155
FXUS63 KGLD 052040
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
140 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest
  winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday.

- A 20% chance of a rain/snow mix Saturday morning.  Little to
  no accumulation is currently forecast.

- Similar weather pattern continues next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 138 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows a trough over the Great Lakes region
and a ridge over the West Coast.  Northwest flow was present between
the two features.  Within the flow a short wave trough was
progressing southward over the High Plains.  This shallow trough has
led to sprinkles occurring over Northeast CO.

For the rest of today the sprinkles may continue over the northwest
part of the forecast area as the upper level short wave trough
continues to move southward.  The sprinkles will end this afternoon
as the trough shifts more south of the forecast area and subsidence
moves in.  Meanwhile the breezy winds will become light as
temperatures cool with the setting sun later this afternoon.

Tonight winds will be light and variable as a surface high pressure
moves through.  Before sunrise winds will become from the southwest
behind the exiting high pressure.

Saturday another subtle upper level short wave trough will move
through over the forecast area, with a surface trough moving through
at the surface.  Winds will turn to the northwest behind the trough.
Low level winds will be rather strong behind the trough.  Most of
the day there will be an inversion present over atleast the east
half or so of the forecast area.  This will prevent the stronger
winds from reaching the ground until after 3 PM local time or so
when the inversion erodes; this may result in a hour or two of the
strongest winds for the day before winds decline.  The strongest
winds look to be over East Central CO where the inversion will erode
away the soonest; late morning.

Looking at wind gust potential, the maximum speed is around 65 MPH
for East Central CO.  The maximum speed declines to under 50 MPH
moving east of the CO/KS border.  However, have less than 10%
confidence these winds will occur. The most likely speeds seem to be
in the 45-50 MPH range for East Central CO. Elsewhere to the east
the winds of similar magnitude are higher about the ground. This
would require the winds to mix deeper to reach similar speeds. As
such confidence is 20% or less for the 50 MPH gusts to extend into
KS and Nebraska beyond Highway 27.

Shifting to precipitation chances, cloud bases should be lower than
today, around 4k ft. AGL. There will be some isentropic lift and
frontogenesis with the trough passage over the northern part of the
forecast are in the morning. Model consensus keeps any precipitation
chances north of the forecast area. However, given the lower cloud
bases, frontogenesis, and isentropic lift, can`t rule out a small
chance for precipitation occurring. Model consensus data did show
the potential for freezing rain over the northeast part of the
forecast area during the morning. However, am thinking that is due
to different models in the consensus ending the precipitation at
different times, or not having any precipitation present as this was
not supported by soundings showing ice in the clouds and probability
of ice accumulations being zero.

Saturday night a cold front will move through the forecast area as
winds turn more to be from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

This part of the forecast continues to be similar to the short term;
numerous small scale upper level short wave troughs moving through
over the forecast area.  As each day nears there will likely be
additional short wave troughs appear in the northwest flow over the
forecast area that have not yet been resolved by the models.

Models continue to warm Tuesday`s high temperatures.  This is ahead
of a stronger upper level trough that will move through mid week.

The most pronounced upper level short wave trough for the week is
forecast to move through mid week.  The current track of this trough
keeps it mostly north of the forecast area.  Current model ensemble
forecasts for precipitation keep the precipitation north of the
forecast area.

Beyond midweek there begins to be more of a difference in the timing
of the upper level short wave troughs moving through the flow.
Toward the end of the workweek the upper level ridge that has been
over the West Coast strengthens further, pushing the jet stream
further to the northeast of the forecast area.  This should allow
for warmer, drier weather.  With a rather strong ridge dominating
the weather pattern, a strong low pressure system will be needed to
overcome the ridge.  Looking at long range model data, a strong
trough may not happen until the next week or two.  Until then the
weather pattern should change very little from what we have had.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1029 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Breezy winds will subside
around 22z. Toward 12z LLWS is forecast for KMCK as the low
level jet moves through ahead of a trough. Behind the trough
southerly winds will turn to the southwest then west. There may
be some light snow/rain occur after 12z for KMCK. At this time
confidence for any precipitation occurring is 20%. Confidence is
even lower the precipitation will lower conditions below VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL