174
FXUS63 KGRB 220929
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
329 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild with no significant precipitation expected until late
  Monday afternoon or evening.

- A pattern change is expected in the middle of next week, with
  colder and blustery conditions, along with possible gale force
  gusts on the bay and lake. Some snow accumulation possible over
  northern Wisconsin Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Mid-level clouds were spreading into the forecast area as WAA
increased ahead of a cold front approaching from the eastern
Dakotas. In advance of the clouds, clear skies and light winds
allowed temperatures to drop into the teens and 20s.

WAA, mid-level FGEN and a weak short-wave trough may generate
enough saturation for patchy light mixed snow/rain near the
WI/Upper MI border today. The previously-mentioned weak cold
front will move through the region this afternoon/evening. High
pressure builds back into the region by Sunday, and lingers into
Monday morning. Although clouds will hold back temperatures a bit
today, abundant sunshine on Sunday should allow the typical warm
spots to reach 50 degrees.

Rest of the forecast: The remnants of a Southwest U.S. upper low
will lift northeast toward the Great Lakes, bringing a chance of
light rain to our western counties Monday afternoon, and
widespread light to moderate rain to the entire region Monday
night into Tuesday. A strong upper trough over the Northern
Plains will then shift northeast and close off into an upper low
as it moves through northern WI/Upper Michigan Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This system will bring a mix of rain/snow Tuesday
night, which should change to mainly snow on Wednesday. As the
system shifts northeast Wednesday night into Thursday, gusty
northwest winds should bring potential for lake-effect snow to
the Lake Superior snowbelt, including Vilas County. Accumulating
snow will be possible across northern Wisconsin during this
period, with the highest likelihood of significant amounts
occurring over Vilas County. Due to the strength of the system,
there is increasing potential for northwest gales on Lake
Michigan Wednesday into Thursday.

Minor lake-effect may continue into Friday over the far north, but
Saturday is looking mainly dry at this point.

Temperatures: Normal to above normal temperatures are expected
through Tuesday, with much below normal readings likely for the
mid to late part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Good flying conditions are expected for the overnight period, with
clear skies and little to no wind. Some mid to upper clouds are
expected to arrive in the early morning hours, which will limit
any fog development for early Saturday.

Accompanying the mid clouds tomorrow afternoon will be a brief
chance for light precipitation, but this will largely be limited
to the northwoods near the Upper Peninsula border. As of this
forecast issuance, showers are still not expected to get even as
far as south as RHI, so kept this mention out of the current TAF.
Winds will also be on the increase on Saturday, with gusts up to
20 knots in the afternoon and evening across the area out of the
southwest.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Uhlmann