Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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325 FXUS63 KGRB 240918 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 318 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain, low clouds and fog arrive later this afternoon and evening, and persist through Tuesday. - Accumulating snow is likely over northern Wisconsin late Tuesday night into Thursday, with heavy snow expected in Vilas County. A Winter storm Watch has been issued for Vilas County. Additional winter weather headlines may be needed for Oneida, Forest and Florence counties. - Strong northwest winds will gust to 25 to 40 mph Wednesday into Thursday. A Gale Watch has been posted for Lake Michigan, including the bay. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Mid-level clouds covered most of the forecast area early this morning; the result of WAA developing ahead of an approaching cold front. WV imagery showed an upper low moving from eastern CO into western KS. Satellite and weather observations showed extensive low clouds and fog lifting north through IA/IL. The remnants of the Central Plains upper low will lift northeast toward the Great Lakes late this afternoon and tonight, and this will induce weak cyclogenesis along a cold frontal boundary as it edges into WI. This system will draw mild and moist air into the region, leading to widespread low clouds/fog and periods of light to moderate rainfall through Tuesday. Winter Storm: The resident low pressure system will deepen rapidly as a strong upper low approaches from the Northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will bring a mix of rain/snow Tuesday night, which should change to mainly snow on Wednesday. As the low shifts northeast Wednesday night into Thursday, gusty northwest winds will bring potential for lake-effect snow to the Lake Superior snowbelt, including Vilas County. Probabilistic forecasts show a high likelihood of 1+ inches of snow along and north of a line from Wausau to Wausaukee, with increasing amounts as you head farther north. Most of this region will probably see 1-3 inches of snow, but much higher amounts are expected over Vilas County, where there is now a 50-90 percent chance of 12+ inches in the northern part of the county. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Vilas County late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Additional winter weather headlines (probably an advisory) will eventually be needed for Oneida, Forest and Florence counties, for a combination of 2 to 5 inches of snow and wind. Holiday travelers and hunters heading to the Northwoods during the late Tuesday night through Thanksgiving Day period will likely have to contend with hazardous travel conditions, especially in the Lake Superior snowbelt. Winds will also be a concern with this system, as gusts over the land areas reach 30 to 40 mph Wednesday into Thursday. Winds this strong could produce considerable blowing/drifting of newly fallen snow across the Northwoods. Any lingering lake-effect snow showers ahould taper in Vilas County off Thursday night into Friday. An inverted surface trough may bring a chance of snow or mixed snow/rain to the region over the weekend. Temperatures: Normal to above normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday, with much below normal readings likely for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Quiet conditions are expected for most of the overnight period, but winds will be on the increase aloft Monday morning, which could produce a brief period of LLWS across the area before winds mix to the surface. High clouds are on their way into the region for the overnight period but no impacts are expected on ceilings until MOnday afternoon as rain approaches our area. Expect ceilings to fall steadily into the MVFR to IFR by Monday evening as widespread rain showers cross the region. The rain will likely also reduce visibility at times across the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Probabilistic forecasts are now showing a 60-90 percent chance of northwest gales on Lake Michigan Wednesday into Thursday. A Gale Watch has been posted from 15z/Wed through 18z/Thu on both the lake and bay. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night for WIZ005. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch AVIATION.......Uhlmann MARINE.........Kieckbusch