176
FXUS63 KGLD 022327
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
427 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is forecast to develop over mainly western portions
  of the area overnight tonight, lasting into Wednesday night.
  Most of the snow accumulation is expected over Eastern
  Colorado and potentially as far east as the Hwy 27 corridor.

- Patchy blowing snow midday Wednesday in eastern Colorado may
  lead to minor/nuisance travel impacts.

- Wind chills Thursday are forecast to be in the single digits
  to low teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 134 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Over the next few hours, the surface low over Southeast
Colorado into the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. As the low
slides east, mid and low level moisture and cooler air will push
south over the Tri-State area during the late evening to
overnight hours and merge with the moisture pushing east across
the Colorado Rockies. Along with the increase in moisture, we
are also looking at an area of vorticity at the 500-700 mb level
primarily along and west of the Colorado border which will
provide forcing and the potential for flurries and light snow
through Wednesday night. There is also a cold front moving south
providing additional frontogenesis after sunrise tomorrow.

We could see flurries as early as 5-6 pm MT in Western portions
of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado with light snow
moving in between 8-10 pm MT off of the Palmer Divide. Majority
of the measurable snow is expected to be in Colorado and the
neighboring Kansas and Nebraska counties. Flurries are possible
across the area given the decent moisture profile. The peak for
snowfall is currently expected to be during the day tomorrow
with snow tapering off from north to south by 12 am MT (Midnight
MT) Wednesday night. The latest forecast has snow amounts up to
2-3" in western portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne (CO)
counties with the remainder of those counties and the
surrounding ones looking at a trace to 1". There is a chance
that most of the snow falls west of our area over the Palmer
Divide and along the Front Range, resulting in amounts of an 1"
or less for western portions of the area. The western halves of
Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado have a 50-60%
chance of seeing an inch of snow or more. There is only a ~40%
chance of localized accumulations of an inch east of the
Colorado border, and the potential rapidly declines farther
east. This snow is expected to be powdery with snow to liquid
ratios of 12-16:1. Some blowing snow is possible late Wednesday
morning to afternoon, but is not expected to be much more than a
nuisance due to the north to northeast winds of 10-15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph.

Temperatures tonight are expected to be in the 20s thanks to
the cold air moving in overnight. With the area-wide overcast
skies and falling snow for those out west, temperatures are not
expected to warm up much for highs on Wednesday with
temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Overnight lows could fall
into the teens Wednesday night with potential for wind chills
Thursday morning to be in the single digits to low teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Overview: A pronounced omega block (the center/ridge of which
will be anchored over the eastern Pacific) will hold sway /
dominate the synoptic pattern over the western half of the CONUS
late this week through early next week, fostering a prolonged
period of WNW-NW flow aloft over the Rockies and High Plains..
while a deep cyclonic gyre/vortex in eastern Canada (centered in
vicinity of Hudson Bay) maintains troughing / cyclonic flow
aloft over the eastern CONUS.

Below average forecast confidence. Long range guidance suggests
that episodic shortwaves rounding the northern periphery of the
ridge in the eastern Pacific will traverse the Northern and
Central Plains in NW-WNW flow aloft late this week through early
next week. Forecast uncertainty in this period largely stems
from potential interactions between shortwave energy rounding
the northern periphery of the eastern Pacific ridge and
shortwave energy rounding the west and southwest periphery of
the cyclonic gyre in Canada. Broadly speaking, in such a
pattern, one would expect unsettled weather (periodically, at
least). 12Z 12/02 operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF suggest dry
conditions.. with occasional precipitation confined to the
Rockies and/or Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail this evening and most of
tonight. MVFR ceilings will rapidly develop after a cold frontal
passage shortly before sunrise (~12Z) Wed. IFR ceilings and
light snow are possible after the frontal passage, during the
mid-late morning to early afternoon. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings
are likely to persist through the remainder of the 00Z TAF
period. Light/variable winds will prevail this evening and most
of tonight. Winds will shift to the N and increase to 12-17
knots during the cold frontal passage (~12Z Wed) with gusts to
~25 knots possible through mid-late morning. Winds will
gradually veer to the NE and ENE during the afternoon.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail this evening and most of
tonight. MVFR ceilings will rapidly develop after a cold frontal
passage ~10Z Wed morning. MVFR ceilings are expected to persist
into the afternoon.. eventually lifting to VFR (~3,500 ft AGL)
by the end of the 00Z TAF period. Light/variable winds will
prevail this evening and most of tonight. Winds will shift to
the N and increase to ~14-18 knots during the cold frontal
passage (~10Z Wed) and persist through early afternoon. Winds
will veer to the NE and decrease to 8-12 knots during the late
afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent