896
FXUS63 KGLD 251846
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1146 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible for the rest of the
  afternoon mainly along and north of Highway 34. Elsewhere
  Gusts of 40-50 mph are most likely.

- Near normal temperatures expected around Thanksgiving.

- First round of snow is expected Friday night into Saturday
  morning. Light snowfall is forecast, but impacts to visibility
  are possible.

- Second round of snow and the cold temperatures are expected to
  arrive Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1145 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Gusty to strong winds are ongoing in wake of cold front in response
to a strong low pressure system across the northern Plains. A few
sporadic wind gusts of 55-60 mph has been observed as the system has
remained a bit more broad as what was anticipated. Tonight, winds
will rapidly decline as the nocturnal inversion sets up
remaining around 10-15 mph sustained. A surface high is
forecast to move into the area bringing chilly temperatures in
the teens as dew points are forecast to fall into the low to mid
teens and continued weakening of the winds. I trended
temperatures a few degrees lower than the previously forecast
but due to winds slowly becoming more westerly which typically
promotes temperatures from fully plummeting did not fully drop
temperatures down to the current forecasted dew points.

Wednesday, northwest flow is forecast to re-enforece itself across
the area. High temperatures for the day are forecast to be in
the low 40s to upper 40s with the coolest across the east in
response to being in closer proximity to the cold front. Have
actually increased temperatures a little bit due to
southwesterly winds ongoing for the majority of the day. Have
been noticing guidance has been picking up on a weak wave
within the flow originating from the Cheyenne Ridge and
increasing 850-700mb moisture and omega with the 15Z RAP13 run
showing around 6-8 microbars in the 700-600mb level. Have
introduced sprinkles into the forecast for northern portions of
the area due to dry air remaining near the surface with perhaps
some flurries mixing in after sunset as temperatures cool into
the low to mid 30s but not anticipating any impacts with this
activity.

Thanksgiving Day continues to look tranquil as the northwest flow
broadens out a bit through the day with near normal
temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s forecast. Cloud cover is
forecast to increase as the day goes as moisture advection
occurs from the south. Still may need to keep an eye on some fog
or stratus development Thursday evening and overnight into
Friday morning as surface winds become more south-southeasterly
with the moisture advection. But at this time the threat for
any hazards is less than 5% chance of occurring.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Starting the extended period Friday and through the weekend as the
pattern then does become more active as a cold front remains
forecast to move into the area. Not much has changed from the
overnight shift`s discussion as all of that continues to remain on
track. Confidence does continue to increase in snowfall starting
Friday night and into Saturday morning as the cold front interacts
with the moisture advection from the south along with a developing
surface low across southwest Kansas. There does continue to be some
concern for a band or bands of snow along the front and any other
mesoscale FGEN bands behind the front resulting in some blowing snow
potential as the pressure gradient tightens. Current soil
temperatures at the Goodland office is in the upper 40s but with
some colder nights leading up to this the soil temperature may
fall into the upper 30s/low 40s which may lead to some flash
freeze potential on roadways or at least on elevated surfaces.
Do continue to see the pockets of instability that the previous
shift was discussing which does bring about some snow squall
potential with this front. Still though even with the ground
temperatures more than likely remaining above freezing most of
the snowfall should melt on contact severely limiting
accumulation potential. Light snowfall potential continues
through the remainder of the weekend before coming to an end to
start the new work week. With the consistent easterly upslope
flow especially on Friday night and Saturday night freezing
drizzle and freezing fog is also a possibility as well which may
be even more impactful than just a light snow.

As for temperatures, confidence is high in much colder air filtering
into the region starting Saturday morning. High temperatures for the
weekend are currently forecast to not get much if at all above
freezing. I still think that the NBM is to warm on temperatures
especially with the consistent CAA, cloud cover and the fact
that arctic air masses are so shallow that guidance struggles to
pick up on the true cold nature of them. With that being said
confidence is around 50-60% that highs Saturday and Sunday will
struggle to get out of the 20s. Same thing goes for low
temperatures confidence is high that overnight temperatures
will fall into the single digits and even in the realm of
possibility of some below zero temperatures for the same
reasoning as above. For the start of the week, confidence is
low in the current temperatures in the forecast. I feel the NBM
is loading in to much of the drier solutions and due to the
chaotic synoptic pattern I would not be surprised if
temperatures are 5-10 degrees cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 947 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Windy conditions are forecast across the area for the remainder
of the afternoon. Wind gusts of 45-55 mph are already occurring
but there is a window where some gusts of 60-65 mph occur in the
MCK terminal or vicinity. Winds are then forecast to gradual
declining during the late afternoon before completely waning as
the nocturnal inversion sets in. VFR conditions remain forecast
for this TAF period although there is a less than 5% chance of
a plume of dust developing and impacting the MCK terminal due to
the wind. Mid to upper level clouds are then forecast to
develop towards the latter part of this TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg