217
FXUS65 KGJT 101004
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
304 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions prevail through Thursday.

- The potential for mountain snow and valley rain increases late
  this week into the coming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

A ridge of high pressure will build across the west and remain
in control of our weather through much of the coming week with
dry conditions. Weak warm air advection will take place through
the middle of the week with temperatures warming to 5 to 10
degrees above normal. Some of this warming may be tempered a bit
though due to high cloud cover moving through from time to time
as the ridge remains "dirty", due to high level Pacific moisture
advecting through the flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

A pattern change arrives late in the week, most likely sometime
on Thursday. Key model differences in the strength, timing, and
impacts continues to lead to lower forecast confidence overall,
but let`s take a look at what we know at this time.

Southwesterly flow sets up over the western CONUS for the
second half of the week bringing moisture from an Atmospheric
River to the Intermountain West late Wednesday into Thursday,
peaking on Friday. A low pressure system follows closely behind.
Upslope flow will team up with synoptic lift upstream of the
low to support widespread precipitation, most likely falling as
mountain snow and valley rain. The track and strength of this
low pressure system is highly variable amongst ensemble members
in each ensemble family leading to key differences in
temperature, storm residence, precipitation amounts, and thus
storm impacts. No clear trend is evident yet with models
continuing to flip flop between different scenarios. The highest
probability for accumulating snowfall is currently Thursday
night through Friday. The WSSI-P shows a high probability
(50-70% chance) of minor winter storm impacts over the San Juans
with a medium (30-60%) likelihood for minor winter storm
impacts over other area mountain ranges. There`s also a low
probability (10-30% chance) of moderate winter storm impacts,
like hazardous driving conditions, over the San Juans.

Despite our lower confidence in precipitation timing, type, and
quantity, confidence in cooler air arriving behind the low
pressure system is much higher. The most recent run of the NBM
supports weekend high temperatures as low as 5 to 15 degrees
below normal for mid November.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 943 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period with a few mid
to high clouds and light terrain driven winds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT