216
FXUS63 KGLD 060457
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1057 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Cooler (albeit closer to normal) temperatures are expected on
  Monday, with highs in the low 50s.

- Dense fog could develop over portions of the area Monday night
  (if cloud cover thins-out). If cloud cover thins-out and fog
  does not develop, some potential for frost may exist over
  northern portions of the area Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Cold front continues to push slowly to the southeast across the
forecast area. A wide range of high temperatures is in store
for the day in wake of the front with highs in the mid 60s
across Yuma county to the low 80s across the southeast portion
of the area. Focus for the afternoon will be the progression of
this front. Showers and storms are forecast to develop along the
front during the afternoon as convective temperatures are
breached as well. If storms were to form in our forecast area
the favored location appears to be roughly along and east of a
Hill City to Monument Rocks line. Most guidance has the front
clearing the area before storms can form, but there still
remains some that does have storm in the area mentioned above.
Confidence in storms occurring along the front in our area is
around 30-40% currently; have tailored the forecast towards the
12ZNamNest as it was handling the current position of the front
the best. It was convecting storms in the forecast area as well.
If storms were to form large hail to ping pong ball would be
the main threat especially initially or with any stronger
updraft. Guidance suggests that quite a few storms should
develop along the front which may ultimately end up limiting the
hail threat due to numerous competing updrafts. Damaging winds
in the form of wet microbursts would be the next hazard as a
fairly stout jet still remains in place along with increasing
PWATS to around 1.5 inches. Due to the slow nature of the front
along with breezy winds on each side of the front leading to
additional convergence areas would not be overly surprised if a
landspout or two were to develop; the limiting factor is that
lapse rates are a little on the lower side for landspout
formation but would be something to keep an eye on. If the front
again were to set up in the area some localized hydro concerns
may be able to form due to the slow moving nature of the front,
Corfidi vectors are very quick so any storm would not be over a
single area for a long period of time and storms would
essentially be tied to the front which is forecast to gradually
move to the southeast.

Overnight, a stronger cold front is again to move into the area
associated with low pressure over the northern Plains.
Confidence is increasing in showers and weak storms across
mainly northern portions of the area overnight as upslope
component of the wind would support some additional isentropic
ascent as well. Showers are most likely to occur but some
increase in weak elevated CAPE may yield some isolated rumbles
of thunder. Despite the cold air advection did nudge up
overnight lows a few degrees due to anticipated increase in
cloud cover as low stratus moves into the area from the north.

Monday, cold air advection continues to stream in with cloud
cover remaining in place over the majority of the day. Am seeing
some weak omega in the low levels throughout the morning hours
which may lead to some spotty showers or even drizzle as dry air
is forecast to be in place aloft. High temperatures will be the
main challenge for the day as a much cooler air mass ranging
from 4-8C 850mb temperatures lies in place across the area.
Current forecast has highs in the low to mid 50s across the
area, but may be a struggle to get out of the 40s if cloud cover
can remain thick. Another round of showers and isolated storms
is forecast to occur mainly across southern portions of the area
Monday night and into the morning hours Tuesday. Monday night
across northern portions of the area a surface high is forecast
to push into the area leading to light and variable winds. If
clouds are able to break then this would set up strong
radiational cooling setup as dew points potentially falling into
the mid 30s which would support frost potential. Due to lower
confidence in clouds breaking at this time will preclude any
frost mention in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Surface high remains in place to start the extended period on
Tuesday leading to tranquil conditions across the area as
seasonal temperatures continue currently forecast in the low
60s. Mid week ridging across the southern Plains amplifies
leading to another round of above normal temperatures with highs
in the 80s. Some breezier winds may develop with a surface
trough mid week which may bring some fire weather concerns but
at this time no significant concerns.

Latter portion of the week and into next weekend GFS and ECMWF
both show another large trough developing across western
portions of the CONUS which may lead to another active pattern
for the area. The pattern looks to be similar to what occurred
yesterday with a slightly further south surface low. Wind and
perhaps some fire weather at this time would perhaps be the main
threats but exact details are murky at this range but the
pattern needs to be monitored through the next few days for
further trends.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

GLD: ~10-17 knot NE winds will prevail throughout the TAF
period. VFR conditions this evening will deteriorate to MVFR
(overnight) and IFR (early Monday morning) as stratus develops
over the region. Elevated showers (perhaps a storm) are possible
over portions of northeast CO and northwest KS between midnight
and sunrise (~06-12Z Mon).. mainly north of the Goodland
terminal (near the CO-KS-NE border). While some improvement (to
MVFR) is expected late this morning into this afternoon, low
overcast will likely persist through the remainder of the TAF
period.

MCK: 8-15 knot NNE-NE winds will prevail throughout the TAF
period. VFR conditions this evening will deteriorate to MVFR
overnight as stratus develops over the region. IFR conditions
are possible a few hours on either side of sunrise.. when
elevated showers (perhaps a storm) may develop over northwest KS
and southwest NE. While some improvement is possible during the
afternoon.. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent