834
FXUS63 KGRB 081131
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
531 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A clipper system is expected to bring a swath of 1 to 3 inches
  of snow along and north of a line from Wausau to Green Bay to
  Manitowoc tonight. Lesser amounts are expected farther south.

- A more potent clipper system is expected to bring another round
  of snow to the area late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
  morning. This system is expected to produce 3-7 inches of snow
  over much of the forecast area. There is still some uncertainty
  in where the axis of heaviest snow will set up. A Winter Storm
  Watch has been issued for portions of the area from late Tuesday
  afternoon and evening into Wednesday morning.

- Temperatures will moderate some by the middle of the week, then
  turn colder again late in the week. Wind chills of -10 to -30
  are possible Friday night into early Saturday and again Saturday
  night into Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Tuesday

High pressure will push off to the east today, which will allow
winds to turn southerly as a clipper system approaches from the
west. Models suggest low clouds will develop in the late morning,
and there may be just enough saturation depth for some flurries
by afternoon. CAMs show that a north to south oriented lake-effect
band should stay out over Lake Michigan, though a few flurries
could impact the shoreline. The low pressure system will impact
the region tonight, and should bring a swath of 1 to 3 inches of
snow north of a Wausau to Green Bay to Manitowoc line. Recent
model runs have bumped up snow totals a few tenths of an inch
from previous runs. Gusty winds are expected across the region
tonight, with the potential for a few gale force gusts across the
nearshore areas, especially north of Sturgeon Bay.

Snow will taper off Tuesday morning from the first clipper system,
with a few hours of respite before the next clipper system
approaches fast on its heels, bringing another swath of snow to
the area Tuesday afternoon. The best moisture and dynamics will
not quite be in the area by Tuesday afternoon, with snowfall
amounts expected to mainly be below an inch during this period.

Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

The main focus for this period will be the clipper system expected
to bring an impactful snowfall to the region late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning, then the passage of an arctic
cold front that will bring bitter cold wind chills Friday into
next week.

For Tuesday night, potent clipper system expected to bring a swath
of moderate to heavy snow across portions of the area. A widespread
swath of 3-7 inches of snow is expected, however there is still
uncertainty in where the highest totals of 6+ inches would occur,
thus the Winter Storm Watch covered more counties than if there
was a convergence on location for the highest snowfall totals.
The NAM/ECMWF is further north while the Canadian/GFS are further
south. On the backside of the system, strong northerly winds
are expected to produce some blowing or drifting of the snow,
especially across eastern Wisconsin. Due to the ongoing light
snow and gusty winds, the watch was continued until 9 am
Wednesday morning for the Interstate/Highway 41 corridor east
to the lake.

High pressure builds into the region Wednesday night to allow for
temperatures tank. On Thursday, high pressure slides east across
the area while a clipper passes to the southwest. Attention then
turns to an arctic cold front that will move across the area on
Friday, bringing a chance of light snow. Arctic air is expected
to linger across the area Thursday through the weekend, with the
coldest air next weekend where wind chills of -10F to -30F are
possible at times.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions were generally noted across the region, with a deck
of MVFR/VFR stratus across east-central Wisconsin.

Mid/high clouds will continue to stream across the area
this morning with low clouds arriving across central and north-
central Wisconsin this afternoon ahead of the next clipper system.
Some flurries are possible this afternoon; however, the main snow
from the clipper system is not expected until this evening and
into the overnight hours. Snow will spread across the region from
west to east (arrival times from about 01-06Z/Tue), lowering cigs
and vsbys to MVFR/IFR. Snow amounts of 1-3 inches are forecast
along and north of a Wausau to Appleton to Manitowoc line.

Light and variable winds this morning will become south-southwest
later this morning and gust to 15-20 knots this afternoon and
tonight. Increasing low level winds will cause a period of
LLWS tonight across all TAF sites with southwest winds of 40
knots just above the surface.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for WIZ018>021-030-031-035>037-045.

Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning for WIZ022-038>040-048>050-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kurimski