325
FXUS63 KGRB 240918
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
318 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain, low clouds and fog arrive later this afternoon and
  evening, and persist through Tuesday.

- Accumulating snow is likely over northern Wisconsin late Tuesday
  night into Thursday, with heavy snow expected in Vilas County.
  A Winter storm Watch has been issued for Vilas County.
  Additional winter weather headlines may be needed for Oneida,
  Forest and Florence counties.

- Strong northwest winds will gust to 25 to 40 mph Wednesday into
  Thursday. A Gale Watch has been posted for Lake Michigan,
  including the bay.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Mid-level clouds covered most of the forecast area early this
morning; the result of WAA developing ahead of an approaching
cold front. WV imagery showed an upper low moving from eastern CO
into western KS. Satellite and weather observations showed
extensive low clouds and fog lifting north through IA/IL.

The remnants of the Central Plains upper low will lift northeast
toward the Great Lakes late this afternoon and tonight, and this
will induce weak cyclogenesis along a cold frontal boundary as it
edges into WI. This system will draw mild and moist air into the
region, leading to widespread low clouds/fog and periods of light
to moderate rainfall through Tuesday.

Winter Storm: The resident low pressure system will deepen rapidly
as a strong upper low approaches from the Northern Plains Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This system will bring a mix of rain/snow
Tuesday night, which should change to mainly snow on Wednesday. As
the low shifts northeast Wednesday night into Thursday, gusty
northwest winds will bring potential for lake-effect snow to the
Lake Superior snowbelt, including Vilas County. Probabilistic
forecasts show a high likelihood of 1+ inches of snow along and
north of a line from Wausau to Wausaukee, with increasing amounts
as you head farther north. Most of this region will probably see
1-3 inches of snow, but much higher amounts are expected over
Vilas County, where there is now a 50-90 percent chance of 12+
inches in the northern part of the county. A Winter Storm Watch
has been issued for Vilas County late Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Additional winter weather headlines (probably an
advisory) will eventually be needed for Oneida, Forest and
Florence counties, for a combination of 2 to 5 inches of snow and
wind. Holiday travelers and hunters heading to the Northwoods
during the late Tuesday night through Thanksgiving Day period
will likely have to contend with hazardous travel conditions,
especially in the Lake Superior snowbelt. Winds will also be a
concern with this system, as gusts over the land areas reach 30 to
40 mph Wednesday into Thursday. Winds this strong could produce
considerable blowing/drifting of newly fallen snow across the
Northwoods.

Any lingering lake-effect snow showers ahould taper in Vilas
County off Thursday night into Friday. An inverted surface trough
may bring a chance of snow or mixed snow/rain to the region over
the weekend.

Temperatures: Normal to above normal temperatures are expected
through Tuesday, with much below normal readings likely for the
rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Quiet conditions are expected for most of the overnight period,
but winds will be on the increase aloft Monday morning, which
could produce a brief period of LLWS across the area before winds
mix to the surface.

High clouds are on their way into the region for the overnight
period but no impacts are expected on ceilings until MOnday
afternoon as rain approaches our area. Expect ceilings to fall
steadily into the MVFR to IFR by Monday evening as widespread rain
showers cross the region. The rain will likely also reduce
visibility at times across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Probabilistic forecasts are now showing a 60-90 percent chance of
northwest gales on Lake Michigan Wednesday into Thursday. A Gale
Watch has been posted from 15z/Wed through 18z/Thu on both the
lake and bay.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through late
Wednesday night for WIZ005.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Uhlmann
MARINE.........Kieckbusch