646
FXUS63 KGLD 190815
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issue this morning. Patchy fog
  may impact most of the Tri-State area this morning, making
  travel more hazardous. Thursday morning will see fog return to
  the area. Patches of freezing fog may lead to slick elevated
  surfaces.

- Widespread rainfall expected with upcoming storm system on
  Thursday and Friday. Western portions of the area may have a
  rain/snow mix.

- Another storm system moving onto the Plains early next week.

- Colder pattern expected around Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

This morning, as a mid-level ridge is moving over the region, fog
and stratus have formed across the eastern CWA. The eastern CWA will
be the most heavily impacted by this around sunrise. A Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued for the eastern portions of the CWA until
16Z. KHLC has reported dense freezing fog, but is the only site in
the CWA that is below freezing. With that in mind, freezing fog
could lead to slick elevated surface, but icing on roads is not
expected. There is a 50% chance the Advisory will need to be
expanded to the west, but mid-level clouds and southerly winds
should hold the fog to the advised area. After sunrise, south-
southwesterly winds will pick up for a couple of hours and clear out
any remaining fog and work to lift the stratus.

A low-level low coming off the Southern Rockies will push a weak
cold front through the CWA today. This will lead to light and
variable winds moving in around 15-18Z and remaining for the rest of
the day. Mid and upper-level clouds will also remain for most of the
day, especially in the eastern CWA, but should break over eastern
Colorado in the midday. Depending on when the western CWA clears,
temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s. Over the eastern
CWA, where clouds will likely linger all day, temperatures will warm
into the mid to upper 50s. However, there is a 30% chance highs will
top out in the upper 40s for Red Willow and Norton counties.

Tonight, a shortwave ridge moves over the region as winds become
northeasterly and RH values climb to near 100%. This will lead to
more fog. Confidence for widespread dense fog Thursday morning is
sitting around 35-45%. Temperatures across the CWA looks to cool
into the low to mid 30s. This is leading to a 10-20% chance of
patchy freezing fog for locations generally along and north of a
line from Norton, KS to Goodland, KS, to Flagler, CO. Road surface
temperatures are still warm enough that widespread black ice would
not form even if freezing fog occurs. However, elevated surfaces,
such as bridges and raised ramps, could see light ice accumulation
if the freezing fog occurs.

Thursday, will remain mostly cloudy ahead of the incoming low. This
low, which is currently near Baja California, will be coming over
the Southern Rockies Thursday. We expect precipitation to begin after
18Z, starting in the southeastern CWA, and lasting until Friday
afternoon/evening, exiting to the northeast. The dominant
precipitation type is forecast to remain rain, some snow is forecast
to mix in over eastern Colorado. Over the past 12 hours, the LREF
and GEFS have moderately backed off on the likelihood of snow mixing
in. Current expectation is early Friday morning, between 9-15Z,
eastern Colorado will see a rain/snow mix. There is a 30-40% chance
of a rain/snow mix west of a line from Kit Carson, CO to Haigler, NE
and a 15% chance of accumulating snow near Flagler, CO. Accumulating
snow will be made difficult from the warm ground temperatures and
rain melting the snow as it falls.

As far as a contingency, there is ~2% chance that the CAA is
stronger than guidance is showing or a snowband sets up over eastern
Colorado. This would lead to snow for a few hours instead of just a
rain/snow mix. In this scenario, 2-4 inches of snow could
accumulate, impacting I-70 west of Burlington, CO. Additionally, if
this does play out, winds from the east may gust around 20-25 kts,
leading to blowing snow impacting visibility and wet, heavy snow
sticking to east facing objects.

Overnight lows Thursday are forecast to cool into the low 30s to low
40s with the potential for temperatures below freezing mainly
staying in eastern Colorado. Highs Friday will be limited by the
precipitation, likely remaining in the 40s. The NBM is likely too
warm by 5-10 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

In several ways the weather pattern "resets" itself with
shortwave ridging building over the Central High Plains and
strong closed low system in Southern California and Southern
Arizona. Main concern for the start of Thanksgiving week will be
how this system in the southwest evolves, as models have shown
a high degree of variability with respect to its development
over the past few days although latest data has trended towards
a similar solution. Aforementioned low will lift into the
plains in the Monday to Tuesday time period bringing another
round of precipitation to the plains. Current data takes most
likely path to the south of the area, only grazing south-
southeastern most counties. While there is potential for a more
favorable track, that appears not to be the most likely
scenario. Cold air will be hard to come by for this system as
well and would expect rain to be primary precipitation type.

While the Thanksgiving holiday is outside the general forecast
timeframe for current forecast, it is worth mentioning potential for
a pattern shift in that timeframe. Looks like a push of much colder
air into the region around Thanksgiving, with 30-40% chance of highs
not getting above freezing. Some light snow also not out of the
question in that time window.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1006 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

For KGLD, VFR conditions will dominate the period, but MVFR
ceilings and visibilities are expected nearby to the east of
the airport, and very easily could impact the airport itself
between 13 and 16Z this morning. KMCK is forecast to see IFR
conditions with LIFR/VLIFR nearby to the south of the airport.
Similar to KGLD, KMCK could see the worse conditions move over
the airport between 13 and 16Z.

Around 16Z, south-southwesterly winds will pick up and clear
out the inclement conditions over the course of an couple hours.
Winds will be light and variable for the remainder of the
period. More fog and stratus is expected tomorrow morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...CA