850
FXUS63 KGLD 250849
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
149 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible today as a cold
  front moves through the area. Most of the area is forecast to
  see wind gusts around 30-50 mph. The strongest winds should be
  during the morning hours.

- Near normal temperatures expected around Thanksgiving.

- An Arctic cold front will bring colder temperatures and the
  potential for snow to the region this weekend and early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1256 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Current observations show a broad area of low pressure over the
Plains with a cold front located roughly in the Nebraska Panhandle.
This front is forecast to steadily make its way southeast and move
through the area during the morning hours. The current forecast has
the front entering near the Tri-State border area around 3am MT
and it pushing all the way through the area by the mid morning
hours. As the front pushes through, winds should shift to be
more from the northwest with speeds increasing to around 20-35
mph. As for wind gusts, tightening height fields as the upper
trough slides through the Plains should increase winds in the
850mb and 700mb layer to around 45-55 kts. Compared to prior
forecasts, the winds are more likely to favor the lower end
around 45-50 kts as guidance suggests the low will elongate a
bit and slide more to the east. The issue remains whether or not
they will mix down. After looking at different scenarios and
guidance, it looks like the mostly likely scenario is that the
inversion holds a bit through the morning with some help from
colder air advection until the winds weaken later in the day. In
this case, wind gusts should generally be in the 35-55 mph
range. The current chance of this occurring is around 65%.
Otherwise, the other 35% scenario is the winds mix out and wind
gusts near 65 mph during the morning hours, while still tapering
off later in the day. With this, I`ve decided to cancel the
High Wind Watch as there wasn`t enough confidence to upgrade to
a warning. Another thing to watch for is slightly higher gusts
around 60 mph as the front passes through this morning.

In regards to sky conditions and temperatures, a cold day with
mostly clear skies is forecast. The air continues to dry out ahead
of the front as the low pushes east. The air behind the front is
also forecast to be drier, leading to clearer skies. With the early
frontal passage, cold air is forecast to push in and limit
temperatures to the 30s and 40s.

Tonight, the inversion setting up should lower the winds, especially
with the front forecast to be well southeast of the area. With drier
air, winds becoming calm, and mostly clear skies, temperatures
should drop quite a bit with lows forecast to be in the teens. We
may be able to see 20s instead if some higher level moisture could
move over the area in the northwest flow and produce some cloud
cover.

For Wednesday, the area is forecast to remain in northwest flow
aloft with high pressure near the surface. The northwest flow is
forecast to bring some more mid/high level moisture over the area
and increase cloud cover through the day. With the cold air mass in
place and increasing clouds, temperatures will likely remain
somewhat cool in the 40s. Locales that see cloud cover into the
early afternoon may be able to see highs near 50. It is worth noting
that some virga and maybe even some sprinkles could form with the
amount of mid-level moisture forecast to move through, especially if
a shortwave can form and provide some weak lift.

Tomorrow night is forecast to see partly cloudy skies as the main
batch of moisture shifts off to the southeast. Winds should be
fairly calm again and allow temperatures to lower to near dewpoints
in the low to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Starting the extended period for Thanksgiving is currently forecast
to be more tranquil with high temperature in the mid 40s in the
low 50s across the area with shifting winds to the southeast.
Some moisture advection may occur as this happens so will need
to keep a close eye on fog or stratus, especially fog for
holiday travel. Some guidance still continues to indicate a
shortwave interacting with a developing surface low on Friday
into Saturday which may yield some light precipitation chances
for the area.

The pattern then does become more active as a cold front, perhaps
strong cold front, remains forecast to move into the area from the
north Saturday bringing some additional precipitation chances
and perhaps some breezy winds with it as well. Confidence is
continuing to grow in precipitation potential for the latter
part of the weekend and into the start of the new work week.
However there is still the potential that the system will dig
to deep and the area gets dry slotted keeping any precipitation
and potential impacts at bay. The timing of the front will be
dependent on if we see rain initially or if the precipitation
will be all snow. Confidence does still remain high There does
still continue to remain a ton of spread on specifics with this
so continue to stay up to date with the latest forecast. At
this time it appears to if any impacts were to occur it would
favor the Sunday through Tuesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1008 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast at both
terminals. However, an upper level trough is pushing through the
Plains along with an associated surface cold front. This should
increase winds around 200-600ft at the start of the period to
around 40-50 kts, creating low level wind shear. The cold front
should fully pass through closer to 09Z, shifting winds to out
of the northwest and increasing speeds to around 15 kts. Between
12-16Z, winds are forecast to increase at the surface with
speeds nearing 30 kts and gusts generally between 35-45 kts.
Gusts to 55kts are possible, especially at KMCK. That being
said, the current chance is around 35%. The wind should remain
strong through most of the day, with maybe a few kts weakening
as we get later into the afternoon. Around 00Z, the next
nocturnal inversion should set up and weaken the surface winds
back to 10 kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KAK