604
FXUS63 KGLD 021000
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
300 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is forecast to develop over portions of the area
  overnight tonight, lasting into Wednesday afternoon. Most of
  the area will not even see an inch of snow from this system.

- Patchy blowing snow midday Wednesday in eastern Colorado may
  lead to minor travel impacts.

- Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 113 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Over the past few hours, temperatures dropped into the teens
before a low-level ridge moved across the area. This has lead to
west-southwesterly winds gradually warming the CWA up a few
degrees from downsloping flow and weak WAA.

The WAA is expected to continue into the day. Combined with some
more sun shining through, temperatures are forecast to warm into the
mid to upper 40s across the area. There is some wiggle room for the
highs depending on clouds. More sky coverage and some places will
not climb out of the low 40s, but if more sun shines through, 50s
will be seen across parts of the area. Winds will become light and
variable in the afternoon as a very weak trough moves over the area.

Overnight tonight gets a bit more interesting. The aforementioned
trough will allow an 850 mb low to form early in the night,
southwest of the area. This will pull in cooler, saturated air from
the north. There still looks to be a dry layer around 50-100 mb
thick at the surface. A heavy cloud deck will move in overnight, and
starting around 0-3Z over the western CWA, 500 mb vorticity
associated with a 250 mb trough axis, will move over the CWA. This
will provide forcing and moisture to lead to some flurries and light
snow. This potential for light precipitation will expand eastward,
covering most of the CWA by 9Z. There is a lot of disagreement from
the models regarding the potential for this precipitation, largely
revolving around if the forcing will occur and if the dry layer will
lead to only virga. Current confidence in light snow leading to
trace to no accumulation before 12Z Wednesday across most of the CWA
is about 30-40%.

By 12-15Z Wednesday morning, model disagreement dissolves over the
western CWA as the main trough starts to sweep through the area.
Snow is expected to continue along and west of KS 27 between 12 and
21Z Wednesday. This main wave of snow will move in from the
northwest and generally progress to the south throughout the day.
Snow may occur farther east until the afternoon. The western halves
of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado have a 50-60% chance
of seeing an inch of snow. There is only a ~40% chance of localized
accumulations of an inch east of the Colorado border, and potential
rapidly declines farther east.

In the midday Wednesday, mainly 15-21Z, winds gusts are forecast to
be in the 20-25 MPH range. This could lead to blowing snow, mainly
in eastern Colorado where winds and snowfall will be strongest.
Current confidence in blowing snow reducing visibility to less than
1 mile is about 20-30%. Nuisance (>5 mile visibility) blowing snow
has a 30-50% chance of occurring in pockets across the CWA as snow
falls.

Temperatures from the NBM show highs warming to just above freezing
for most of the CWA. With ongoing precipitation, dew points expected
to stay below freezing, and mostly cloudy to overcast skies expected
throughout the day, it seems unlikely temperatures will be this
warm. Most likely, temperatures west of about KS 27 will warm to
just below or right at freezing, and locations to the east will see
the above freezing temperatures.

Wednesday night, an 850 mb high pressure system looks to descend
from the Northern Rockies. This will slowly clear the skies over the
CWA and help temperatures cool into the teens by Thursday morning.
The northeastern CWA is expected to clear first and have efficient
CAA from the high`s flow. This is leading to a 50% chance of
temperatures dropping into the single digits along and northeast of
McCook, NE to Hill City, KS. Wind chills Thursday morning look to be
in the single digits down to 0 in the cold, northeastern
portion.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

The central plains will be under northwest flow this period,
downstream from a ridge axis off the western CONUS. Occasional
shortwaves coming over the ridge will bring only slight
precipitation chances, with measurable amounts of rain and/or
snow looking unlikely at this time. None of these systems are
strong enough to warrant any wind concerns and relative humidity
minimums are well above any fire weather concerns. So what
amounts to basically a temperature forecast will start off
around 10 degrees below normal on Thursday, a bit cooler in any
snow covered areas of Colorado, followed by near normal
temperatures on Friday, around 5 degrees above normal on
Saturday, near normal on Sunday behind a weak cold front, and 5
to 10 degrees above normal on Monday. Normal highs are in the
upper 40s and normal lows are around 20.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through majority of the
period for KGLD and KMCK. Late this evening into tonight,
flurries and overcast skies will be moving in from the west.
Regarding the flurries, these could show up at KGLD as early as
4Z. These early flurries will likely be so light that impacts do
not occur until closer to 8Z. At this point for KGLD, the wind
will start picking up as will the snow rates, potentially
leading to some visibility reductions due to blowing snow.
Ceilings will also be lowering during this time, likely hitting
MVFR between 10-12Z.

KMCK will be on the outskirts of the snow/flurry potential, but
could still see some as early as 9Z. Ceilings will be the major
impact to KMCK and will likely be hitting MVFR around 10-12Z as
the snow starts to gradually pick up.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA