838
FXUS65 KGJT 021113
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
513 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy southwesterly winds and temperatures around 10 degrees
  above normal settle in today and tomorrow.

- A low pressure system moves through Friday night into
  Saturday, bringing cooler and wetter conditions with more
  widespread wetting rain with some light mountain snow.

- Drier and more seasonable conditions return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

High pressure will be in control today and tomorrow, promoting warm
temperatures and clear skies. Indeed, satellite imagery this early
morning shows nary a cloud in sight across all of eastern Utah and
western Colorado. While we remain under clear skies, clouds
associated with the next system are evident along the West Coast. As
this system starts to move inland today, the pressure gradient
between it and the ridge building into the center of the country
will begin to tighten up. This will help to pump much warmer air
into the Four Corners region, with highs expected to run around 10
degrees above normal today and tomorrow. This strengthening
southwesterly flow aloft will also translate to breezy southwesterly
winds at the surface starting this afternoon, with gusts of 25-35
knots expected. A 65-75 knot jet streak moves in this evening,
keeping winds elevated tonight into tomorrow. Winds will peak
tomorrow afternoon, just ahead of the approaching cold front, with
southwesterly wind gusts up to 45 mph possible. Moisture will also
be on the increase tomorrow afternoon, bringing increasing cloud
cover. So enjoy the abundant sunshine while you can, a shift to
cooler and wetter conditions begins Friday evening, as discussed
below in the long term section.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

With the increasing moisture ahead of the approaching system,
terrain based showers and storms will develop Friday evening.
Precipitation chances and shower/storm coverage increases Friday
night into Saturday as this trough lifts across the north.
Temperatures are expected to drop by about 15 degrees on Saturday
compared to Friday, with daytime highs on Saturday averaging out to
around 5 degrees below normal. Snow levels will lower to around
10kft on Saturday and drop to near 9kft by Sunday morning as this
trough lifts across. While we are not anticipating significant snow
accumulation for the mountains, a couple inches is not out of the
question in some areas above pass level. Conditions will still be
rather wet and cold in the high country so stay up to date with the
latest forecast and be aware of changing conditions if traveling or
out in the backcountry leaf peeping.

The low pressure trough will lift out into the northern High Plains
by Sunday morning with drier southwest flow returning by Sunday
afternoon as another low pressure drops into the Great Basin by
early next week. Sunday`s temperatures will remain around 5 degrees
below normal with temperatures warming to near to 5 degrees above
normal early next week. Conditions look dry on Sunday and Monday.
Unsettled conditions return through mid week a troughing continues
to dominate over the Western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will dominate the next 24
hours. A few light afternoon cumulus may develop over the higher
terrain. Winds will be light and terrain driven through roughly
18z, then will become southwesterly and capable of gusting
20-25 knots. Winds will remain elevated after 00z, but will
switch to typical terrain driven patterns.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BGB
LONG TERM...MDA/TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT