591
FXUS63 KGLD 081053
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
353 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong sustained winds of 30-45 mph along with wind gusts of
  45-55 mph and isolated gusts around 60 mph are forecast today.
  These winds may lead to some blowing dust this afternoon.
  Widespread dust issues are not anticipated but more of a haze
  is most likely resulting in poor air quality.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast today.
  Additional fire weather chances are forecast Tuesday and
  Friday.

- Chances for precipitation remain below 10% for much of the
  next 7 days.

- Mild conditions forecast for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 106 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

A surface low traversing across southern Nebraska is leading to
mainly virga and maybe a few sprinkles across northern portions
of the area. The main focus is on a strong cold front moving
towards the area which is forecast to be across the CWA by 10Z
or so. Strong pressure rises is forecast with it leading to wind
gusts of 30-40 mph with the passage. Winds are forecast to
continue through the day and increase as well as the 850 and
700mb wind fields increase and pressure rises remain around
2-3mb over 3 hours keeping the mixing ongoing. Current forecast
expectations remain for wind gusts around 45-55 mph with some
isolated instances of 58 mph or higher wind gusts mainly across
southwest Nebraska where mixing is a little deeper and the wind
field is stronger. Confidence in a 58mph or stronger wind gust
is around 50-60% but should remain spotty and infrequent in
nature which is the reasoning for holding off on a high wind
product this shift. The main story for the day may be the
sustained winds as they are forecast to be 30-40 mph leading to
little relief from the wind. RAP, GFS and HRRR soundings all
show 35- 40 knot winds starting around 850mb which with the
given continuous mixing due to cold air advection should be
fairly easy to mix down. There is potential for some spotty high
wind warning criteria being met with the sustained wind aspect
of things but confidence in that is currently around 50-60% as
well.

The next potential hazard for the day is the potential for
fire spread from the wind. Humidity values are forecast to
remain above 20% across the area resulting in elevated
conditions but with the recent dryness and curing of fuels use
extra caution with any activities that involves sparks or
flames and ensure that any prior burning is fully extinguished.
Patchy blowing dust still remains possible across the area with
the relative higher potential being along and north of
Interstate 70. 2-2.5 km lapse rates have come down a little bit
from what was seen yesterday but mixing heights still remain
around 6000 feet which continues to lead me to believe that
mainly a haze will be the most common issue from dust resulting
in air quality reductions. If the lower lapse rates do come to
fruition there may be an increased chance that a longer lived
plume or two of dust may develop but confidence  in that
continues to be around 20-25% with the haze most likely.

Cold air advection is forecast to continue through the night but
winds will gradually be on the decrease as pressure rises begins to
equal out as low temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s across
the area.  RAP and NAM cross sections indicate some low level
moisture between 850 and 700mb developing Sunday morning along
with weak omega around 1 microbars. The omega is in the lower
portions of the dendritic growth zone which may be enough for
some flurries to develop across northeast portions of the
forecast area. Soundings show dew point depressions around 5-8
degrees however near the surface. NAMNest is a little more moist
(as usual) with dew point depressions only around 1-3 degrees
which if does end up being the case then perhaps the little bit
amount of omega may lead to some freezing drizzle potential.
Confidence in flurries occurring is around 20-30% versus the
potential for freezing drizzle around 5%.

Sunday, continues to be forecast as a cool fall day with the cold
airmass remaining in place across the area. Some guidance is
trending towards the cloud cover leading the flurry potential
linger through the majority of the day which would end up
leading to cooler temperatures. Have again brought high
temperatures down a few degrees due to this and the fact that
these air masses are more shallow and cooler than what guidance
suggests. Winds are forecast to become breezy again around 15
mph sustained leading to wind chills potentially remaining below
freezing for the duration of the day. Sunday night and into
Monday continues to have the potential to the coldest night of
the season thus far as low temperatures fall into the teens to
low 20s. The coldest is forecast across the east as a
downlsoping effect is forecast to begin to occur across the west
which actually may make temperatures increase through the
night. The timing of when this occurs will dictate overall how
low temperatures do fall. For the east if winds can lighten up
enough and along with clear skies and single digit dew points
would not be surprised if a location or two falls in to the
upper single digits for lows.

