046
FXUS63 KGLD 020606
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1206 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thursday morning may see some fog over the northeastern
  portions of the area.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast to continue into the
  start of the weekend with Friday looking to be the warmest day
  at this time with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Gusty to windy conditions are forecast to return Thursday
  afternoon through Saturday. Potential for elevated fire
  weather conditions Friday and Saturday. Some blowing dust may
  also occur Saturday with wind gusts of 40-50 mph; perhaps
  locally higher.

- Cooler closer to normal temperatures Sunday through the middle
  portion of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1206 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

As the upper level ridge pushes into the region, we generally
expected the mid and upper levels of the sky to remain clear.
However, we are expected some fog and stratus to form over the
northeastern CWA this morning. Red Willow county looks to get the
worst of it, and could see some isolated spots of dense fog,
impacting the morning commute. The fog is currently forecast to be
northeast of a line from Stratton, NE to Hoxie, KS and lift by 15Z.
Temperatures this morning will cool to around 50 for most of the
area; the southeastern CWA looks to remain in the mid 50s.

Today, the ridge axis will be sitting over us, leading to generally
weak winds and allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 80s
across most of the CWA. Precipitation is not expected for today.

Tonight, the ridge axis will be moving off to the east and
temperatures are forecast to cool into the mid 50s. We cannot rule
out the potential for additional patchy fog to form across the
northeastern CWA, but chances are lower Friday morning than Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Friday, the forecast begins to take a turn and become more active as
a western CONUS trough begins to deepen. Winds during the day Friday
will become breezy to gusty with wind gusts of 25-35 mph currently
forecast. The breeziest winds continue to favor eastern portions of
the area where guidance has continuously shown a stronger 700mb
jet streak where we should have no problem mixing into. A dry
line is also forecast to set up around the Highway 27 corridor
to the state line where humidity values are forecast to fall
into the mid to upper teens along high temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Still continuing to watch for the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions based on humidity
and wind gusts possibly approaching 35 mph at times. Further
east fire weather isn`t as much of a concern as humidity values
are currently forecast to be above 25%. This may change if the
if the dryline can push further to the east however.

Saturday, has potential to be the most impactful as the large trough
continues to push towards the area. An additional surface trough and
low is forecast to also develop across or near the area. As all of
this occurs our wind fields will also continue to strengthen.
Confidence in wind gusts above 40 mph is high. If the strength
of the jets continues as is currently progged in guidance the
potential for wind gusts around 50 mph will continue to increase
and also wouldn`t entirely be surprised if some isolated gusts
to 60 mph can occur as well. The other potential hazard for the
day may be blowing dust. With the strength of the wind field
and drying soil conditions which is already being seen via
NASASPORT 0-10cm soil moisture which is already dropping into
the low 20s to even locally upper teens in spots. The one aspect
that may lower to overall coverage of impacts if blowing dust
were to occur is that 2-2.5km lapse rates are fairly high which
would support dust being lofted further into the atmosphere
leading to more of a haze. With that being said still can`t rule
out some locations where visibility can significantly drop
especially near source regions. Elevated fire weather conditions
will still continue to be a concern but humidity is forecast to
be higher than Friday, so any fire weather concerns will come
from the magnitude of the wind itself.

The next part of the forecast is on a wind shift that is still
forecast to move through during the evening. Guidance including
ensembles have backed off cooler temperatures which can also be seen
in the NAEFS with a large spread of the 850mb temperatures; so am
perhaps thinking that it may be more of a prefrontal trough that
will cause this initial wind shift. It appears part of this is
due to the upper level trough ejecting to north quicker and
delaying the cold front a little bit. Showers and storms still
remain possible as well but the overall qpf outputs of ensemble
data has also trended down. Some severe storms are possible but
at this time am leaning towards damaging winds being the main
threat due weak CAPE around 500 j/kg but very steep lapse rates
in place along with even stronger winds of 50-60 knots in the
500mb flow which has the potential to be mixed down.

The main cold front is still forecast to move through during the day
on Sunday. Winds are still forecast to be a little breezy but as
windy as the previous days as we get more into the axis of the
trough. Depending on when the front moves through the area another
increase of winds may occur mainly with breezy sustained winds
around 20-25 mph. Near normal to perhaps slightly below normal
temperatures are then forecast to continue through the middle
portion of the week. Am continuing to see some signs of of
surface highs pushing into the area which if timed correctly
overnight would lead to optimal radiational cooling potential
with lower dew points which may result in some frost potential
towards the end of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025

The light and variable winds are expected to continue until
tomorrow afternoon when winds from the southeast will be
favored. We have a ridge building into the region, which will
generally keep the sky clear, expected for a few hours near
sunrise at KMCK. We are currently expecting IFR conditions from
around 1230-15Z, although conditions may start worsening closer
to 11Z. Expect fog and stratus to impact KMCK. KGLD looks to
remain VFR through the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...CA