380
FXUS63 KGLD 051824
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1224 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- ~30% chance that thunderstorms may develop over a very limited
  portion of northwest Kansas ~4-7 pm CDT this afternoon, mainly
  in Graham-Gove-Wichita counties where a strong to severe storm
  capable of producing large hail and damaging winds is
  possible. Storm development will largely (perhaps entirely) be
  confined south and east of the Goodland county warning area.

- Additional showers and weak storms are forecast overnight into
  Monday morning.

- Cooler, albeit closer to normal high temperatures are forecast
  to start the week. Coolest will be Monday with highs in the
  low 50s.

- If clouds can clear out Monday night into Tuesday morning,
  some frost potential may be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Cold front continues to push slowly to the southeast across the
forecast area. A wide range of high temperatures is in store for the
day in wake of the front with highs in the mid 60s across Yuma
county to the low 80s across the southeast portion of the area.
Focus for the afternoon will be the progression of this front.
Showers and storms are forecast to develop along the front
during the afternoon as convective temperatures are breached as
well. If storms were to form in our forecast area the favored
location appears to be roughly along and east of a Hill City to
Monument Rocks line. Most guidance has the front clearing the
area before storms can form, but there still remains some that
does have storm in the area mentioned above. Confidence in
storms occurring along the front in our area is around 30-40%
currently; have tailored the forecast towards the 12ZNamNest as
it was handling the current position of the front the best. It
was convecting storms in the forecast area as well. If storms
were to form large hail to ping pong ball would be the main
threat especially initially or with any stronger updraft.
Guidance suggests that quite a few storms should develop along
the front which may ultimately end up limiting the hail threat
due to numerous competing updrafts. Damaging winds in the form
of wet microbursts would be the next hazard as a fairly stout
jet still remains in place along with increasing PWATS to around
1.5 inches. Due to the slow nature of the front along with
breezy winds on each side of the front leading to additional
convergence areas would not be overly surprised if a landspout
or two were to develop; the limiting factor is that lapse rates
are a little on the lower side for landspout formation but would
be something to keep an eye on. If the front again were to set
up in the area some localized hydro concerns may be able to form
due to the slow moving nature of the front, Corfidi vectors are
very quick so any storm would not be over a single area for a
long period of time and storms would essentially be tied to the
front which is forecast to gradually move to the southeast.

Overnight, a stronger cold front is again to move into the area
associated with low pressure over the northern Plains. Confidence is
increasing in showers and weak storms across mainly northern
portions of the area overnight as upslope component of the wind
would support some additional isentropic ascent as well. Showers are
most likely to occur but some increase in weak elevated CAPE may
yield some isolated rumbles of thunder. Despite the cold air
advection did nudge up overnight lows a few degrees due to
anticipated increase in cloud cover as low stratus moves into
the area from the north.

Monday, cold air advection continues to stream in with cloud
cover remaining in place over the majority of the day. Am seeing
some weak omega in the low levels throughout the morning hours
which may lead to some spotty showers or even drizzle as dry air
is forecast to be in place aloft. High temperatures will be the
main challenge for the day as a much cooler air mass ranging
from 4-8C 850mb temperatures lies in place across the area.
Current forecast has highs in the low to mid 50s across the
area, but may be a struggle to get out of the 40s if cloud cover
can remain thick. Another round of showers and isolated storms
is forecast to occur mainly across southern portions of the area
Monday night and into the morning hours Tuesday. Monday night
across northern portions of the area a surface high is forecast
to push into the area leading to light and variable winds. If
clouds are able to break then this would set up strong
radiational cooling setup as dew points potentially falling
into the mid 30s which would support frost potential. Due to
lower confidence in clouds breaking at this time will preclude
any frost mention in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Surface high remains in place to start the extended period on
Tuesday leading to tranquil conditions across the area as seasonal
temperatures continue currently forecast in the low 60s. Mid
week ridging across the southern Plains amplifies leading to
another round of above normal temperatures with highs in the
80s. Some breezier winds may develop with a surface trough mid
week which may bring some fire weather concerns but at this time
no significant concerns.

Latter portion of the week and into next weekend GFS and ECMWF both
show another large trough developing across western portions of the
CONUS which may lead to another active pattern for the area. The
pattern looks to be similar to what occurred yesterday with a
slightly further south surface low. Wind and perhaps some fire
weather at this time would perhaps be the main threats but exact
details are murky at this range but the pattern needs to be
monitored through the next few days for further trends.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1054 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Breezy winds are forecast through the afternoon gusting up to 30
knots with a northerly component. Showers and some storms are
forecast to develop overnight along a stronger front. Confidence
is higher in showers and storms affecting the MCK terminal at
this time. It is still possible for GLD to be impacting but the
better forcing remains to the north so confidence is only around
15-20% at this time. Stratus is also forecast to move in as
well overnight with MVFR conditions appearing likely. Some
periods of IFR are possible for each terminal but confidence is
to low at this time to nail down specific time frames so will
leave out for now.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg