505
FXUS63 KGLD 011017
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
417 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures in the 60s/70s and dry conditions are
  forecast for the end of the weekend and into early next week.

- Near record highs possible on Sunday along with localized
  critical fire weather potential across western portions of the
  area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1241 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Early this morning, as a low pressure system over the northern
midwest exits to the east, a mid-level trough axis will be
sweeping over the area. This could (10-20%) lead to some
isolated flurries, but no accumulation is expected.

Today, we will have high pressure filling in behind the trough
axis, which will lead to mostly clear skies today. Temperatures
are forecast to warm into the 50s today, with the western CWA
being warmer than the eastern. Overnight, a surface trough will
be nearing from the northwest, which will allow for some weak
southerly flow. In the mid and upper-levels, high pressure will
still be filtering in. This will lead to clear skies, allowing
the temperatures to drop to around 30s; warmer than previous
nights, but near saturation for the eastern 3 columns of
counties. With this, there is a 15% chance of patchy freezing
fog Sunday morning. If winds remain southerly at 7+ kts, the
potential for freezing fog will drop to less than 5%.

Sunday, the surface trough is expected to pull in a lot of WAA
from the southwest. This is forecast to drive high temperatures
into the 70s to low 80s. There is a chance high temperature
records will be broken, more information can be found in the
Climate section below. With such warm temperatures, RH values
will drop into the low to mid teens. There will be some fire
weather concern if 20-40 kts winds from 600-700 mb are able to
mix to the surface. If this does happen, it would likely last
less than three hours and remain west of KS Highway 25. Current
confidence for briefly critical fire weather conditions is
around 40-50%, but confidence for Red Flag Conditions to be met
is less than 20%.

Overnight Sunday, temperatures will cool into the 30s as the
500 mb high inches closer to the CWA from the southwest, keeping
the polar jet in the Dakotas and northern Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Mon-Wed: Long range guidance indicates that a progressive (and
largely unidirectional) flow pattern will prevail over the CONUS
early next week.. with the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies
confined to higher latitudes (45-60N). Above average confidence
in dry conditions / no precipitation. Expect day-to-day
fluctuations in temperature (as much as 10-20F) and wind
direction.. cooler Mon, warmer Tue, cooler Wed.. as regular/
periodic upper level waves (and modest accompanying surface
lows) traverse the Northern Plains.

Thu-Sat: Long range guidance indicates a transition to a more
amplified progressive flow pattern over the CONUS late week into
next weekend.. with the mid-latitude westerlies routinely
descending to lower latitudes (35-45N). Expect an increasing
potential for active/unsettled weather.. over the Northern
Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, in particular. Low
confidence in forecast specifics at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 414 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period. A
surface ridge will be moving over the region today, leading to
variable and light winds. Tonight, winds will favor a south-
southwesterly direction. There is a 5-10% chance KMCK could see
patchy freezing fog around sunrise Sunday, but the southwesterly
winds will likely prevent fog formation.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Record high temperatures may be in jeopardy across portions of
the area on Sunday November 2nd. Record highs and current
forecast highs for the date are listed below (in Fahrenheit).

Goodland:   81 in 1931... current forecast 80
Burlington: 81 in 1931... current forecast 79
McCook:     80 in 2022... current forecast 75
Hill City:  83 in 2022... current forecast 73

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...Trigg