587
FXUS63 KGRB 102022
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
222 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers could lead to slippery spots on
  roadways across northern Door County through this evening. Up to
  1 inch of accumulations will be possible.

- Patchy light snow and flurries return all areas late tonight
  Tuesday morning. Little to no impacts are expected for the
  morning commute.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the rest of the week.
  Highs are forecast to rise above normal Thursday through
  Saturday.

- A chance of rain with gusty winds this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Early this afternoon, the latest analysis show a deep upper-level
low spinning across the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A
small meso-low was noted dropping across northern Lake Michigan.
A surface ridge axis is set to build in from the west tonight.

The focus in the short term remains on two periods of light snow.
First, snow showers associated with the mesolow and additional
lake effect showers continue over the northern part of the Door
Peninsula, where visibilities may drop under 2 miles at times.
These snow showers are weakening as they cross the U.P., likely
due to land- based instability disrupting the bands. Additional
accumulations up to 1 inch are possible before increasing
subsidence and backing low- level winds bring the lake effect to
an end by mid-evening. A second, separate round of light snow is
expected late tonight into Tuesday morning as a warm advection
zone pushes in from the west. Low levels will struggle to
saturate, with most moisture remaining above 5000- 7000 ft. This
will limit accumulations to a dusting to perhaps a half-inch,
mainly over north-central Wisconsin late overnight. This band of
snow or flurries is expected to weaken as it moves east,
potentially bringing flurries or light snow to the Fox Valley
between 6-9 am Tuesday before ending by midday. Impacts should be
minimal.

Partial clearing is forecast for Tuesday afternoon. Warmer
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

Flattened troughing remains aloft for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Some channeled energy could bring very light snow or flurries into
far northern Wisconsin late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
but the better saturation stays north of the border and snow chances
remain low. The primary impact on Wednesday will be gusty northwest
winds, which are expected to reach 30 to 35 mph as the system pulls
away.

For the long term, temperatures will gradually moderate through the
end of the week as upper ridging currently over the West is forecast
to shift into the central U.S. This will usher in much warmer than
average temperatures for Friday and Saturday. Considerable
uncertainty remains for the weekend system regarding the evolution
of a split- flow pattern. Latest guidance suggests the northern
and southern streams will remain mostly separated, which favors a
weaker system crossing the region. This brings a chance for rain,
with Saturday night into Sunday looking like the most probable
window, but confidence is low for a significant, windy rain event.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1124 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Through 00z Tue:  MVFR CIGS prevail north and west of a KAUW to
KIMT line late this morning. SCT SN showers are impacting Vilas
County airports, dropping visibilities to MVFR or briefly IFR.
These SN showers will end this afternoon. Additional SN showers
are moving south from the central Upper Peninsula into Door
County. The greatest impacts from SN showers, including brief IFR
vsby, will continue over Door County this afternoon, with minor
accumulations up to an inch. MVFR CIGS over central to north-
central WI will slowly lift this afternoon before eroding late
this afternoon into early this evening. SFC winds will be
generally from the NW at 10-20 kts with gusts up to 20 kts at
KGRB, KATW, KMTW, KAUW, and KCWA. KRHI will see NW winds at 8-16
kts.

After 00z Tue through 18z Tue: Clearing skies are expected this
evening, transitioning to mid and high clouds increasing from the
west overnight. Light SN and flurries are possible for a few
hours late overnight at KAUW, KCWA, and KRHI. No significant
impacts are expected, with high cloud bases maintaining VFR flight
conditions. A brief period of LLWS is possible Tuesday morning at
KAUW, KCWA, and KRHI, with WS020/22035KT or WS020/23035KT. SFC
winds will become lighter overnight, generally 3-7 kts from the
W-NW, becoming more southerly by Tuesday morning at 6-10 kts with
gusts up to 18 kts at KGRB, KATW, and KMTW.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....MPC
AVIATION.......MPC