722
FXUS63 KGRB 011115
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
615 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A light mix of rain and snow possible in far north-central
  Wisconsin this morning.

- Additional precipitation chances expected Sunday night, Tuesday
  night into Wednesday and Thursday night into Friday.

- Becoming windy late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, with
  possible Gales on Lake Michigan.

- Near normal temperatures through much of the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Precipitation from a surface trough will continue to sink south
through central and east-central Wisconsin this morning before
coming to an end. Additional precipitation is expected across far
north-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore the rest of today with
moisture from lakes Superior and Michigan respectively. Some snow
could mix in at times across the far north; however, ground
temperatures are such that any impact would be de minimis.

Precipitation Trends for the rest of the Extended Forecast: A
short-wave trough and associated cold frontal passage will bring
light rain to the region Sunday night into early Monday. This
system will will also generate gusty southwest winds ahead of the
front and west-northwest winds after the frontal passage. With 925
mb winds of 40-45 knots setting up Sunday night, there is
potential for Gales on the bay and Lake Michigan as well as Wind
Advisory conditions in Door County as winds gust to 45 mph late
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Another short wave and cold front will impact the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday, with perhaps a more moisture-laden system
arriving Thursday night into Friday.

Temperatures: Temperatures will oscillate a bit with the passage
of periodic cold fronts during the next week, but overall, should
remain close to normal. Will need to keep an eye on the end of
next week, as some models show fairly strong southerly return
flow and some potential for above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Scattered showers over central Wisconsin will generally slide
south this morning, with additional showers possible across
north-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore through today. A mix of
MVFR and VFR conditions are expected this morning, trending to
VFR this afternoon. Northerly winds will become light this
evening as high pressure approaches.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A tight pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front will
cause winds to increase across the nearshore waters throughout the
day on Sunday, peaking Sunday evening, before slowly diminishing
late Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds will gust to Gale
force at times on the bay of Green Bay and Lake Michigan nearshore
waters from Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. The
highest winds will be north of Sturgeon Bay on Lake Michigan and
the entire bay given the funneling effects from a southwest wind.
Given the fairly high confidence in reaching Gales (50-60%) will
issue a Gale Watch for the bay and nearshore waters south of
Sturgeon Bay Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. The
nearshore waters south of Sturgeon Bay will likely need a Small
Craft Advisory during this period, with wind gusts up to 30 knots,
or even Gales if confidence or wind speeds increase in subsequent
forecasts.

Although winds will ease some on Monday, gusts of 20 to 30 knots
throughout the day will likely mean Small Craft Advisory
conditions for most of if not all areas through Monday. Winds
should then ease below Small Craft Advisory criteria during the
overnight hours on Monday as high pressure builds in across the
region.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
MARINE.........Kurimski