679
FXUS63 KGLD 180725
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1225 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to dense fog may impact morning travel Wednesday and
  Thursday mornings.

- Precipitation chances continue for Thursday into Friday. 30%
  chance for a dusting of snow over western part of the forecast
  area.

- Another storm system moving onto the Plains early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1224 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

This morning, we have a 500 mb low moving through the
Plains, which has lead to some radar echoes overnight, evidence of
some virga to light showers. This low, and any lingering
precipitation, will clear the area by sunrise. There is a 5% chance
of fog in the extreme northeastern CWA this morning as the low
leaves the CWA.

Later today, a weak 500 mb ridge will move over the Plains while an
850 mb high over eastern Colorado drives more northern air into the
CWA. The northeastern CWA will only warm into the mid to upper 50s
while the southwestern CWA will warm into the mid 60s. As the ridge
axis moves over the CWA, winds will become light and variable
through the midday.

Heavier cloud cover will move in later in the day as the high moves
off to the east. The mostly cloudy skies tonight will work to keep
lows in the mid 30s. As the ridge axis clears the area,
southeasterly winds will be favored. This will lead to upslope flow
across at least the eastern half of the CWA. With RH values nearing
100% overnight, fog is expected to start forming around 8Z in the
southeastern CWA. By 12-15Z, locations east of the Colorado border
have a 50% chance of seeing at least patchy fog and areas east of
highway 83 have a 30% chance of seeing widespread dense fog. There
is a 30% chance winds will be more southerly and prevent fog
formation. Even if fog does not form, stratus will form across most
of the area.

With the surface being so saturated, there is an 80-90% chance
temperatures will stay above freezing tonight. However, on the off
chance temperatures do dip below freezing, it would likely be the
Norton county area that would cool that far. Combined with the fog,
freezing fog is a heavily impactful conditional concern. There is a
less than 5% chance freezing fog will occur, but if it does expect
very slick elevated surfaces, such as bridges.

Fog should lift by 18Z Wednesday, aided by a low-level low coming
off the Southern Rockies. This will help keep clouds over the
eastern CWA most of the day. The western CWA will warm into the low
60s once the clouds clear out. There`s disagreement for highs in the
eastern CWA. If the clouds stick around, which is likely, highs will
only top out in the low 50s. If the clouds are able to clear out,
low 60s will also be possible. The NBM prefers the warmer solution,
but the likelihood of the clouds remaining puts forecaster
confidence in the cooler solution.

Wednesday night, a shortwave ridge moves over the region as winds
become northeasterly, and RH values climb to near 100%. This could
lead to another night of fog, but confidence is lower for Thursday
morning fog versus Wednesday morning. Lows in the fog prone areas
look to remain in the mid 30s while the western CWA could drop to
near 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Wednesday and Wednesday night the upper level ridge over the Central
Plains will expand between the departing upper level low that was
over Wyoming today, and the deepening upper level low over Southern
California. This will allow seasonal temperatures for the forecast
area, and light winds.

Thursday through Friday the upper level low is forecast to move
easterly over the Desert Southwest.  There is model disagreement
regarding how deep the low will be over the Desert Southwest, which
will affect how quickly the low moves to the east.  Overall models
shift the low eastward onto the Plains.  However the low is forecast
to fill as it moves onto the Plains.  Seeing the low pressure that
is suppose to bring precipitation start to weaken as it moves over
the forecast area does raise doubts that we will see precipitation.
Latest model ensemble probabilities favor the southern half of the
forecast area with the best chance for precipitation.  Based on the
orientation of the precipitation chances, and the surface/low level
winds, am wondering if a corridor of precipitation will form along a
frontal boundary/convergence area extending west to east somewhere
over the forecast area.  Where this corridor forms will be
determined by the track of the weakening low pressure system.  Based
on model ensemble probabilities there is a 30% chance for a dusting
of snow in East Central CO, that may extent as far east as Highway
27. The track of this storm system is not favorable for pulling in
enough cold air to generate much, if any, snowfall. Models typically
track closed lows like this too fast, so would not be surprised if
the timing for the better rainfall chances shifts more into Friday.

Saturday through Sunday an upper level short wave ridge moves in
behind the departing/weakening storm system.  The forecast continues
to be dry with seasonal temperatures.

Early next week another storm system moves onto the Plains.  This
storm system should be stronger than the prior one.  Since it will
likely be deeper/stronger than the last storm system, am skeptical
of how quickly it will move onto the Plains.  There is quite a bit
of model variability with the track of this system, as expected at
this time range.  The current model ensemble favors precipitation
remaining east and southeast of the forecast area.  Will see if this
trend continues in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at KGLD and have a 90% chance of
prevailing at KMCK through the period. KMCK will have a 20-30%
chance of seeing some sprinkles before 12Z. While this will not
impact flight categories, this could present an icing threat,
especially around 4,000-6,000 feet AGL, where 0C isotherm is
sitting.

Winds for both locations will become light and variable today as
as an inverted ridge moves through the area. Tomorrow, after 6Z,
models are becoming pretty aggressive with stratus and fog
forming near KMCK, which may impact KGLD too. If the forecast
stays on track, IFR conditions are likely at KMCK Wednesday
morning and possible at KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...CA