188
FXUS65 KGJT 271018
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
318 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures highlight the Thanksgiving Day
  forecast, with warmth continuing into tomorrow. Cooler weather
  returns Saturday onward.

- Other than periodic light snow showers in the northern
  mountains, conditions remain dry through tomorrow afternoon.

- A quick moving system will bring mountain snow Friday night
  into Saturday, with another system impacting the region Sunday
  and Monday bringing wintry conditions and potentially
  impacting post-holiday travel through the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

High pressure crests over the region today, with flow aloft shifting
from northwesterly to westerly through the day. This will keep
conditions dry and promote clearing skies and warming temperatures.
Highs will run a few degrees warmer than yesterday, though still 5-
10 degrees above normal. The only place where clouds will linger is
across the Northern Divide mountains, where a few light rain or snow
showers will also be possible. Clouds will return tonight into
tomorrow as high level moisture streams into the region. Otherwise,
tomorrow will see similarly quiet and mild conditions to today.
Breezier winds will be possible for northeast Utah and northwest
Colorado tomorrow afternoon, as the pressure gradient tightens up a
bit ahead of the next system. As this next wave approaches eastern
Utah and western Colorado from the northwest, clouds will thicken
and increase, with a few light rain or snow showers returning to the
Northern Divide mountains tomorrow afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

An active, cooler pattern of weather still looks like an
inevitability this weekend. As we`ve witnessed thus far this fall,
deep cold air and moisture have been in short supply. Without making
any outlandish promises, it does look like we get a little bit of
both in the coming days. Unfortunately, the northerly origins of
these upcoming systems limits moisture transport for us here on the
West Slope. A weak clipper wave drops into northwest Colorado and
northeast Utah Friday evening. This will allow the first shot of
cold air for the extended period to chip into the warmer resident
air mass responsible for the mild conditions this week. This system
will also produce a quick couple inches of snowfall as far south as
the Central Mountains. The Park and Gore Ranges could fair a little
better in this trajectory, with some alpine locales creeping into
the 6 inch range. Afternoon highs will take a hit Saturday too, as
areas north of I-70 see temperatures dip by 10-15 degrees. Cold air
washes out pretty quickly south of the interstate. Hang on though,
additional cold air is on deck.

Deep cold air and cyclonic flow over the northern Plains and Great
Lakes look to keep the northwesterly wave train dropping systems
into the Rockies Sunday and beyond. A heavily tilted trough digs
into the Four Corners Sunday and brings another round of mountain
snow to close out the holiday weekend. Models appear to be tapping
into Pacific moisture with this feature, as the snow totals on the
San Juans get a boost. As echoed here already, confidence on
available moisture is spotty. Regardless, holiday travelers moving
across mountain passes on Sunday should take note of local
forecasts, as measurable snow for all of our major passes is
forecasted. Snow will start on our northern mountains Sunday morning
and work south by Sunday afternoon, continuing into daybreak Monday.
This wave will adjust regional temperatures down again Monday and
beyond. Given the calendar says December, I`d say colder makes
sense. The troughy, northwesterly flow continues into the new work
week. This will keep cooler conditions in place. Models are already
trying to introduce another wave Wednesday that digs back into the
Four Corners. This feature could produce another round of mountain
snow, but I`d like to get a couple more model runs to clean up the
evolution of the systems discussed above before getting overly
confident.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Few to scattered high clouds continue to stream across the area
this evening with some midlevel ceilings being reported at KEGE
and KHDN. Ceilings at KEGE should lift in the next few hours
though KHDN may keep the clouds through the overnight hours into
tomorrow. Some clearing will occur early Thursday until another
round of high clouds moves in during the late morning hours
into the afternoon and beyond. Winds will generally be light
through period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...LTB
AVIATION...TGJT