655
FXUS63 KGLD 071717
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1017 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild conditions today before much cooler temperatures
  this weekend.

- On Saturday, strong northerly winds may create hazardous
  travel conditions for high-profile vehicles, especially on
  east-to-west routes, such as Interstate 70, where cross winds
  will be strongest.

- The wind will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across
  the area along with patches of blowing dust reducing air
  quality and localized visibility reductions.

- Chances for precipitation remain below 10% for much of the
  next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 106 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Weak surface troughing is moving into the area currently
leading to some mixing to the surface of a low level jet with
wind gusts of 20- 30 mph forecast through around sunrise before
waning as the pressure gradient wanes. An overall "cooler" air
mass is forecast to be in place along with clear skies for the
majority of the day as temperatures are forecast to be in the
60s across the area. A surface high is forecast to move across
southern portions of the area leading to shifting winds to the
southwest which is forecast to impose some downsloping effects
to help warm the area up a few degrees more. The only caveat to
this is some mid to high level clouds are forecast to develop
during the afternoon from the northwest which may mitigate how
much we warm. The west-southwest winds are forecast to continue
through the night which will help keep temperatures from
plummeting too much. The main focus will be on a cold front
which is forecast to move through the area between 9- 12Z with
pressure rises of 4-7mb over 3 hours leading to gusty winds of
35-50 mph and falling temperatures.

Saturday, gusty to strong winds are forecast to continue throughout
the day as cold air advection continues to increase across the area.
Forecast soundings suggest to me that sustained winds of 30-35 mph
are forecast to occur with gusts of 45-60 mph especially during
the afternoon as another stronger cold front moves in from the
north and pressure rises again occurs. At this time not
anticipating widespread or prolonged wind gusts of 58 mph or
higher so will opt to not issue any high wind products. Fire
spread may be a concern as well as elevated fire weather
conditions are forecast for nearly the entire area. The weather
condition that is holding back from critical conditions across
the area is the cooler temperatures in the 50s keeping humidity
values in the upper teens to mid 20s despite much drier air
infiltrating into the CWA. Blowing dust may also be a
possibility as well but at this time not anticipating any
widespread blowing dust concerns as winds are a little weaker
than what I would like to see for widespread concerns and mixing
heights remaining around 6000-7000 feet should help any dust
loft into the atmosphere leading to more of a haze. I do think
there will be some localized blowing dust especially next to
open fields as the entire area has been dry for the past several
weeks and with the warmer temperatures the top layer of soil
should be able to blow in spots. I did add in patchy blowing
dust into the forecast across northeast portions of the area
where I`m currently anticipating the strongest winds to be
during the afternoon in closer proximity to the pressure rises.

Strong cold air advection will continue to filter into the area
Saturday night and into Sunday as low temperatures are forecast to
fall into the 20s across the entire area. In the evening RAP cross
section analysis shows some surface omega around 5 microbars,
the low levels aren`t fully saturated however but perhaps some
flurries may be able to materialize if this does come to
fruition. A chilly fall day is forecast to ensue on Sunday as
cold airmass characterized by 850mb temperatures of -2 to +2C
is forecast to be across the area. Some additional flurries or
even light snow showers may be possible from 09Z-18Z across the
area as some 700- 500mb moisture moves across along with the 00Z
NAM indicating 5-15 j/kg of CAPE to further aid in this. I did
bring high temperatures down a little more as these cold air
masses are normally more shallow and not sampled well by
guidance. High temperatures across the area are forecast in to
the low to mid 40s for highs. Sunday night into Monday morning
will be the coldest night of the season by far as winds are
forecast to lighten to around 10 mph as temperatures are
forecast to fall into the teens even possibly into the single
digits across the east in closer proximity to the coldest air.
Be sure to bundle up for the start of the new work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

We`ll start off the long-term with a hefty low pressure system
exiting to the east. This will put the CWA under north-northwesterly
flow that will gradually become more zonal as the week progresses.
Dry conditions are forecast to dominate, but we could see some weak
showers scattered throughout the long-term.

Monday will be the coolest day as temperatures rebound from the
massive cold front over the weekend. Highs will top out in the low
50s in the eastern CWA and reach the low 60s in the western CWA. The
rest of the long-term will warm into the mid 60s to low 70s. Low
temperatures are a lot more stable. Lows in the 30s will be common
throughout the region through the long-term.

RH values will generally bottom out in the upper teens to low 20s in
eastern Colorado with the rest of the CWA being more moist. Tuesday
is the potential exception. RH values are already forecast to drop
into the mid teens. Combined with northwesterly winds gusting around
20-25 kts, there is concern for critical fire weather conditions.
Current confidence in Red Flag Warning criteria being met is around
15-20%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1010 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period with either clear skies or clouds generally above
10000ft. There is a 10% chance for a sprinkle or two to move
through tonight as the front passes through the area.

Winds are forecast to shift from out of the north/northwest to
southwest today as low pressure develops in the High Plains.
Speeds should generally be around 10-15 kts. When the front
passes around 06-09Z, winds should rapidly shift back to out of
the northwest with speeds near 20 kts and gusts around 25-35
kts. There could also be some brief low level wind shear ahead
of the front, with winds shifting to out of the northwest at 40
kts before the surface winds shift. Tomorrow morning should see
winds increase through the morning with speeds around 25-30 kts
and wind gusts nearing 40 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 AM MST Fri Nov 7 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are currently forecast Saturday
for essentially the entire forecast area as gusty to strong
winds are forecast to occur in wake of a cold front. Current
thinking is that sustained winds of 25-30 mph perhaps locally
stronger will occur. Wind gust potential of 45-55 mph and
perhaps sporadic bouts of 58+ mph winds will increase after 11am
MT and last through around 5pm MT. The limiting factor for
critical conditions is that humidity values are currently
forecast in the low 20s despite drier air advecting in from the
north as temperatures are forecast to remain in the low 50s.
With this said, no fire weather product is anticipated at this
time. Do have concern for fire spread should one start however
due to the winds as GFDI (Grassland Fire Danger Index) is
forecast in the low 30s to mid 70s across the area. This along
with curing or cured fuels across the area from the freezes over
the past few weeks is what is leading to the concern for the
fire spread. Lapse rates are also forecast to be unstable around
8.5 c/km which would also lead to the potential for a fire to
intensify if one were to develop as well. If doing any
activities Saturday that involves sparks or flames use extra
caution.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg