211
FXUS65 KGJT 250502
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1002 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures fluctuate from near normal to above normal by
  late in the workweek.

- Other than a couple rounds of snow showers in the northern
  mountains conditions remain dry for most locations this week.

- A stronger weather system could impact holiday travel across
  the Intermountain West this weekend, but details still remain
  unclear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 138 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Mostly clear skies and dry weather will prevail through the
afternoon as drier, northwesterly flow settles into our region.
A shortwave trough passing mostly to our north, and an
associated cold front that will drop into the region, in
addition to the orographics from northwesterly flow, will
support snowfall in the northern and central mountains tonight.
The timing of the snowfall will align with the timing of the
cold front, as low atmospheric moisture means the additional
lift from the front is important. Given the limited moisture,
not much is expected in terms of accumulating snow, but at most
a few inches are possible in the highest elevations of the Park
Range. Other areas of the northern mountains, and the central
mountains, are expected to get less than an inch of accumulating
snow, if any at all. Snow should end by the early morning
hours. Fog may once again impact some valley areas overnight.
The front passage will drop high temperatures by a few degrees
tomorrow when compared to today, but otherwise expect another
mostly sunny and dry day tomorrow. Overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday another round of light snowfall is possible in the
northern mountains as northwesterly flow continues, and a weak
wave of energy passes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

We remain under a northwesterly flow regime through late in the
week with seasonal to slight above normal temperatures and mostly
dry conditions. Periodic flurries are possible over the northern
mountains at times due to favorable orographic lift, but measurable
snow is not anticipated at this time.

A pattern change arrives Friday/Friday night through the weekend as
a broad upper-level trough passes through the western CONUS. This
system`s timing and impacts remain unclear at this time due to model
differences, but in general we are looking at mountain snow,
precipitation in the valleys (rain? snow? mix?), and cooler
temperatures. One model solution calls for little to no impacts
until Saturday night while others have a round of precipitation
Friday night into Saturday and another round late Sunday into
Monday. Timing will be of the essence with holiday travel in full
swing so we will continue to provide updates as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 956 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Low stratus will hang around KDRO, KASE and KHDN overnight with
potential for fog at KDRO so kept low CIGS through 18Z.
Conditions will be MVFR at times due to low CIGS and potentially
IFR where fog occurs. Otherwise, VFR should prevail outside of
low stratus areas with improving conditions by Tuesday
afternoon. Winds remain light and terrain driven.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT