159
FXUS63 KGRB 162022
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
222 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mixed precip Monday night into Tuesday with snow accumulations
  (less than 1 inch, but monitoring for a narrow heavier band)
  could affect the Tuesday morning commute south of Hwy 29.

- Another weather maker brings precip chances (30-60%) Thursday
  into Friday.

- Temperatures return to near or slightly below normal this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Precip Chances: Dry conditions will prevail tonight into Monday
as high pressure drifts across the western Great Lakes.

The northern trend of the NBM/LREF has continued with the
shortwave trough and FGEN for the Monday night and Tuesday
system, as locations south of Hwy 29 look to get at least some
light mixed precip. Still some details to iron out regarding just
how far north the precip will get, whether it will be rain or
snow (and the change over time), and rain/snow amounts,
especially as we will be dealing with a FGEN band that could
shift a little as the event approaches and produce a narrow band
of heavier snow.

NBM/LREF probabilities have come down some since the last run,
with 0.1"+ down to 30-50% along and south of Hwy 29, with 0.25"+
at 10-35%. Chances of 1+ inch of snow running in the 10-20%
range, highest just west of the Fox Valley toward Waushara/Wood
counties. Forecast soundings showing some warm air near the
surface for the precip to start as a rain/snow mix. Then as the
precip continues, better saturation occurs, and the boundary layer
cools during the night, a change over to mainly snow is expected
in central WI, with a rain/snow mix over east-central WI. The
precip could remain snow a little longer than what is currently
forecast in the stronger FGEN band, otherwise a change over back
to mix or plain rain is expected on Tuesday. Canadian notably has
the stronger FGEN a little further north, which brings the heavier
QPF band into the southern row or two of counties, while the NAM
is mostly dry. This will need to be monitored, as if it occurs
and encounters the colder air, a sneaky narrow band of snow could
develop. DGZ and best lift will be quite high (around 15,000 ft)
for much of the event, but a secondary lower area of lift does try
to form Tuesday morning. Some dry air will also need to be
overcome closer to the surface at the onset. Do expect a pretty
sharp gradient on the northern side of the precip as drier air
will be advecting in from the east/northeast as well. Snow plumes
have come down some and are currently and are clustered around
0.3" to 0.4" in central WI, but some ensemble members are around
3" (which likely accounts for the FGEN band being further north).
Although snowfall amounts have adjusted down a bit with some
models almost completely dry, will not back off completely as
these FGEN bands can be tricky and move north in subsequent runs.
Therefore, will keep totals under an inch for now in our area.

Once this system exits by Tuesday evening, dry conditions return
for Wednesday. Then as the upper flow turns to the southwest,
another low pressure system will track northeast into the Great
Lakes. Current temp profiles support mainly rain, with some
indications of some locally heavier rain will be possible, with
the LREF probabilities of 0.5+" approaching 40%. This would help
the worsening drought conditions, but don`t want to get hopes up
just yet.

Temperatures & Winds: CAA behind a cold front will drop temps
back to near normal today with highs ranging from the upper 30s
across north-central WI to the 40s across the rest of the area.
There will be a chill in the air today as northwest winds gust to
30 mph, dropping wind chills in the upper teens and 20s much of
the day. Lighter winds under 15 mph arrive for the majority of
next week. The seasonal temps will continue for most of the week,
with Thursday looking to be the warmest as a little shot of WAA
arrives ahead of the next weather maker. However, highs look to
stay mainly in the 40s, with probabilities of reaching 50 under
10% due to cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1108 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Main concerns
will be gusty winds from the northwest through the afternoon, with
gusts up to 20 to 25 knots at times across all TAF sites. Any
lingering gusts are expected to drop off again through the evening
period, which should make for some quiet conditions going into the
overnight towards Monday. If winds drop off faster at the surface
than currently expected, this could create a brief window of LLWS
at all sites before winds aloft also decrease.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Uhlmann