664
FXUS65 KGJT 091045
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
345 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers are possible today and Wednesday in the northern
  Colorado mountains. The probability of 6+ inches of snow is
  around 60 percent across the high peaks of the Park Range with
  this system.


- A general warming trend is expected, but the snow covered
  mountains valleys will see cold inversions set up overnight
  lasting through the days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 338 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Satellite imagery shows the atmospheric river (AR) impacting the
Pacific Northwest extending west across the North Pacific to Midway
Atoll driven by the ridging over the Eastern Pacific well off the
California-Baja Coast and a low pressure system south of the
Aleutian Islands. The extent of this AR concurs with the forecast
that it will continue through the coming weekend. Models have
generally been in good agreement with the Eastern Pacific High
building east enough to push the AR remnants north out of the
eastern Utah-Western Colorado region shutting down the snow showers
across the north late Wednesday onward, but, with the latest model
runs, they are suggesting the shortwave trough descending through
the Pacific Northwest will brush the northern Colorado mountains
late this afternoon into early tomorrow morning pulling the AR
moisture far enough south to impact the higher elevations of the
Park mountains. The nose of a jetstreak is supporting the shortwave
with upper-level dynamics lending more credence to the forecast, but
the stronger dynamics stay more to the north and east. The airmass
also remains a very temperate with snow levels 7500ft to 8500ft.
Look for the snow to fall between about noon today and noon tomorrow
with the heaviest snow in the overnight hours. Considered an
advisory for Zone 4, but held off since it`s only limited to the
higher Park Mountains, and areas of travel like Rabbit Ears Pass,
the Elkhead and Gore Mountains, will see minimal if any impacts.
Temperatures today will run 8-12 degrees above normal, and will warm
yet a few degrees tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

Upper level ridging drives the extended forecast. Late in the week
high pressure will build over the Intermountain West leading to
warming temperatures and little, if any, chance for precipitation
Thursday through Sunday. If the forecast holds as is, much of the
area will see multiple days of high temperatures 15-20 degrees above
normal for mid-December.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 914 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

High clouds continue to filter over the area, but will remain
above any breakpoints. VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours for all terminals, expect KHDN. At KHDN, VFR
conditions will prevail through 18z tomorrow, then will see
periods of MVFR to IFR develop as rain and snow showers fill in.
Ceilings will approach breakpoints at times. For remaining
terminals, ceilings will lower and become broken to overcast by
00z tomorrow evening, but will remain above any breakpoints.
Winds will be light and terrain driven.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...TGJT