327
FXUS65 KGJT 032010
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
110 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts are expected over
  portions of the Colorado mountains through Thursday morning.
  Winter Weather Advisories are in place.

- Brief ridging builds in Thursday bringing pleasant weather
  with below normal highs.

- Persistent snowfall is looking more likely Friday and into the
  weekend for our northern mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

As seen on yesterday`s Grand Junction sounding evolution, a nose of
warmer, moister air slid in atop a cold pool. This feature and
persistent westerly upglide has produced light orographic snow
through the overnight hours around the region. The snow board here
at the station saw 20:1 snow ratios at one point. With this cold,
stratiform air mass and a meager moisture pool, rates of
accumulation have been pretty stagnant. This should change after
daybreak when we can hopefully stir things up. Snowfall picks up
across our Central Mountains and southward this morning with a
series of vort lobes pivoting through the upper trough. There were
some initial concerns with this storm as to whether it could dig far
enough south to tap a favorable plume of moisture that could reach
into the Four Corners. That seems to be coming to fruition as we`ve
seen QPF ratchet up for the San Juans and their southerly aspects.
Good upslope flow nosing into the San Juan Basin around Pagosa
Springs today lead me to add an additional Winter Weather Advisory
there, where it looks like a solid 5 inches of new snow could fall
through Thursday morning.

While snow will taper rapidly this evening for our Central Mountains
and the north side of the San Juans, another healthy round of snow
is expected into the overnight hours across the southern San
Juans. This should be the last gasps of the upper trough exiting
the region. Snow should be mostly wrapped up by daybreak
Thursday, with scattered flurries lingering into the afternoon.
The clearing line of cloud cover reaches the Colorado River
corridor this evening and will work south during the overnight
hours. Overnight lows behind the clearing skies will dip 5
degrees below climatology and likely cooler in the elevated
basins near new snowpack. Mostly sunny skies and cool
temperatures will return Thursday. Some afternoon cloud cover
will begin to invade northwest Colorado and northeast Utah
though, ahead of another push of active weather. Remnant
moisture on the San Juans will likely keep some gray skies and
isolated flurries down there Thursday, with maybe a stray inch
of new accumulation expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Beginning Friday, continuous high elevation snow looks possible
through the weekend, especially for the northern and central
mountains. Atmospheric moisture looks to become slightly
elevated on Friday from a weak push of moisture, and then even
more elevated on Saturday as a stronger moisture push occurs.
The increased moisture, orographic lift from northwesterly flow,
and a few weak waves of energy may allow for 4 to 8 inches of
snow in the northern and central mountains, and possibly higher
amounts in the Park Range by the end of the weekend. There seems
to be ok agreement on timing of snowfall, including between
ensembles, from run to run, and between ensemble members.
However, there are still pretty significant differences
regarding snow amounts. So, there is definitely still
uncertainty with how much snow will accumulate. High
temperatures look to warm through the long term, beginning well
below normal on Thursday, and becoming near or above normal by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1053 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Ceilings and visibilities will be varying through the day as our
current system continues to move across the area. Widespread
MVFR/IFR conditions will be likley for TAF sites except KVEL and
KCNY though some brief MVFR can`t be ruled out there either.
ILS breakpoints will also be reached for most TAF sites thanks
to those lower ceilings. Conditions will slowly improve from
northwest to southeast after 00Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
     COZ004-010.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ009-012-
     017>019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ023.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT