286
FXUS63 KGLD 101854
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1154 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue.

- Temperatures a bit up and down: cooler today, warmer again on
  Thursday, then cooling on Friday.

- Fog and freezing fog possible Friday/Saturday morning, but
  confidence is medium at best.

- Mild temperatures in the 50s to 60s return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Northwest flow continues through the short term period due to a
blocking ridge parked off the western CONUS. Precipitation
chances remain confined to the northern plains where the upper
jet is most active while the local area remains dry. Do not
anticipate any wind or fire weather concerns through the period.
Temperatures will be a bit up and down. It will be around 20
degrees colder today compared to yesterday in the wake of a cold
frontal passage earlier this evening. Highs will be in the upper
40s. Westerly winds return tonight and Thursday with lows in the
30s and high temperatures on Thursday bouncing back to the
upper 60s and lower 70s. Another cold front slides through
Thursday night with temperatures on Friday ranging from the
middle 40s in eastern areas to the middle 50s in Colorado.
Forecast soundings do show low level clouds and saturation along
the leading edge of the front Friday morning with northeasterly
winds, a favorable set up for fog, and with lows currently
forecast to be around 30 it could be freezing fog. Still a
couple of days out so confidence is medium at best, especially
regarding frontal timing and position Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Friday night and into Saturday morning, the area is forecast to be
under northwest flow aloft with winds from the southeast near the
surface. This is forecast to keep some low level moisture over the
area. With temperatures forecast to lower into the 20s and 30s due
to the cold air mass in place, freezing fog and drizzle remains a
concern. The saving grace is that low pressure is forecast to
develop along the Front Range and may shift winds to be more
south/southwesterly and keep the moisture out of the area. So we
have nothing in the forecast for now, but do be cautious if you are
traveling late Friday and into early Saturday.

For the rest of the weekend, an upper trough is forecast to dig into
the Plains and the Ohio River Valley. The ensemble means and
deterministic guidance favors the trough moving more into the
Eastern Plains, which would bring the cooler air mass through the
far eastern portions of the area. This could cause these areas to
see highs in the 30s, while the rest of the area to the west is in
the 40s and 50s. However, ensemble spreads still show the
possibility of a the trough digging further west and south. In this
case, the entire area would see highs in the 30s and maybe low 40s.
Precipitation chances are low due to an overall lack of saturation.
However, fog and drizzle chances could linger if the surface low
along the Front Range persists and keeps the southeasterly flow.
Lows are forecast to be in the teens and 20s.

Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be a bit warmer as upper
ridging or split flow are forecast for the area. Within that, some
small waves may allow for some weak fronts to move through and
increase winds a bit. Gusts around 20-30 mph are possible, but
nothing hazardous at this time. Will need to watch for some briefly
critical fire weather conditions as drier air is forecast to take
hold of the area along with warmer temperatures in the 50s and 60s.
A few 70s may be possible on Tuesday depending on how the smaller
disturbances move through. With the drier air, precipitation is
unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1017 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds
for KGLD will briefly pick up around 22-00Z this afternoon, but
are expected to be isolated gusts. Overnight tonight, after the
inversion sets up, LLWS will be possible from the northwest at
30-50 kts around 500-1,000 feet AGL. Confidence in LLWS
criteria being met is about 20%.

Tomorrow, around the end of the TAF period, winds from the
northwest will rapidly speed up and gusts above 20 kts are
expected tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA