668
FXUS63 KGLD 040515
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1015 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow through mid evening. Most of the snow accumulation
  is expected over Eastern Colorado.

- Fog may form in East Central CO tonight.

- Wind chills Thursday morning are forecast to be in the single
  digits to low teens.

- Very low chances for snow Saturday in Yuma County, but
  otherwise dry through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Latest model data shows lift and weak frontogenesis are
occurring where the light snow is persisting longer than
thought. The data indicates the snow should end toward midnight
as the lift and frontogenesis end. Little to no snow
accumulation is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Well the low end snow forecast scenario seems to be the one that
panned out for this system, with majority of the system staying
west. As the system continues east, we could see the occasional
flurries through sunset, but for the most part the area will likely
remain snow free this afternoon. A surface high over Eastern
Colorado will push south this evening and into the overnight hours,
helping to gradually clear skies Thursday morning. The low level
moisture will stick around through mid-day Thursday as the upper
level trough axis swings across the Central Plains. With the
lingering moisture and light winds out of the south, freezing fog
may be possible tonight. It`s also possible that temperatures are
too cold with overnight lows in the teens across the Tri-State area.
Wind chills will fall after midnight to shortly after sunrise into
the low teens and single digits.

As the upper trough continues to swing across the Central Plains
Thursday, dry conditions are expected with clear to mostly clear
skies starting after midday. Temperatures should be a bit warmer as
well with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Overnight lows tomorrow
night will be in the teens to low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Northwest upper level flow will dominate the weather pattern for
this portion of the forecast.  Models agree rather well with the
weather pattern through Wednesday.  Temperatures will be near to
almost ten degrees above normal.

Models have an upper level short wave trough moving through the High
Plains Saturday.  There may be some low chances for snow in Yuma
County that day.  However, despite the minor upper level short wave
trough moving through, am doubtful this will become reality due to
the majority of the snow chances being well north of the forecast
area.  In addition soundings show a rather large dew point
depression below the cloud base of roughly 15k ft AGL.

Aside from this short wave trough passage, there will be frequent
minor upper level trough passages through the northwest flow over
the Plains; the more notable ones will be on Monday and Wednesday.
Soundings show rather large dew point depressions present on these
days when the short wave troughs move through. Unless this changes,
do not expect there to be much more than clouds accompanying the
troughs through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1009 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Light snow continues across the GLD terminal and is forecast to
continue through around 09Z; also can`t rule out periods of
freezing drizzle so remain aware for some light icing. Also
watching for some fog potential for GLD as well but the threat
should lessen around 09-10Z as winds turn more southwesterly.
There is a 10% chance of visibility dropping below 1/2SM but if
it does remain aware for freezing fog. MCK is forecast to remain
in stratus dropping to IFR through the early morning hours
before improving Thursday morning. Did have a report earlier of
some light freezing drizzle west of MCK but current thinking is
that this threat has ended as we lose forcing. Breezy winds
gusting 20-25 knots are forecast through the day Thursday.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...Trigg