426
FXUS63 KGLD 061023
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
323 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 10-20% chance for a short period of light snow north of
  Highway 36 (mainly southwest Nebraska) around sunrise Saturday
  morning. No accumulation/impacts expected.

- NW winds may gust to 40-50 mph for a few hours Saturday
  afternoon. An isolated instance or two of gusts up to 60 mph
  can`t be ruled out across Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne county
  Kansas.

- 10-20% chance of fog, perhaps freezing fog, Sunday morning.

- Similar weather pattern continues next week with a warming trend
  Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 316 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

Added in some freezing drizzle this morning to the forecast
based off of the latest 06Z RAP and NAM soundings. Newest
soundings have come in with a bit more saturated low levels
along with a stout warm nose just above the surface. This aligns
well with the 07Z NBM showing 15-25% chance of freezing rain. At
this time thinking that any freezing drizzle potential would
remain along and north of the Kansas/Nebraska state line
affecting mainly Red Willow, Hitchcock and potentially Dundy
counties through around 10am CT or so. Have also trended winds a
bit more towards the GFS as it is handling the location and MSLP
of the low better than other guidance. Wind gusts around 50 mph
are possible mainly west of Highway 25. Still can`t rule out
some rogue 55-60 mph gusts especially across Yuma, Dundy and
Cheyenne county (KS) late this morning into the early afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1141 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Sat-Sat night: WNW to NW flow aloft will persist over the
region. Shortwave energy over the northern Rockies at 06 UTC
(per SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will progress ESE-SE
across the Northern/Central Plains today.. accompanied by a
modest surface low that will track ESE-SE from the NE Panhandle
(~12Z) to central NE (~18Z this afternoon) and Kansas City
(00-06Z this evening). High-res guidance continues to suggest a
brief potential for light precip around sunrise (~12-14Z) in
southwest Nebraska. The presence of a dry low-level airmass with
southern extent (toward the KS-NE border) may preclude
measurable precipitation in the Goodland county warning area.
While an increasingly prominent warm-nose will be present when
precipitation is possible (800 mb temps rising to 2-3C in the
~12-15Z time-frame), forecast soundings suggest that vertical
wetbulb profiles will remain at-or-below freezing (supportive of
snow). Breezy NW winds will develop early this afternoon.. as
the surface low progresses east of the Tri-State area. Winds
will weaken after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 122 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

Starting the extended period Sunday morning. Weak omega around
1-3 mb is forecast to be in place along and east of Highway 83
around sunrise with a deep saturated layer in place from 500mb
to the surface via 03 RAP13 cross sections as a cold front moves
through the area. Further looking at soundings from the same
time frame shows this as well with the entire profile below the
0C line which suggests to me snow would be the main p-type
especially across Hitchcock and Red Willow counties. This is
however very similar to the other morning when freezing fog and
freezing drizzle was present across northwest Kansas and led to
very slick roadways for the morning hours. I do notice as well
around 12-15Z warm air advection in the 850mb layer which
further raises my concerns for freezing fog/freezing drizzle to
occur as a warm nose may develop. Surface winds are also
forecast to be light from the east which is also
climatologically favorable for fog or drizzle. 00Z NAM12 is also
similar on the location but doesn`t show the omega and has a
little more drier air in the 750-700mb layer. Due to the shallow
nature of the lift and it being just below the dendritic growth
zone think the drizzle or fog is the more likely solution but
confidence in this is only around 10-20% at this time as I
would like to see a little more consistency with guidance. The
00Z HREF is ironically enough only showing around 15% chance of
ceilings falling below 1000 feet AGL which for freezing drizzle
and obviously fog the lower the ceilings the better for the
occurrence. Should this occur any fog or drizzle should be out
of the area around 12pm CT. Temperatures for Sunday are
currently forecast to be around normal for early December in the
upper 30s to mid 40s with the warmest across western portions
of the area as downsloping occurs and the cool air mass

Monday, northwesterly flow shifts a little further to the east which
shunts any potential disturbances away from the area this looks to
continue through midweek as well as we are forecast to see a warming
trend with Tuesday looking to the warmest with highs in the 60s.
Along with dry conditions. Breezy to gusty winds are forecast
as well Tuesday as the 850mb wind field increases. With the
warmer temperatures may need to keep an eye out for some
elevated fire weather conditions primarily along and north of
Highway 36.

Tuesday evening and into early Wednesday morning another clipper
system moves across the northern Plains and sends a cold front
through the region. GEFS ensemble members are split on the amount of
moisture in place ahead of the front which will depend on if
precipitation can occur with it. There is also potential for a
stronger front Thursday morning associated with a shortwave within
the northwesterly flow as the clipper system shunts the
northwesterly flow back to the west and we enter the same
pattern as we have been in. 00Z GEFS shows a bit more promise on
precipitation potential with this than what I`ve been seeing
the previous days but looks like it is consistent with what the
18Z run was showing as well so will be interesting to see if its
picking up on something or if these are outlier runs. However
on the flip side the 00Z run of the ECMWF-AIFS ensembles has the
area dry. Will leave with a dry forecast for now due to the
significant differences of guidance but is for sure something
to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

GLD: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period, with ceilings confined at or above ~8,000 ft AGL. WSW to
SW winds at ~10-15 knots Sat morning will shift to the NW and
increase to ~20-25 knots w/gusts to ~35 knots around noon
(~18-19Z).. breeziest during the early afternoon. Winds will
veer to the NNW and decrease to 15-25 knots by late afternoon..
further veering to the N and decreasing to 10-15 knots around,
or shortly before, sunset Sat evening.

MCK: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period, with ceilings confined at or above ~6,000 ft AGL. W to
SW winds at ~7-12 knots (tonight and Sat morning) will increase
to 12-17 knots late Sat morning (~17Z).. then shift to the NW
and increase to ~15-20 knots w/gusts to ~30 knots during the
early afternoon (~19Z). Winds will veer to the NNW and decrease
to 10-15 knots around, or shortly before, sunset Sat evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent