146
FXUS63 KGLD 242311
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
411 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A High Wind Watch has been issued for Dundy, Hitchcock and Red
  Willow counties from 6am-6pm CT Tuesday as wind gusts around
  60 mph are possible. There is the potential winds could be
  stronger. Elsewhere wind gusts of 40-50 mph are forecast in
  wake of a cold front Tuesday morning.

- Near normal temperatures expected around Thanksgiving.

- An Arctic cold front will bring colder temperatures and the
  potential for snow to the region this weekend and early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1218 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Light showers and/or drizzle continue through the day before ending
west to east starting during the mid to late morning hours as small
amount omega remains in the low levels as as a low pressure
system continues to move to the east away from the area. Patches
of fog do continue to remain possible especially closer to the
lingering showers but any dense fog potential has ended. A
gradual clearing trend is forecast to occur from west to east
starting this afternoon and continuing through the evening
hours. There is however some signal in some forcing around
700-500mb along with some increase in moisture in that range
that may form some clouds and perhaps some sprinkles across the
area.

Monday night and into Tuesday a cold front is forecast to move
through the area leading to an increase in winds with sustained
winds of 20-25 mph starting around 2am MT with gusts of 30-35 mph
through the morning until the nocturnal inversion wanes. Tuesday
is forecast to see breezy to strong winds through the day with
around 4- 5 mb pressure rises over 3 hours and continues cold
air advection continuing to mix winds down in the 850-700mb
level. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph are possible starting around 9am
CT and continuing through the mid afternoon. The greatest
concern for wind gusts around 60 mph is across southwest
Nebraska as the 850mb wind field is forecast to increase to
around 50-55 knots. I have opted to issue a High Wind Watch for
Dundy, Hitchcock and Red Willow counties as the GEFS mean spread
does continue to indicate the potential for a even deeper
trough and a few members as deep as into Phillips county in
Colorado and Chase county in Nebraska which would increase the
potential for wind gusts up to 65mph. I initially was not going
to go the watch route but did note a slight southward trend in
the GEFS spaghetti models for the 552 height contours from the
06Z-12Z run; that does raise some suspicion that the deeper
solutions may be correct. The recent 12Z deterministic run of
the GFS does have 50-53 knots in towards the top of the mixing
level in Red Willow county and the placement of the 552 height
in that is very similar to the mean seen in the GEFS. With all
of that said confidence in at least 60 mph wind gusts is around
45-50% at this time with the higher end of the confidence
currently focused across Hitchcock and Red Willow counties.
Elsewhere across the area wind gusts of 40-55 mph are forecast
with the greater potential for 50+ mph gusts closer to the High
Wind Watch area. Plumes of dust may be possible originating
from just north of the CWA where NASASPORT data shows 0-10cm
soil moisture around 15-20%. Mixing heights are forecast to be
around 4500-5000 feet along with 2-2.5km Lapse rates around
5-5.5 C/KM. 0- 2km Lapse rates are forecast to be around 8.5-9.0
C/KM which is a little marginal for dust plumes to form. Will
refrain from introducing dust into the forecast at this time due
to marginal nature of the lapse rates and lower confidence in
if even the stronger winds will form in the first place.

Temperatures are forecast in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the
area which with the wind should result in a chillier day. 850mb
temperatures are forecast to be around -1 to +1 degrees which with
mainly full sun should help temperatures warm into the current
forecasted range. Cold air advection is forecast to continue through
the evening as well along with drier air advecting in resulting in
overnight low temperatures falling into the teens. A gradual
shifting of the winds to the west is anticipated to keep
temperatures from falling further into the upper single digits
to low teens. However if the winds are delayed in turning or go
calm then some localized spots may fall further than
forecasted.

Wednesday, northwest flow is forecast to re-enforece itself across
the area. High temperatures for the day are forecast to be in
the low 40s to upper 40s with the coolest across the east in
response to being in closer proximity to the cold front. Have
been noticing guidance has been picking up on a weak wave
within the flow originating from the Cheyenne Ridge and
increasing 850-700mb moisture. At this time thinking virga is
moist to occur due to drier air at the surface but some rogue
sprinkles or even flurries are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Starting the extended period for Thanksgiving is currently forecast
to be more tranquil with high temperature in the mid 40s in the
low 50s across the area with shifting winds to the southeast.
Some moisture advection may occur as this happens so will need
to keep a close eye on fog or stratus, especially fog for
holiday travel. Some guidance still continues to indicate a
shortwave interacting with a developing surface low on Friday
into Saturday which may yield some light precipitation chances
for the area.

The pattern then does become more active as a cold front, perhaps
strong cold front, remains forecast to move into the area from the
north Saturday bringing some additional precipitation chances
and perhaps some breezy winds with it as well. Confidence is
continuing to grow in precipitation potential for the latter
part of the weekend and into the start of the new work week.
However there is still the potential that the system will dig
to deep and the area gets dry slotted keeping any precipitation
and potential impacts at bay. The timing of the front will be
dependent on if we see rain initially or if the precipitation
will be all snow. Confidence does still remain high There does
still continue to remain a ton of spread on specifics with this
so continue to stay up to date with the latest forecast. At
this time it appears to if any impacts were to occur it would
favor the Sunday through Tuesday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 408 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. A frontal passage will occur at both terminals
overnight, with gusty northwest surface winds through Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024