278
FXUS63 KGRB 012054
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
354 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances expected Sunday night, Tuesday night into
  Wednesday and Thursday night into Saturday.

- Becoming windy Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, with gale
  force gusts expected on Green Bay and northern Lake Michigan.

- Near to slightly above normal normal temperatures anticipated
  through much of the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Precipitation has ended across most of the forecast area this
afternoon, with the exception of a few lake-enhanced rain/snow
showers over northern Vilas County. Mostly cloud to cloudy skies
covered the region, and temperatures were in the upper 30s far
north and 40s elsewhere.

Expect the stratocumulus clouds to gradually erode this evening,
but high clouds will increase overnight. Given the cloud trends,
temperatures are a tough call, but think most sites will drop
into the upper 20s and lower 30s, except 30s to around 40 near
lake Michigan.

A short-wave trough and associated cold frontal passage will
bring light rain to the region Sunday night. This will be a
moisture-starved and quick moving system, with most places likely
receiving well under a tenth of an inch of rain. Southwest winds
will crank up ahead of the cold front, with gusts to 25 to 35 mph
expected in most areas Sunday afternoon and evening, and higher
gusts to 35 to 40 mph possible along the Door County shoreline.
Precipitation should end by daybreak Monday, but gusty west winds
will persist in the wake of the cold front.

Another short wave and cold front will bring a chance of showers
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with perhaps a couple moisture-
laden and dynamic systems producing more widespread rainfall
Thursday night through Saturday.

Temperatures look to remain at or slightly above normal through
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Aside from isolated lake-enhanced showers near Lake Michigan,
precipitation had ended. Wherever partial clearing has occurred,
daytime heating has allowed stratocumulus to develop, with
ceilings generally in the 2500-4000 ft AGL range. Cloud bases will
continue to gradually rise this afternoon, leading to VFR
conditions over most of the forecast area. Clearing is expected
early this evening, with mainly high/mid clouds increasing late
tonight into Sunday.

Light north winds will become light and variable tonight, then
increase from the southwest Sunday morning, with gusts to 20 to 25
knots expected at the end of the TAF period. In addition,
increasing winds aloft will result in LLWS over north central and
parts of far northeast WI Sunday morning. Will only carry LLWS at
the RHI TAF site, starting at 15z/Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A tight pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front will
cause winds to increase across the nearshore waters throughout
the day on Sunday, peaking Sunday evening, then slowly
diminishing late Sunday night. BUFKIT shows 40-45 knot winds in
the mixed layer over the bay and northern Lake Michigan Sunday
evening, and NBM probabilities for gusts to 34+ knots reach 60-90
percent, so have upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning Sunday
afternoon and night. Have also issued a Small Craft Advisory for
the Lake Michigan nearshore waters south of Sturgeon Bay.

Although winds will ease some on Monday, continued gusts to 25+
knots will necessitate the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory
over the entire marine forecast area after the Gale Warnings have
expired.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
MARINE.........Kieckbusch