865
FXUS63 KGLD 270815
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Benign weather and near normal temps around Thanksgiving.

- Strong N winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic cold
  frontal passage Fri night into Sat, strongest (30-40 G 55 mph)
  Sat morning. A few snow showers may accompany the frontal
  passage early Sat morning (prior to sunrise).

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
  on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
  and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
  chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 102 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Thankfully, today is looking to be
fairly mild for late fall with northwest flow aloft and a broad
surface high pressure system across the Plains. This should have the
area see a mix of clouds and sunshine as temperatures warm to around
50. Winds should generally be under 15 mph with the weak pressure
gradient from the the broad high. Similar to yesterday, virga and
some sprinkles and flurries are possible late in the day as mid to
high level moisture moves over the area. Though the area is forecast
to be a bit drier near the surface which should inhibit the
sprinkle/flurry chances.

Friday, the northwest flow aloft is forecast to become more zonal
ahead of an upper trough that is forecast to move over the
Northwestern United States and towards the Plains. As the trough
nears, it is forecast to help develop and deepen a low pressure
system along the Front Range. The low will also begin to shift east
through the day and expand into the area. This is forecast to split
the area into two different sets of conditions. For counties along
the Colorado border, sunshine should be able to peak through late in
the morning and help temperatures warm into the mid to upper 50s.
Winds should generally be below 15 mph. For counties along and east
of a Leoti, KS to Colby, KS to Trenton, NE line, could cover should
be in place most of the day with high temperatures right around 50.
Winds are forecast to be a bit stronger for this area on the leading
edge of the low with speeds a around 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph.

Overnight Friday and into early Saturday, the surface low is
forecast to dive south towards the Panhandles region while slowly
elongating into North Central Kansas. This is due to the upper
trough pushing into the area and expanding a bit. With this, the
area will both be in the wrap around side of the low pressure system
and have a cold front move through with the main wave. This could
have produced a fair amount of precipitation, but most of the area
is forecast to be dry slotted from the advancement of the low during
the day. For locations east of Highway 83 though, there is a concern
for fog and maybe even some freezing fog. This area is forecast to
see the lower levels saturate before the cold front sweeps in. The
chance for freezing fog is fairly low as both dewpoints in the mid
50s and cloud cover providing some insulation overnight should keep
temperatures above freezing initially. For the entire area though,
as the front moves in from the north and then through the area, snow
is possible as the front takes what moisture is available and then
compacts and lifts it. Snow amounts around half an inch to an inch
are possible across the area, with higher amounts possible for the
eastern half of the area depending on how much moisture is
available. Though the fast progression of the front is likely to
inhibit snow amounts across the area. Will need to keep an eye on
some brief snow squall potential as some guidance suggests that
there could be a couple hundred joules of CAPE, allowing for
convective elements and higher snowfall rates.

For Saturday, any lingering precipitation or fog should clear the
area during the morning with the cold front through the area and the
higher pressure and drier air moving in. This does set Saturday up
to be a cold and windy with temperatures in the 20s/30s and winds
around 20-40 mph with gusts to 50-55 mph. Similar to this past
Tuesday, there could be a few sporadic 60 mph wind gusts with around
50 kts winds at 850-700mb. Though the lack of mixing due to the
early front should keep us from reaching our max gust potential.

Saturday night is forecast to be one of the coldest nights of the
season we`ve had so far. With the colder and drier air moving in,
temperatures are forecast to drop to near dewpoint in the single
digits and teens. While winds should be much lighter compared to the
daytime hours as the system moves away from the area, the forecast
still has speeds around 10 mph, allowing for wind chills around zero
and in the negative single digits. Be prepared for a cold night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

Sunday will be cloudy and cold with temperatures remaining in
the 20s. Breezy southeast winds will keep wind chills in the
teens through the day. Next system comes through Sunday night
and Monday as a progressive open wave. Snow chances begin Sunday
evening, with best chances after midnight through Monday
morning, then ending west to east Monday afternoon. GFS ensemble
average shows 1-3" while both the ECMWF ensemble average and
Canadian ensemble average show less than 1". Wind will not be a
problem with generally light south winds at less than 10 mph.
Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the teens and highs on
Monday in the low to mid 30s. Temperatures could be somewhat
colder Monday night than shown by the NBM due to fresh snow,
clearing skies and light winds. NBM has mid teens while colder
models showing single digits possible.

Broad northwest flow on Tuesday will transition to a zonal flow
on Wednesday. Models show light snow/flurries Wednesday night
with a very weak embedded wave, but somewhat skeptical at this
time range of anything impactful. Temperatures will be slightly
below normal with highs in the lower 40s both days and lows in
the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 951 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both terminals
through the period. Winds are forecast to be somewhat light and
variable through the remainder of the night. Closer to sunrise,
winds should begin to become more northwesterly before switching
to be more from the southeast after the noon hour. Speeds should
still remain below 10 kts with the high pressure over much of
the Plains. This evening may bring some more sprinkles and virga
to the area after 00Z. Will also need to keep an eye out for low
level wind shear to develop near the end of the period as
guidance suggests winds around 200-500ft could increase to
around 35 kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK