211
FXUS63 KGLD 101949
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1249 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry forecast through the week until next weekend.

- Gradual warming temperature trend through the work week.

- Low relative humidity Tuesday and Friday with breezy winds
  leading to some fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1245 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Upper ridge axis over the western CONUS is resulting in
northwest flow over the central plains. A shortwave trough
embedded in the flow will move through early Tuesday along with
a weak surface trough. Main impact will be an increase in wind
mid to late Tuesday morning when the inversion breaks. Wind
speeds will be highest in northeast Colorado and adjacent areas
of northwest Kansas, with gusts in the 30-40 mph range possible
for a few hours, then diminishing in the afternoon. These areas
will also see afternoon relative humidity dropping into upper
teens to lower 20s, so a brief period of critical fire weather
may be possible. However, not enough confidence in either
longevity of those conditions, since winds will be decreasing in
the afternoon, or in reaching the 15% threshold for humidity
for any fire weather highlights at this time. Otherwise, the
warming trend will commence with highs on Tuesday around 70. The
upper ridge axis will reach the Rockies on Wednesday and
central plains on Thursday, with mild and dry conditions
expected both days. Do not see any fire weather concerns with
relative humidity minimums staying above 20% both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

An upper low will deepen over southern California on Friday with
downstream ridging over the plains resulting in another mild and
dry day. As temperatures climb well into the 70s, afternoon
relative humidity minimums fall into the teens. In addition,
a deepening surface trough in Colorado will increase the
pressure gradient and southeast winds currently have a high
probability (greater than 70%) of gusting over 25 mph. This
combination of low humidity and gusty winds may result in
critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon, especially in
Colorado where winds are strongest. Cold front then moves
through Friday night and Saturday with temperatures closer to
normal behind it. Isolated showers are possible on Saturday as
northern stream shortwave brushes the area and the front moves
through, but confidence is low in precipitation chances. Highs
on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s and lows Saturday night
in the 20s and 30s. Better chances for precipitation will begin
on Sunday as the upper low approaches the Texas panhandle and
the associated precipitation shield overspreads southwest Kansas
and perhaps northwest Kansas, with areas south of Interstate 70
seeing the relative best chances. Precipitation chances may
linger into Monday depending on the track of the upper low. If
it stays further south, as suggested by the ECMWF, little to no
precipitation may occur, but a track slightly further north, as
suggested by the GFS, would result in better chances. Finally,
can`t completely rule out a rain/snow mix in northeast Colorado
Saturday or Sunday where wet bulb zero heights are lower, but
not expecting any accumulation based on recent warmth. Highs on
Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s and lows mainly in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1012 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Southerly surface winds will gust up to 20 kts at times
through this afternoon, diminish tonight, then increase again
from the northwest mid to late Tuesday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024