398
FXUS63 KGRB 220003
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
603 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drought continues to worsen as Severe Drought (D2) is now
  designated in far northeast WI with Moderate Drought (D1)
  expanding across much of the rest of the area.

- No significant precipitation expected until late Monday
  afternoon at the earliest, and more likely Monday night
  into Tuesday with 0.25 inches possible.

- A pattern change is expected to evolve next week with colder
  temperatures, windy conditions along with gale force gusts
  possible on the bay and lake, and a chance of snow showers
  across the north Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

So far this month outside the lake effect snow band across Door
County, precipitation totals have been meager as much of the area
has seen less than 50% of normal, with locations across northern
Wisconsin at less than 25% of normal. At Wausau, the precipitation
total so far was at a meager 0.07 inches, or 6% of normal while
Rhinelander was at 10% of normal and Green Bay 18%.

Except for a small chance of light rain or light snow over far
northeast WI on Saturday, tranquil conditions should prevail
through Monday morning. The next weather make will not approach
the area until later Monday afternoon, and then pass across the
area Monday night into Tuesday. This system is expected to bring
around 0.25 inches of rain, with the NBM probabilities currently
at 40-60%. The probabilities of 0.50 inches is only 20-35% across
central and east-central WI with probabilities dropping off as you
head north toward the Upper Michigan border. Behind the system,
gusty northwest winds are expected late Tuesday night into
Thursday, with gale force gusts possible at times on the bay and
Lake Michigan. Snow showers or flurries are also possible at times
across the north.

For Thanksgiving Day, there may be some lingering snow showers
or flurries across the north mainly during the morning. High
pressure will build into the region with winds gradually subsiding
during the afternoon. Dry conditions will prevail on Friday.
Temperatures will run at or slightly above normal through
Wednesday, then return closer to normal Thanksgiving Day and
Friday.

Although beyond the forecast period, the upper level weather
pattern is expected to evolve into a more active pattern
for the area during the latter half of Thanksgiving holiday
weekend. The pattern change is expected to bring precipitation
to the area which would help alleviate the drought. It is too
early to determine precipitation types/timing depending on the
final storm track.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 603 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Minimal aviation concerns are expected for the overnight period as
winds drop off and become light and variable for all TAF sites.
High clouds over the region should help inhibit any fog formation
during the overnight period as well, so VFR conditions are
forecast.

Mid clouds will return on Saturday, accompanied by a brief chance
for some light precipitation across northern Wisconsin, mainly
along the Upper Peninsula border. If this feature dips a little
further southwards, may need to be included in future issuance for
RHI, but should have little to no impact to the rest of the
region. Wind gusts will also be on the increase in the afternoon,
with periodic gusts up to around 20 knots out of the southwest
through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Uhlmann