140
FXUS63 KGLD 011730
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1030 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow may develop over portions of the area Tue night
  into Wed morning. Light amounts, minimal impact(s).

- Dry conditions expected through the remainder of the work
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 129 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

This morning, we have a trough moving over the region, which is
producing snow and cold temperatures. The trough axis will lead
to a cold front passing through the CWA later this morning,
which will dry out the column and end any remaining
precipitation. This cold front will enter the northwestern CWA
around 16Z this morning and progress fairly quickly to the
southeast. By 21Z, it will be through the area. Precipitation
will be ending about 1-3 hours ahead of the FROPA, so by 18-20Z,
precipitation will have fully ended in the CWA.

We are still forecasting trace to 3 inches of snow to fall with
the highest snowfall amounts expected to be in the southeastern
CWA. Most of the CWA will receive less than 2 inch of snow.
There is still a 10-20% chance a band of snow could lead to 2-5
inches of snow. If this does occur, it would likely be around
Thomas, Sheridan, or Gove counties, but may reach Hill City. We
will see occasional gusts of 20 kts during the snow, which could
lead to some brief patches of less than 1 mile visibility, but
generally visibilities will range from 1-6 miles during the
snow. Travel impacts will should be minimal, but if the snowband
does occur, travel will become hazardous.

Temperatures this morning are still forecast to be in the low
to mid teens, with some northwestern locations potentially
seeing upper single digits. Thankfully, ahead of the front,
winds will weaken to generally under 10 kts during the coldest
parts of the morning. This will keep wind chills around 0, so
bundle up as you`re heading out this morning!

Today, after the front moves through, northwesterly winds will
pick up and we will see gusts around the 20-23 kts range. We
will see the sky clear out and temperatures will warm into the
30s for most of the CWA. There is a 15-25% chance these winds
will start blowing the freshly fallen snow. With such light
accumulations, widespread impacts to visibility are not
anticipated. The eastern CWA will remain cooler due to the
clouds lingering later into the day. Highs in along and east of
a line from McCook, NE to Gove, KS will likely not climb above
freezing.

Overnight tonight, temperatures will cool into the teens with
the eastern CWA still remaining the coolest, dropping to around
10F. There is a 10% chance a very weak shortwave comes off the
Northern Rockies around 9-15Z tomorrow morning, which would lead
to some flurries or just virga. The lower 100-200 mb look to be
fairly dry tomorrow, so virga is favored. Wind chills Tuesday
morning are forecast to be marginally warmer than Monday`s, only
dropping into the mid single digits.

Tuesday, westerly flow aloft is favored and a low-level ridge
passing over in the morning will give us some WAA from the
south. This will get temperatures into the 40s, maybe even low
50s, during the day Tuesday.

Late Tuesday afternoon, an 850 mb low is forecast to eject off
the Rockies and bring another cold front and precipitation
chance to the CWA. Lows Tuesday night will remain fairly warm,
due to the additional moisture content, likely staying in the
20s. Precipitation looks to start creeping into the northwestern
portion of the area around 6-12Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

The central plains will be under a broad northwest to zonal
flow through the long term period, between an upper low over
eastern Canada and a ridge off the west coast of California. A
couple of embedded weak waves will bring low chances of light
precipitation to the area. The first moves through Colorado
Tuesday night and Wednesday, which is where the best chances for
accumulating snow will reside. Ensembles continue to show light
snow amounts, generally less than 1", though the ECMWF is
slightly higher, showing up to 2" in Kit Carson/Cheyenne
counties. Winds have increased slightly, models now showing
gusts up to 25 mph accompanying the snow, so there may be some
minor blowing and drifting if snow does accumulate. A dry period
will follow for Thursday and Friday. A couple of weak waves
over the weekend may result in a few sprinkles and/or flurries,
but do not appear impactful at this time. Temperatures will be
slightly below normal on Wednesday with the clouds and
precipitation, then gradually warm to near or slightly above
normal Thursday through Saturday, before cooling off again to
slightly below normal on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1006 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. ~10 knot
WSW to W winds (late this morning) will veer to the NW and
increase to 15-25 knots early this afternoon. Winds will back to
the W and decrease to ~10 knots shortly before sunset (~23Z)
this evening. Light (~10 knot) W winds will back to the SW (by
sunrise) and SSW (late Tue morning).. near the end of the 18Z
TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. ~10 knot
WSW to W winds (late this morning) will veer to the NW and
increase to 15-20 knots during the early-mid afternoon. Winds
will back to the W and decrease to ~10 knots shortly before
sunset (~23Z) this evening. Light (5-10 knot) W winds will
gradually back to the SW by the end of the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Vincent