Monday, a surface trough is forecast to push in from the
northwest quickly warming temperatures especially across the
west and the downsloping effect enhances. High temperatures
across western portions of the area are currently forecast to
rise in to the low to mid 60s. Synoptically northwest flow is
forecast to continue keeping the dry conditions in place to
start the work week again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

We`ll start off the long-term with a large low pressure system over
the eastern CONUS and a high over the western CONUS. This will put
the CWA under northwesterly flow for the bulk of the period. Dry
conditions are forecast to dominate, but we could see some weak
showers scattered throughout the long-term.

High throughout the long-term will warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Friday looks to be the warmest, with mid 70s forecast throughout
most of the CWA. Low temperatures are a lot more stable. Lows in the
30s will be common throughout the region through the long-term, save
for Friday night, when temperatures may remain in the mid 40s for
the southeastern half of the CWA.

RH values will generally bottom out in the upper teens to low 20s in
eastern Colorado with the rest of the CWA being more moist. Tuesday
and Friday are the potential exceptions. RH values are already
forecast to drop into the mid teens. Combined with northwesterly
winds gusting around 20-25 kts, there is concern for critical fire
weather conditions. Current confidence in Red Flag Warning criteria
being met is around 10-20%.

Over next weekend, we are keeping a close eye on the potential for a
far more active patten to move in. A shortwave trough may move
through the area Friday night, leading to some light precipitation,
mainly in the northwestern CWA. Guidance is also showing a large low
impacting the area somewhere in the Sunday to Tuesday (Nov 16-18)
range, which could bring impactful precipitation. Due to it being so
far out, additional actionable information is not available.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

Cold front has moved through each terminal leading to breezy
winds. Winds have been a bit more sporadic at GLD thus far so
have included LLWS as the VAD wind profiler shows around 50
knots of wind around 1500 feet. If the gusts can become a bit
more consistent then LLWS won`t be a problem. Opposite for MCK
if the winds become less consistent then LLWS is possible. Winds
are forecast to strengthen through the day with sustained winds
of 30-35 knots and gusts of 40-45 knots, strongest at MCK.
Blowing dust is possible after 18Z which may lead to a hazy
ceiling or even some localized reductions in visibility.
Confidence isn`t high enough for direct impacts to either
terminal so left out of the TAF for now. Winds will then slowly
wane after sunset. Guidance has been showing some stratus
potential around the MCK terminal towards the latter part of the
period. Confidence isn`t quite there for flight category
reductions but will need to be watched.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 106 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions remain forecast today for
essentially the entire forecast area. Current thinking is that
sustained winds of 30-45 mph perhaps locally stronger will occur
along with wind gust potential of 45-55 mph and perhaps sporadic
bouts of 58+ mph winds will increase after 11am MT and last through
around 5pm MT. The strongest of the winds at this time appears to be
across southwestern Nebraska. The limiting factor for critical
conditions is that humidity values are currently forecast in the low
20s despite drier air advecting in from the north as temperatures
are forecast to remain in the low 50s. With this said, no fire
weather product will be issued for this forecast package. Do have
concern for fire spread should one start however due to the winds as
GFDI (Grassland Fire Danger Index) is forecast to be in the extreme
range across Yuma, Cheyenne (KS), Rawlins, Dundy , Hitchcock and Red
Willow counties with very high GFDI values elsewhere. This along
with curing or cured fuels across the area from the freezes over the
past few weeks is what is leading to the concern for the fire
spread. Lapse rates are also forecast to be unstable around 8.5 c/km
which would also lead to the potential for a fire to intensify if
one were to develop as well. If doing any activities Saturday that
involves sparks or flames use extra caution especially those
who may be out for the start of hunting season today. Also
ensure that any previous burning is fully extinguished.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg