148
FXUS63 KGLD 171109
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
409 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and gusts around 30 MPH are forecast
  today.

- Above normal temperatures continue into the mid-week.

- An active/unsettled weather pattern will return to the region
  by the end of the work week (Thu-Fri), when a complex storm
  system will bring precipitation (rain) to much of the Tri-
  State area. Low (5%) chance for a rain/snow mix.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1216 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

This morning, we are starting out with a 500 mb low moving over
the Rockies with a corresponding 850 mb low coming out of
northern Colorado. Combined with a ridge over the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley, we`ve had a strong LLJ this morning.
Gusts ranging from 20 to 35 kts have been mixing to the surface
overnight. As we get closer to sunrise and the low moves
eastward, the LLJ will push off and gusts will gradually cease.
Additionally, with the low, we could see some light showers this
morning, mainly in Yuma and bordering counties, forced from the
500 mb vorticity.

Today, as the low sweeps through the CWA, expect a cold front
to move through and for winds to become northwesterly. While
there is not a lot of cold air behind the front, the
northwesterly winds will become gusty. Gusts of 20-30 kts are
forecast today, but locations along and south of U.S. 40 west of
U.S. 83 could see some 35 kts gusts. Temperatures will warm
into the low 60s in the northwestern CWA, and near 70 in the
southeastern CWA. With these warmer temperatures in the windier
section, drier dew points may also mix down and lower RH values
to the mid teens. If this occurs, briefly critical fire weather
conditions are possible in Greeley and Wichita counties this
afternoon.

Overnight tonight, northwesterly winds will continue, but
weaken. Lows will drop into the mid 30s for most of the area,
but eastern Colorado could dip below freezing. We are
forecasting the surface to become saturated, but with
northwesterly, downsloping winds, fog is unlikely. There is a 5%
chance the winds go calm and fog starts forming, especially
along and east of a line from Haigler, NE to Gove, KS.

Tuesday, a weak 500 mb ridge will move over the Plains while an
850 mb high over eastern Colorado drives more northern air into
the CWA. Temperatures look to top out in the low 60s. Heavier
cloud cover will move in later in the day as the high moves off
to the east. The mostly cloudy skies Tuesday night will work to
keep lows in the mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Overview: Below average forecast confidence* late this week
through early next week.. when a complex, split-flow synoptic
pattern will prevail over the Continental United States (CONUS).

Wednesday: An upper level ridge and weak/baggy MSLP-850 mb
height gradient in the lee of the central Rockies will foster
mostly clear skies, above-average temperatures and light winds.

Thursday-Friday: Expect cooler temperatures and well above
average chances for precipitation. Low confidence in further
details / forecast specifics. An upper level low moving ashore
northern California today will slowly drift southward through
central CA (tonight-Tue) before stalling/cutting-off over
southern CA (Tue night-Wed). 00Z 11/17 GFS and ECMWF operational
guidance indicate that the aforementioned low will remain cut-
off until yet-another upper low moves ashore the CA coast,
gradually ejecting the former low ENE-NE across the Desert
Southwest (Wed night), southern Rockies (Thu) and TX-OK
Panhandle (Thu night).. where/when it will be accompanied by a
developing mid-latitude cyclone.. and, at which point, a
strengthening southern stream jet will rapidly transport the
upper low (and associated cyclone) eastward across the Central-
Southern Plains (Fri) and Central MS River Valley (Fri night).
Current iterations of long range guidance suggest that this
system will predominantly be `southern-stream` in nature, in
other words.. that this system will [1] largely be disconnected
from the northern-stream branch of the jet and [2] unable (or
far-less likely) to access or `tap into` a Canadian/Arctic
airmass. As such, southern-stream systems tend to develop in
weaker baroclinic environments.. they`re more likely to be
`limited` in terms of maturation/intensity and.. they`re less
likely to support wintry precipitation, especially in the
absence of a pre-existing/preceding Arctic airmass.

Saturday-Sunday: Split flow aloft continues. Long range guidance
suggests that another upper level low will stall/cut-off along
the southern Pacific Coast and Desert Southwest this weekend..
with confluent flow aloft anchored in the lee of the central
Rockies. If this is the case, expect benign weather
characterized by dry conditions, light winds and near-average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK.
Stratus east of KMCK this morning should remain east of the
airport, but any clouds that do manage to float over the airport
will be around 2,000 feet AGL, or lower. Winds will generally
remain weak until the cold front passes later this morning, then
expect gusts to climb to around 20-25 kts before calming near
sunset. There is a low potential for stratus and fog tomorrow
morning, mainly for KMCK, but confidence in it impacting flight
categories is less than 15%.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CA