383
FXUS63 KGLD 010815
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow will develop over portions of the area late
  this evening and overnight, mainly along and north of I-70.

- Snow will end from west-to-east late Monday morning, between
  sunrise (eastern CO) and noon (Hwy 283/Hill City). Expect
  total snow accumulations generally ranging from a dusting to
  2-3". Locally higher amounts (3-5") are possible within a
  narrow corridor/band of heavier snow that may develop along or
  near I-70 in eastern CO and northwest KS.

- Winds will be from the E to SE at 5-15 mph tonight and Monday
  morning. Blowing and drifting snow are not expected while
  precipitation is falling. Locations with fresh snow cover may
  experience some blowing and drifting snow Monday afternoon
  (after precipitation ends), as winds shift to the northwest
  and increase to 15 to 25 mph.

- Brief Warming/moderating trend on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Overview: An upper level wave over the Intermountain West
(today) will progress ESE-E across the 4-Corners (tonight) and
Southern Plains (Monday). In the lower levels, ~1035 mb Arctic
high pressure over the Dakotas and Central Plains (today) will
shift E across the Central and Northern MS River Valley
(tonight) and Ohio Valley (Monday).

Precipitation/snow will develop over the region tonight,
beginning (in earnest) ~06 UTC in eastern CO, as the
aforementioned upper wave traverses the 4-Corners. Recent runs
of high-res guidance (HRRR, RAP, NAM NEST) suggest that strong
mid-level warm advection in advance of the approaching wave..
and strong cyclonic shear vorticity on the northern fringe of a
~115 knot jet streak (progged to develop over southeast CO and
western KS overnight).. may aid in the development of a narrow
corridor/band of heavier precipitation along and near I-70 in
eastern CO and northwest KS (including Burlington and Goodland)
between midnight and sunrise (06-12 UTC) Monday morning. Given
that the majority of high-res guidance support such a scenario..
storm total snow accumulations have been adjusted accordingly.
In general, expect accumulations ranging from a dusting to 2-3"
though.. locally higher amounts (3-5") are certainly possible
within any narrow/heavy bands. With light (5-15 mph) E to SE
winds expected late tonight and Monday morning, blowing/drifting
snow is not anticipated while precipitation is occurring.
Precipitation will rapidly end from west-to-east between sunrise
(eastern CO) and noon (Hwy 283/Hill City) as the upper wave
progresses east of the Tri-State area. In areas with fresh snow
cover.. some blowing/drifting snow is possible Monday afternoon
(after precipitation ends) as winds shift to the NW and increase
to ~15-25 mph. Expect highs in the mid 20`s to mid 30`s and
overnight (Tue morning) lows ranging from the single digits to
mid-teens, coldest where snow cover is present.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

The central plains will be under a broad northwest to zonal
flow through the long term period, between an upper low over
eastern Canada and a ridge off the west coast of California. A
couple of embedded weak waves will bring low chances of light
precipitation to the area. The first moves through Colorado
Tuesday night and Wednesday, which is where the best chances for
accumulating snow will reside. Ensembles continue to show light
snow amounts, generally less than 1", though the ECMWF is
slightly higher, showing up to 2" in Kit Carson/Cheyenne
counties. Winds have increased slightly, models now showing
gusts up to 25 mph accompanying the snow, so there may be some
minor blowing and drifting if snow does accumulate. A dry period
will follow for Thursday and Friday. A couple of weak waves
over the weekend may result in a few sprinkles and/or flurries,
but do not appear impactful at this time. Temperatures will be
slightly below normal on Wednesday with the clouds and
precipitation, then gradually warm to near or slightly above
normal Thursday through Saturday, before cooling off again to
slightly below normal on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1016 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Snow is moving through the area and is forecast to be upon KGLD
by 6Z. Snow will persist through the night, hitting it`s peak at
KGLD likely between 6-10Z and KMCK between 9-12Z. There will be
times throughout the night that snow will briefly stop. Snow
will be leaving both airports by 16-18Z this morning. There is
another chance of virga/snow Monday night into Tuesday morning,
beyond 6Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA