655
FXUS63 KGLD 100738
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1238 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Continued dry forecast through the week until next weekend.

-Gradual warming temperature trend through the work week.

-Low relative humidity Tuesday and Friday with breezy winds
 leading to some fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1236 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

A surface high is located across eastern portions of the forecast
area where single digit dew points have filtered in. A combination
of the surface high and low dew points have lead temperatures fall
into the low to mid teens currently with the potential to fall into
the single digits by Monday morning. Further to the west some subtle
troughing is nosing in allowing winds to become more south-
southwesterly which is forecast to keep temperatures from
falling below the upper teens.

Throughout the remainder of the day the trough is forecast to
continue moving through the area leading to breezy sustained winds
around 15 mph. Winds are forecast to remain from the southwest
leading to some downsloping allowing temperatures to warm up,
especially across the west where low to mid 60s are forecast.
The high pressure across the east will be slow to move out as
temperatures may struggle to get out of the 40s.

Monday night and into Tuesday morning, a shortwave is forecast to
move across the area from the Cheyenne ridge. As the shortwave moves
across the area winds are forecast to become breezy from the west-
northwest due to an increasing 850mb jet as a result this is
anticipated to help keep temperatures at or above freezing for
the majority of the forecast area as the lower levels of the
atmosphere remain mixed.

Tuesday, breezy to even gusty conditions will be ongoing as the
nocturnal inversion breaks with sustained winds of 15-25 mph
gusting to 35 mph with the strongest across eastern Colorado.
Some lower dew points in the mid teens to low 20s will remain
across eastern Colorado as well as temperatures rise allowing
humidity values to fall into the mid teens to low 20s resulting
in some elevated to even critical fire weather conditions
across Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties but may even spread into
Wallace and Greeley counties as well. Winds are actually
forecast to decrease starting around 19Z or so as the shortwave
moves out of the area allowing the 850mb jet to weaken. Higher
dew points are also forecast to move in from the north which
this along with the declining wind brings some questions on how
many hours of critical conditions can occur leading to a
confidence of 20-25% for 3 or more hours of critical conditions
(highest for Cheyenne county Colorado) which is to low to
validate a need for a Fire Weather Watch at this time.
Confidence though in 1-2 hours of critical conditions is around
30-40% especially the further west across Cheyenne county
Colorado you go.

Wednesday is forecast to be another warm day as ridging across the
western CONUS returns leading to above normal temperatures in the
70s for most of the area as breezy southwest winds continue. Dew
points are forecast to be higher in wake of the weak moisture
advection from Tuesday afternoon helping to mitigate fire weather
concerns. The southwest winds are forecast to continue through the
night as larger scale troughing across the Pacific ocean begins to
take shape helping temperatures remain above freezing again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1039 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

The upper level ridge will continue to slowly move toward and over
the forecast area during this part of the forecast.  Thursday the
winds look to be similar to Tuesday, breezy but too low for meeting
a fire weather concern.  Friday the winds will stronger as the upper
level trough approaches.  If relative humidity values fall further,
this day will be a concern for fire weather conditions.
Additionally, suspect the forecast winds for the afternoon
should increase in the coming days.

Looking at the weekend, the latest GFS model run is now mirroring
the ECMWF, which has had a closed low moving south of the forecast
area.  The GFS track has the closed low in a favorable position to
bring precipitation to most of the forecast area, while the ECMWF is
slightly further south and about a day slower.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 943 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to continue for this TAF period.
Light winds are forecast to continue through the night before
becoming more south-southwesterly Monday morning; first at GLD
then MCK mid morning. Wind gusts up to 20 knots are forecast
through the day Monday before losing the gust potential as the
nocturnal inversion resets in again Monday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

A period of elevated to critical fire weather remains forecast
from late morning Tuesday through the early afternoon across Kit
Carson county, Cheyenne county Colorado along with western
Wallace and Greeley counties in Kansas. An interesting fire
weather conditions setup is forecast to take shape as a
shortwave moves across the area during the morning hours leading
to the breeziest winds occurring from between 8am-11am MT with
sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts up to 35 mph forecast. A
corridor of lower dew points is also forecast to move through
as well dropping humidity values into the mid teens to low 20s
as early as 10am MT as temperatures rise into mid 60s to low
70s. The tricky part of the forecast is that the winds will
actually decline as the afternoon goes on and humidity increases
leading to a brief window from the late morning into the early
afternoon where critical fire weather conditions may exist. Peak
mixing heights during the afternoon are forecast to be around
5000 feet which is forecast to be nearing a wind field of 20-25
knot winds which leads me to believe that any wind gusts of 25
mph or higher will be spotty and sporadic. Confidence in
achieving an hour or two of critical conditions is around 30-40%
mainly in western Cheyenne county Colorado and 20-25% of 3 or
more hours. In the other counties mentioned 1-2 hours of
critical conditions is around 20-25% and 3+ hours is 10-15%. Am
opting to hold off on any fire weather products at this time
due to the lack of confidence in achieving 3 or more hours of
critical conditions and due to the overall limited spatial
nature of where the critical conditions are forecast.
Nevertheless be extra cautious with any activity that involves
sparks Tuesday morning as GFDI (Grassland Fire Danger Index)
values are forecast to be very high from 45-55 along with drying
10 hour fuels approaching 10% according to the Kansas Mesonet
across most of northwest Kansas.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg