102
FXUS63 KGLD 032255
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
355 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries are forecast to continue over mainly western portions
  of the area through sunset. Most of the snow accumulation is
  expected over Eastern Colorado.

- Fog may form in East Central CO tonight.

- Wind chills Thursday morning are forecast to be in the single
  digits to low teens.

- Very low chances for snow Saturday in Yuma County, but
  otherwise dry through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 350 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Model data indicates minor moisture advection tonight over East
Central CO. Soundings for that part of the forecast area also
show saturated low levels. However the saturated layer is rather
shallow. This is where snow has been falling for most of the
day, so this will already be a rather moist environment.
Confidence for fog to form that is under a mile is 40-60%. Any
fog should end shortly after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Well the low end snow forecast scenario seems to be the one that
panned out for this system, with majority of the system staying
west. As the system continues east, we could see the occasional
flurries through sunset, but for the most part the area will likely
remain snow free this afternoon. A surface high over Eastern
Colorado will push south this evening and into the overnight hours,
helping to gradually clear skies Thursday morning. The low level
moisture will stick around through mid-day Thursday as the upper
level trough axis swings across the Central Plains. With the
lingering moisture and light winds out of the south, freezing fog
may be possible tonight. It`s also possible that temperatures are
too cold with overnight lows in the teens across the Tri-State area.
Wind chills will fall after midnight to shortly after sunrise into
the low teens and single digits.

As the upper trough continues to swing across the Central Plains
Thursday, dry conditions are expected with clear to mostly clear
skies starting after midday. Temperatures should be a bit warmer as
well with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Overnight lows tomorrow
night will be in the teens to low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Northwest upper level flow will dominate the weather pattern for
this portion of the forecast.  Models agree rather well with the
weather pattern through Wednesday.  Temperatures will be near to
almost ten degrees above normal.

Models have an upper level short wave trough moving through the High
Plains Saturday.  There may be some low chances for snow in Yuma
County that day.  However, despite the minor upper level short wave
trough moving through, am doubtful this will become reality due to
the majority of the snow chances being well north of the forecast
area.  In addition soundings show a rather large dew point
depression below the cloud base of roughly 15k ft AGL.

Aside from this short wave trough passage, there will be frequent
minor upper level trough passages through the northwest flow over
the Plains; the more notable ones will be on Monday and Wednesday.
Soundings show rather large dew point depressions present on these
days when the short wave troughs move through. Unless this changes,
do not expect there to be much more than clouds accompanying the
troughs through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1028 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected over the KMCK and KGLD
terminals through the TAF period due to low ceilings from the
mostly broken to overcast skies lingering over the area.
Northeast winds will gradually become southerly by ~09Z over
both terminals and continue shifting to be out of the southwest
through the end of the period. Winds should be 5-10 kts this
afternoon through the overnight with occasional gusts to 20 kts
between 18-21Z this afternoon. Winds will increase after
sunrise with sustained speeds of 10-15 kts for the terminals.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...KMK