899
FXUS63 KGLD 030812
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
112 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are forecast to continue through the
  week. Near record to record high temperatures again possible
  Tuesday.

- No obvious signals for precipitation for the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1146 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Today, an 850 mb high pressure system will move east over the
North- Central High Plains. This will cause winds to be
moderately variable throughout the day, but become southeasterly
in the afternoon hours. Sustained winds around 10-20 kts and
gusts up to 30 kts in in eastern Colorado are forecast. High
temperatures today will warm to around 60 as the winds will keep
the surface pretty well mixed. Clouds will start moving in
during the afternoon, as the high exits the area.

Overnight tonight, a mid-level low over the Northern Plains
will extend a trough axis over the CWA. This axis looks to pass
through the CWA around 6-12Z. While there will be a decent
amount of mid- level forcing as the axis moves through, the lack
of moisture will prevent any precipitation from occurring. At
the surface, the cold front is not expected to pass through
until about 12Z. Locations in the eastern CWA are forecast to be
around 100% RH, so patchy fog is possible. Southerly winds may
once again prevent fog formation. Temperatures look to cool into
the mid and upper 30s.

Tuesday will be a dry and warm day, pretty similar to Sunday. A
high pressure system will move over the CWA and temperatures
will climb to near 80. This does create some fire weather
concerns, as RH values will fall into the mid teens, especially
along and west of KS HWY 25. However, with the high pressure
system moving over the CWA, wind gusts are expected to remain
below 20 kts for majority of the area. As we reach the northern
row of counties, the potential for gusts above 25 kts increases
to about 30%. Much like Sunday, there is currently less than 20%
confidence Red Flag Warning criteria will be hit, but and hour
or two of critical fire weather conditions in northern Yuma
county has a 60% chance of occurrence. Current limiting factor
is 500-700 mb wind gusts not being able to mix down to the
surface.

Tuesday night, another cold front is expected to move through
the area. Lows will only cool into the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

Overview: An initially progressive and largely unidirectional
flow pattern over the CONUS (mid-week) will become increasingly
sinuous (late-week) and amplified/blocked (this weekend)..
culminating in the development of a deep, full-latitude trough
/cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS and a pronounced
upper level ridge over the western CONUS. Expect an increasing
potential for active and unsettled weather over the Northern
Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.. where episodic
progressive cyclones will peripherally affect the Central Plains
in the form of occasional dry frontal passages.

Wednesday-Friday: Expect modest fluctuations in wind speed/
direction and temperature from day-to-day, with above-average
highs alternating between the 60`s and 70`s, warmest on Thu.

Saturday-Monday: Similar, albeit with cooler temperatures and
more pronounced day-to-day fluctuations in wind speed and
direction.. including a potential for strong NNW-N winds on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

0535Z UPDATE: The inversion at KGLD seems to have decouple the
surface from the stronger, post-frontal winds. This is leading
to LLWS at 200-400 feet AGL from the northeast at 30-40 kts. A
few gusts are still expected to reach the surface, but they will
be sporadic.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. A
cold front has passed over both KGLD and KMCK over the past few
hours. Gusty winds from the northeast will continue for a few
hours, becoming more infrequent as the night goes on. By 11Z,
winds will become variable before they start coming from the
southeast and strengthen. Gusts up around 20 kts are expected
this afternoon before sunset. After sunset, clouds will move in
from the northwest and winds will settle into the 10-15 kts
range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 410 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Record high temperatures may be in jeopardy across portions of
the area on Tuesday, November 4th. Record highs and current
forecast highs for the date are listed below (in Fahrenheit).

Goodland:   83 in 2020... current forecast 80
Burlington: 84 in 2020... current forecast 78
McCook:     84 in 2020... current forecast 78
Hill City:  86 in 2020... current forecast 78

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...Trigg