485
FXUS63 KGLD 202011
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
111 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain began to fall Thursday afternoon in the area. The rain is
  forecast to linger until Friday afternoon/evening. The bulk of
  the rain should fall overnight Thursday into Friday.

- Another chance for precipitation is forecast around Sun/Mon.

- Colder pattern expected around Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1243 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Rain is currently falling across most of the area south of I-70 as
the surface low is taking shape near the Northern Panhandles Region
while moist streams in from the south. The rain is forecast to
continue extending north as the upper low roughly over the Four
Corners region continues to lift northeast. Temperatures should now
remain fairly steady in the 40s and low 50s.

This evening and into tonight, the rain is forecast to continue as
the low center moves just south of the Tri-State area. There may be
some 1-3 hour breaks in the rain as bands form along the northern
side and push north. Where there are breaks in the rain, fog may
develop as the air is forecast to be fairly saturated tonight. Keep
an eye out as there could be some dense patches if the breaks in the
rain are longer than currently forecast. With the cloud cover and
saturation, temperatures should generally remain in the upper 30s
and 40s. However, parts of Eastern Colorado may see temperatures
near freezing as the low shifts east and allows for some cold air
advection. While generally less than a 10% chance, enough cold air
could mix in and allow for some snow to form. With the warm ground
temperatures, accumulations would likely max out around a trace to 1
inch. Caution is advised late in the night and into the morning as
any elevated surface in freezing temperatures could develop slick
spots.

Tomorrow, the upper and surface low are forecast to push off to the
east. This should lower precipitation chances through the day and
allow it to end from west to east during the afternoon and evening
hours. With the lingering precipitation and cloud cover,
temperatures will likely cap out in the 40s. Winds should shift to
out of the north, but remain around 10-15 mph with a weak high
moving in behind the low.

Friday evening and overnight, some showers may linger in the east
depending on how quickly the low moves off. Otherwise, the main
concern will be the potential for fog as the high pressure looks
unlikely to bring in drier surface air fast enough. Though with
drier air moving in and winds forecast to shift to out of the west,
dense fog may not be able to form or only be present during the
early hours of the night. For those who see skies clear, it should
become cold in the 20s while the rest of the area remains in the
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Saturday is forecast to be fairly mild as drier air continues to
move in and slight ridging aloft develops over the area. With this,
winds should be around 10 mph with temperatures in the 50s and low
60s underneath mostly sunny skies.

Sunday and Monday, another upper low is forecast to move northeast
from the Baja Peninsula and through the area. As mentioned in the
prior discussion, guidance is coming into better agreement on the
track. The issue remains timing with ensembles trying to push it
faster east compared to deterministic guidance. The forecast calls
for rain on Sunday as the upper low pushes a surface low to just
southwest of the area. This will allow some moisture to wrap around
and form some showers just ahead of the low. That being said, the
showers may be much spottier and narrow in coverage compared to
today/tomorrow as there doesn`t look to be sufficient moisture
recovery ahead of this next system. As such, totals are currently
forecast to be below a quarter of an inch. Severe or winter weather
currently looks unlikely with no instability due to the low moisture
and temperatures in the 40s and 50s preventing frozen precipitation.
Monday would then see similar temperatures, but with clearer skies
and little to no precipitation. The exception is in the slower
moving scenarios where the precipitation would start later Sunday
and then linger through the day Monday.

The mid part of the week is forecast to be cooler as a larger trough
sets up over the Plains in the wake of the cut-off low. With higher
pressure and colder air moving in, highs are forecast to be closer
to the 30s and 40s with lows in the teens and 20s. There are some
small chances for wintry precipitation, but the drier air that is
forecast to move in behind the early week system will likely inhibit
most of the area from seeing anything.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1015 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the first 3-6
hours as fog has dissipated across the area. Some high clouds
around 15000-20000ft are forecast during this time. After about
20-21Z, KGLD should see showers and lower ceilings around 1000ft
begin to move in while KMCK is currently forecast to see the
showers around 23Z. After the showers move in, heavier showers
will become possible after a few hours (mainly between 00-12Z)
along with ceilings steadily lowering to around a few hundred
feet. No severe weather or strong wind gusts are currently
expected at this time. Do be cautious though tonight as
temperatures are forecast to lower to a bit above freezing,
potentially providing a chance for icing. Freezing fog and
drizzle could also form, especially closer to sunrise. That
being said, the chances for freezing near the surface are around
25% as the cloud cover should help temperatures stay insulated.
Another thing to note is that the precipitation may not be
steady with some breaks inbetween. The longer the break, the
greater the chance for fog and maybe even some dense fog.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK