418
FXUS65 KGJT 180143
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
743 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated light snow can be expected for the northern mountains
  Saturday morning, mostly above treeline.

- Dry and tranquil conditions persist through the remainder of
  the weekend.

- A weak clipper disturbance brings some non zero precipitation
  chances for the northern mountains Monday.

- A more substantial system is coming into the picture for next
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Temperatures across northwest Colorado and southwest Colorado
are expected to drop below 32F for several hours tonight, thanks
to clear skies and dry air. As such, a Freeze Warning has been
issued from midnight tonight through 9 AM MDT tomorrow morning,
for these regions. Take precautions to protect tender plants and
outdoor pipes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

The trailing edge of the upper level trough continues to drag
through northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon. Some
moisture spilling over the ridge along with difluent flow aloft is
helping with scattered cloud cover sprouting on area terrain
features(primarily north of the Colorado River). This feature hangs
on into Saturday morning, with some isolated snow potential for the
northern mountains along the Wyoming border. Trace to light snow
above treeline is about all we can expect. Snow levels hover around
7500 feet Saturday morning, but dry lower layers of the atmosphere
are going to soak up most of any moisture that falls. Overnight lows
will hover around near normal across the region. Some cloud cover up
north could keep temperatures a bit warmer overnight tonight for the
Upper Yampa Basin.

Northwesterly flow continues to spill over the ridge Saturday,
keeping things pretty dry and temperatures on the cooler side of
climatology by nearly 5 degrees. Clear skies will offer up plenty of
sunshine for outdoor recreation Saturday. Temperatures cool to near
normal Sunday morning, as neutral temperature advection takes over
in the more westerly regime developing south of the retreating polar
jet.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

The long term period begins quiet while dry air remains in place.
However, a trough that is expected to propagate across the Rocky
Mountains overnight Sunday into Monday may bring impacts to the
northern Colorado terrain. The trough will carry a weak push of
moisture, which will briefly elevate PWATs to 125-150% of normal in
our CWA during the trough passage. Pretty much all of the upper
level support associated with this system will remain to our north,
so it seems the small amount of precipitation we get will be a
product of favorable orographics in northwesterly flow.

Drier air returns during the day Monday, and will remain in place
until midweek when Pacific moisture advects into our region from
flow around a low pressure system. As the low pressure system
approaches our region, there is potential for it to bring somewhat
widespread precipitation to the CWA. Model disagreement keeps
confidence low regarding the details, so we will have to see how the
forecast for this system evolves as the models begin to find
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Aside from some passing high clouds, skies remain mostly clear.
A few locations north of I-70 are seeing gusts up to 20 knots
this afternoon, but these will diminish after sunset. Skies
remain clear, and winds will follow typical terrain driven
patterns. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds are expected
tomorrow afternoon, with gusts to 25 knots possible at most
terminals. Clouds will increase for areas close to the border
with Wyoming, mainly affecting KHDN and KVEL, but they should
remain well above any breakpoints. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for
     COZ002-005-022.
UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BGB
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT