024
FXUS63 KGLD 150900
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through the weekend. Return to more seasonable as the work
  week goes on.

- Multiple chances at precipitation next week with the first
  being Monday morning across northwest portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Synoptic Overview: An upper level trough traversing the
Northern Plains this morning will progress east across the Upper
Midwest and Upper Great Lakes this afternoon.. temporarily
suppressing/flattening an upper level ridge over the central
CONUS. Meanwhile, a cut-off low located offshore the southern
Pacific Coast at 06 UTC this morning will undergo a complex
evolution (splitting into two distinct features) after
meandering ashore central-southern California late this aft-
eve.. the first [feature] of which is progged to gradually lift
northward into the Great Basin (NV-ID) Sun-Sun night.. and the
second [feature] of which is progged to lift ENE-NE across the
Desert Southwest/4-Corners (Sun) and central Rockies (Sun
night).

Today-Tonight: Synoptic subsidence in the wake of the
progressive trough traversing the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest will drive a modest (~1015 mb) inverted surface ridge
southward into the Central Plains this morning, the leading edge
of which will manifest as a northerly surface wind shift and
effective cold frontal passage aloft (1000 to 2500 ft AGL).
Expect 850 mb temperatures ~14-19C at 21 UTC this afternoon
(compared to 20C at 21 UTC Friday), yielding cooler (albeit
still above-normal) highs in the lower 70`s.. and overnight lows
in the mid 30`s to lower 40`s. Virtually all guidance indicates
that 30-40 knot northerly low-level (850 mb) flow initially
accompanying the 850 mb front will rapidly and substantially
weaken by mid-late morning (16-18 UTC) -- and that surface winds
may (perhaps) gust to 15-25 mph for a brief period prior to
weakening and becoming variable this afternoon.

Sun-Sun night: Downstream of the complex cut-off low over the
Desert Southwest and Intermountain West, and.. in the wake of
the recently departed progressive trough (traversing the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes today).. the central CONUS ridge
will rebound/amplify and a low-level southerly return flow
regime will ensue, as modest high pressure slowly shifts east
toward the MS River Valley and a surface trough develops in the
lee of the Rockies (from NM to MT). Expect clear skies and
breezy (~15-25 mph) SSE-SE winds.. with highs similar-to, albeit
a few degrees cooler than, today.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Starting the extended period Monday morning a surface low is
forecast to be in place across northeast Colorado bringing the
potential for light rain across northwestern portions of the
area. Due to wet bulb zero temperatures remaining warm would be
surprised at this point if snow were to occur. GEFS-Mean spread
however still shows quite a bit of discrepancy with the position
of the low as it may end up being a bit further to the east
closer to the Tri-State border area which would make the
precipitation a bit more widespread. The chances of that appears
to be 5-10% at this time. Precipitation chances would end late
morning across the area as the low quickly broadens out as it
moves off to the west. Breezy to gusty winds are forecast on the
backside of the low. The magnitude of how breezy continues to
be worked out with the GFS showing a stronger low which would
lead to wind gusts of 40-50 mph; the NAM is weaker with
negligible winds of 10-20 mph and the ECMWF is in between. The
EC-AIFS however is interestingly similar to the GFS on strength
and positioning which does increase my confidence a bit in the
stronger winds. High temperatures for the day remain forecast in
the 60s.

A continued active pattern is forecast to continue through the
remainder of the extended period with a gradual cooling trend to
more normal temperatures. Guidance continues to show a stronger
system moving towards the area. Unfortunately tons of spread on
positioning and timing remain with ensembles. A further north
system would favor precipitation for the area versus a more cut
off low across the southern Plains would lessen rainfall chances
as the area would be more prone to being dry slotted. Should
rainfall occur with this system it would favor Thursday into
early Friday morning but currently not seeing any potential
hazards. Ensembles have fallen off of the snowfall potential
with this system as well at least for the 00z run of the LREF.
The previous runs did have snowfall potential so will be
interesting to see if this was an anomalous run or not.
Nevertheless confidence is higher in near normal temperatures
and increased cloud cover across the area.

Another system is forecast to follow later in the week in to
the weekend as well reinforcing the near normal temperatures
across the area. Even more spread is still seen ensembles with
positioning and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both
terminals, with ceilings confined to cirrus at or above ~20,000
ft AGL. Light WNW winds will shift to the NNW or N and increase
to 10-15 knots in assoc/w an effective cold frontal passage
within a few hours after sunrise (12-15Z). A brief period of
northerly LLWS (~40 kt at ~2000 ft AGL) is possible a few hours
on either side of sunrise this morning at the McCook terminal.
North winds -may- gust up to ~20 knots for a short period late
this morning.. before weakening and becoming variable during the
early afternoon (by ~20-21Z). Light/variable winds will prevail
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.. shifting
to the SE by sunrise (~12Z) Sun morning, at the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent