813
FXUS65 KGJT 040450
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
950 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional snow accumulations are expected in the mountains
  through tonight, with the greatest accumulations expected in
  the San Juans.

- Brief ridging builds in Thursday bringing pleasant weather
  with below normal highs.

- Unsettled weather remains in the forecast Friday and into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 231 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

A thick layer of cloud cover across the CWA can be seen on
satellite imagery. This cloud cover, and the ongoing snowfall,
is a product of a trough that is propagating through the Four
Corners region. Lift from synoptic forcing that is associated
with the trough, in combination with lingering atmospheric
moisture, will support snowfall through tonight. Most of the
additional snow accumulations is expected to occur in the San
Juans, but some accumulating snow may still occur in the central
and northern mountains of Colorado. An additional 4 to 8 inches
is expected in the San Juan Mountains, with locally higher
amounts possible.

Tomorrow morning the trough axis will be to our southeast, and
anomalously dry air will move into the area. Thus, snowfall
from this system will end in the early morning hours due to the
loss of forcing and moisture. With dry air in place, quiet
weather is expected through the day Tuesday. High temperatures
will remain below normal through the short term. Unsettled
winter weather looks to return in the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Models remain in fairly good agreement for a longer period of
unsettled weather, especially for the northern mountains
starting Friday and persisting through the weekend. An area of
high pressure is expected to setup off the West Coast and as
this occurs, the jet stream will ride up and over said ridge.
The jet will have a northwest to southwest orientation, taking
aim at the northern mountains. As impulses of energy move
through the mean flow, accumulating snow will begin over the
northern mountains, Flat Tops, and also the central mountains.
Favorable northwest, orographic flow will keep snow going for
the northern mountains as these impulses move off. Ensembles and
deterministic models are showing the same solutions so
confidence is increasing that the first `big` snow for the
northern mountains is on its way. Monday and Tuesday, the high
out west shifts a little east, just enough to cause wind flow to
become more westerly, shutting off the orographic lift, leaving
a few showers to contend with but little else. Temperatures
will run right around normal, if not a little above Saturday
onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 941 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Snow will continue to dissipate from north to south along the
Divide mountains overnight leaving behind lower ceilings and the
potential for fog at terminals that see clearing skies.
Confidence for when and where this fog will form is very low,
but included the mention of BCFG where fog is historically
favored. VFR conditions become widespread after sunrise on
Thursday with light winds and mostly clear skies before the next
weather system begins to move in north of I-70 late in the TAF
period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ009-012-
     017>019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ023.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT