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FXUS63 KGLD 302111
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
211 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow will develop over portions of the area late
  this evening and overnight, mainly along and north of I-70.

- Snow will end from west-to-east late Monday morning, between
  sunrise (eastern CO) and noon (Hwy 283/Hill City). Expect
  total snow accumulations generally ranging from a dusting to
  2-3". Locally higher amounts (3-5") are possible within a
  narrow corridor/band of heavier snow that may develop along or
  near I-70 in eastern CO and northwest KS.

- Winds will be from the E to SE at 5-15 mph tonight and Monday
  morning. Blowing and drifting snow are not expected while
  precipitation is falling. Locations with fresh snow cover may
  experience some blowing and drifting snow Monday afternoon
  (after precipitation ends), as winds shift to the northwest
  and increase to 15 to 25 mph.

- Brief Warming/moderating trend on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Overview: An upper level wave over the Intermountain West
(today) will progress ESE-E across the 4-Corners (tonight) and
Southern Plains (Monday). In the lower levels, ~1035 mb Arctic
high pressure over the Dakotas and Central Plains (today) will
shift E across the Central and Northern MS River Valley
(tonight) and Ohio Valley (Monday).

Precipitation/snow will develop over the region tonight,
beginning (in earnest) ~06 UTC in eastern CO, as the
aforementioned upper wave traverses the 4-Corners. Recent runs
of high-res guidance (HRRR, RAP, NAM NEST) suggest that strong
mid-level warm advection in advance of the approaching wave..
and strong cyclonic shear vorticity on the northern fringe of a
~115 knot jet streak (progged to develop over southeast CO and
western KS overnight).. may aid in the development of a narrow
corridor/band of heavier precipitation along and near I-70 in
eastern CO and northwest KS (including Burlington and Goodland)
between midnight and sunrise (06-12 UTC) Monday morning. Given
that the majority of high-res guidance support such a scenario..
storm total snow accumulations have been adjusted accordingly.
In general, expect accumulations ranging from a dusting to 2-3"m
though.. locally higher amounts (3-5") are certainly possible
within any narrow/heavy bands. With light (5-15 mph) E to SE
winds expected late tonight and Monday morning, blowing/drifting
snow is not anticipated while precipitation is occurring.
Precipitation will rapidly end from west-to-east between sunrise
(eastern CO) and noon (Hwy 283/Hill City) as the upper wave
progresses east of the Tri-State area. In areas with fresh snow
cover.. some blowing/drifting snow is possible Monday afternoon
(after precipitation ends) as winds shift to the NW and increase
to ~15-25 mph. Expect highs in the mid 20`s to mid 30`s and
overnight (Tue morning) lows ranging from the single digits to
mid-teens, coldest where snow cover is present.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Long range guidance suggests a predominantly dry pattern
(little potential for precipitation) characterized by a modest
warming trend (Tue) as the Arctic airmass exits the region /
drains downhill to the east and a low-level southerly return
flow pattern ensues.. followed by a cooling trend assoc/w
another cold frontal passage mid-week.. with below average
temperatures persisting into late-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening.
MVFR ceilings and MVFR-IFR visibilities assoc/w light snow are
expected late tonight and Monday morning (~08-15Z Mon). A
clearing trend will follow /VFR conditions will return/ during
the late morning and early afternoon. SSE to SE winds at 10-15
knots may increase to 15-20 knots for a period late this
afternoon. SSE to SE winds will weaken to 7-12 knots late this
evening and remain light overnight (perhaps becoming variable,
at times). Winds will shift to the NW and increase to 10-15
knots during the late morning and further increase to 15-20
knots during the afternoon.. at the very end of the 18Z TAF
period.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening.
MVFR-IFR ceilings and MVFR-IFR visibilities assoc/w light snow
are expected tonight and Monday morning (~06-15Z Mon). A
clearing trend will follow /VFR conditions will return/ during
the late morning and early afternoon. Light/variable winds (this
afternoon) will shift to the ESE-SE at ~7-13 knots (this
evening).. gradually veer to the S (overnight).. then shift to
the SW or WSW late Monday morning, near the end of the 18Z TAF
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent