834
FXUS63 KGLD 032322
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
422 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries are forecast to continue over mainly western portions
  of the area through sunset. Most of the snow accumulation is
  expected over Eastern Colorado.

- Fog may form in East Central CO tonight.

- Wind chills Thursday morning are forecast to be in the single
  digits to low teens.

- Very low chances for snow Saturday in Yuma County, but
  otherwise dry through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Well the low end snow forecast scenario seems to be the one that
panned out for this system, with majority of the system staying
west. As the system continues east, we could see the occasional
flurries through sunset, but for the most part the area will likely
remain snow free this afternoon. A surface high over Eastern
Colorado will push south this evening and into the overnight hours,
helping to gradually clear skies Thursday morning. The low level
moisture will stick around through mid-day Thursday as the upper
level trough axis swings across the Central Plains. With the
lingering moisture and light winds out of the south, freezing fog
may be possible tonight. It`s also possible that temperatures are
too cold with overnight lows in the teens across the Tri-State area.
Wind chills will fall after midnight to shortly after sunrise into
the low teens and single digits.

As the upper trough continues to swing across the Central Plains
Thursday, dry conditions are expected with clear to mostly clear
skies starting after midday. Temperatures should be a bit warmer as
well with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Overnight lows tomorrow
night will be in the teens to low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Northwest upper level flow will dominate the weather pattern for
this portion of the forecast.  Models agree rather well with the
weather pattern through Wednesday.  Temperatures will be near to
almost ten degrees above normal.

Models have an upper level short wave trough moving through the High
Plains Saturday.  There may be some low chances for snow in Yuma
County that day.  However, despite the minor upper level short wave
trough moving through, am doubtful this will become reality due to
the majority of the snow chances being well north of the forecast
area.  In addition soundings show a rather large dew point
depression below the cloud base of roughly 15k ft AGL.

Aside from this short wave trough passage, there will be frequent
minor upper level trough passages through the northwest flow over
the Plains; the more notable ones will be on Monday and Wednesday.
Soundings show rather large dew point depressions present on these
days when the short wave troughs move through. Unless this changes,
do not expect there to be much more than clouds accompanying the
troughs through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 416 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Latest radar
reflectivity shows the snow ending from north to south over the
western part of the forecast area. Models do not have a good
handle on the current ceilings, which greatly lowers confidence
in how they will handle the ceilings for the next few hours.
After roughly 3z models agree well with each other regarding the
ceilings. Overall the ceilings will be lowest toward 6z, then
improve after that. The lowest visibility should be the first
hour or so of the TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL