731
FXUS63 KGLD 110802
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
102 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry forecast through the week until next weekend.

- Gradual warming temperature trend through the work week. Near
  record to record highs possible Thursday and Friday.

- Low relative humidity Tuesday and Friday with breezy winds
  leading to some fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1251 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Cirrus is ongoing across most of the area along with southwesterly
winds helping keep the forecast area above freezing to well
above freezing across the west as a tightening pressure gradient
ahead of a shortwave is keeping winds breezier and temperatures
in the 40s. As this shortwave moves through the 850mb wind
field will increase but we likely won`t notice any evidence of
this until the nocturnal inversion breaks between 9-10pm MT. As
this occurs winds will rapidly increase to 20-30 mph sustained
gusting 40-45 mph for 1-2 hours before waning during the early
afternoon hours. There does continue to remain some variables
for the afternoon however which will be key to our fire weather
threat for the day. 1) The big one is how long will the wind
gusts last. Most guidance has the winds decreasing during the
afternoon as the 850mb jet decreases behind the shortwave. The
exception is the GFS which keeps the jet lingering for an
additional 1-2 hours which would increase the chances for
southwestern portions of the area to see 3+ hours of critical
fire weather conditions. All other guidance including the mean
ensembles of the GEFS, REFS and HREF all show the wind gust
potential declining after 1pm MT. 2) The other factor is how
warm will temperatures get. Northwest winds which is what will
occur with the shortwave actually do lead to a downsloping
warming component, based on some in office climatological
studies, to the area which has led me to keep temperatures on
the warmer end of guidance in the low to mid 70s. However,
cirrus is forecast to linger through the day and may actually
mitigate how warm temperatures get which would have an effect on
the humidity values and actually increase them some. Dew points
are also forecast to rise through the afternoon as well as
upstream moisture from the northern Rockies gets caught in the
northwest flow in wake of the shortwave. With all of this said
am opting to hold off on any Red Flag Warnings for the day due
to lack of confidence in 3+ hours (20-30%) of critical fire
weather conditions.

Above normal temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s are forecast
to continue into Wednesday as ridging amplifies across the western
CONUS. Winds have increased some as the 850mb jet has
strengthened across the area due to a developing surface
trough. Humidity values are however forecast to remain above
20% keeping fire weather conditions at bay. Upper level cirrus
is forecast to continue to stream into the area as some moisture
gets caught aloft in the northwesterly flow from the Pacific
northwest.

The axis of the ridge is forecast to be across the area Thursday as
we will be in between weather systems. Due to the axis of the ridge
being over the area winds are forecast to be lighter and more
variable through the day with mainly sunny skies although some
mountain cirrus may move across the are during the afternoon hours.
High temperatures are forecast to be solidly in the low to mid
70s across the area as well with near record highs possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

An upper low will deepen over southern California on Friday with
downstream ridging over the plains resulting in another mild and
dry day. As temperatures climb well into the 70s, afternoon
relative humidity minimums fall into the teens. In addition,
a deepening surface trough in Colorado will increase the
pressure gradient and southeast winds currently have a high
probability (greater than 70%) of gusting over 25 mph. This
combination of low humidity and gusty winds may result in
critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon, especially in
Colorado where winds are strongest. Cold front then moves
through Friday night and Saturday with temperatures closer to
normal behind it. Isolated showers are possible on Saturday as
northern stream shortwave brushes the area and the front moves
through, but confidence is low in precipitation chances. Highs
on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s and lows Saturday night
in the 20s and 30s. Better chances for precipitation will begin
on Sunday as the upper low approaches the Texas panhandle and
the associated precipitation shield overspreads southwest Kansas
and perhaps northwest Kansas, with areas south of Interstate 70
seeing the relative best chances. Precipitation chances may
linger into Monday depending on the track of the upper low. If
it stays further south, as suggested by the ECMWF, little to no
precipitation may occur, but a track slightly further north, as
suggested by the GFS, would result in better chances. Finally,
can`t completely rule out a rain/snow mix in northeast Colorado
Saturday or Sunday where wet bulb zero heights are lower, but
not expecting any accumulation based on recent warmth. Highs on
Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s and lows mainly in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 949 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

High clouds remain across the area but VFR conditions are
forecast to continue for this TAF period. I did put in LLWS as
the GLD VAD shows 35-40 knot winds just around 1000 feet.
Included a tempo for GLD as some sporadic gusts of 20-25 knots
have been observed over the past few hours but think these
should wane as a shortwave nears the area starting around 07-08Z.
As the shortwave moves over the area winds are forecast to turn
to the NW leading to more LLWS especially for GLD. As the
nocturnal inversion wanes around 1530-16Z winds are forecast to
increase at GLD gusting 30-35 knots with sustained winds around
20 knots. Winds are forecast to slowly wane through the
afternoon. The stronger wind field is forecast to remain to the
west of MCK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1251 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

A shortwave moving in from the northwest will be the catalyst for a
period of breezy to gusty winds as the nocturnal inversion breaks
this morning around 9-10am MT. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph and
wind gusts around 40 mph are forecast through 12p-1pm MT for
portions of Sherman, Kit Carson, Wallace, Cheyenne (CO), Greeley
and Wichita counties. Humidity is forecast to fall as well into
the mid/upper teens to low 20s as a period of elevated to
briefly critical fire weather conditions ensues between
10am-1pm MT. The tricky part of this forecast is how long will
the wind gusts of 25 mph continue as winds are forecast to
weaken as the day goes on along with rising dew points through
the afternoon. Confidence in 1- 2 hours of critical conditions
is around 50-60% with 3+ hours around 20-30% with the highest
potential being western Kit Carson, Cheyenne (CO), Wallace and
Greeley counties. An opting to hold off on a Red Flag Warning
due to the continued low confidence in the time portion of the
Red Flag Warning criteria. Use caution with any activity that
involves sparks this morning and early afternoon as 10 hour
fuels remain near 10% according to the Kansas Mesonet. GFDI
(Grassland Fire Danger Index) values are also forecast to be in
the Very High range supporting the potential for some fire
spread if one were to start.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1251 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Near record to record highs are possible Thursday November 13th
and Friday November 14th. Below shows the record highs and
current forecasted highs for our four ASOS sites across the
area.

Thursday November 13th

Goodland: Record high of 80 set in 2007..... current forecast 75 degrees

Burlington: Record high of 79 set in 2007....current forecast 75 degrees

Hill City: Record high of 83 set in 1999.... current forecast 71 degrees

McCook: Record high of 82 set in 1999.... current forecast of 71 degrees


Friday November 14th

Goodland: Record high of 75 set in 1990..... current forecast 75 degrees

Burlington: Record high of 78 set in 2007....current forecast 74 degrees

Hill City: Record high of 83 set in 1999.... current forecast 72 degrees

McCook: Record high of 78 set in 1990.... current forecast of 71 degrees


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg
CLIMATE...Trigg