pretty much all of the upper level support associated with this system will remain to our north, so it seems the small amount of precipitation we get will be a product of favorable orographics in northwesterly flow. Drier air returns during the day Monday, and will remain in place until midweek when Pacific moisture advects into our region from flow around a low pressure system. As the low pressure system approaches our region, there is potential for it to bring somewhat widespread precipitation to the CWA. Model disagreement keeps confidence low regarding the details, so we will have to see how the forecast for this system evolves as the models begin to find agreement. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 440 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Clouds are expected at KHDN, KASE and KEGE through the morning. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds are expected this afternoon, with gusts to 25 knots possible at most terminals. VFR conditions will prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ002-005-022. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...GF AVIATION...TGJT