975
FXUS65 KGJT 141136
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
436 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry and warm conditions persist through the
  beginning of the weekend.

- Accumulating snow is expected Sunday afternoon through noon
  Monday with amounts ranging from 3 to 8 inches with locally
  higher amounts possible.

- The pattern remains active next week so there will be
  additional chances for precipitation as temperatures drop more
  seasonal values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 236 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Presently, skies are clear but to our west a plume of moisture
and associated cloud cover is moving across southern California
up into Nevada and far northwest Utah. As the next system to
affect our area continues to drift eastward, so too will this
moisture and cloud cover. The last several model runs have shown
increasing PWATs and the latest run is no different. PWATs start
to increase starting this morning reaching nearly 200% of normal
by this evening. Despite this increase, no precip is expected
though mid to high level clouds will be on the increase.

By Saturday, the low pressure will have setup just off the
southern California coast inducing a slanted ridge axis over the
CWA. Mostly cloudy skies are expected thanks to high clouds
moving over the area. Highs will remain well above normal
through the period. Big changes are coming Sunday onwards as
described below.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 236 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

On Saturday night a low pressure system off the coast of California
will move into the Intermountain West. As it does so, abundant
atmospheric moisture (PWATs 225-250% of normal) will continue
advecting into our region in southwesterly flow around the
system. Early Sunday morning is when forcing from this low looks
to reach our CWA, and thus this is currently the expected onset
of precipitation. The current forecast has rain and snow rates
peaking Sunday during the afternoon and evening. Given that peak
rates are expected around the warmest time of the day, and
southwesterly flow has allowed for a period of anomalous warmth
leading up to this event, there is uncertainty regarding where
snow levels will fall and how much snow will be able to
accumulate. Snow levels may not drop below 10000 ft in much of
our higher terrain until Sunday evening. Additionally, snow
amounts with this system have been trending downwards.

The impacts from this system look to end late Monday morning as the
remnants of it move east of the Rockies, and transitory ridging
builds over our area. Daytime high temperatures will go from 10 to
15 degrees above normal on Saturday, to seasonable on Monday with
the pattern change. A second low pressure system is expected to move
in sometime next week, potentially bringing more snowfall than our
first event, given that temperatures are expected remain near or
below normal. However, unsurprisingly, confidence is pretty low
regarding the details of this event at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 435 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Some mid to high level clouds will move through today but flight
conditions will remain VFR. Generally light winds are also
expected.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT