847
FXUS63 KGRB 230843
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
243 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild with no significant precipitation expected until late
  Monday afternoon or evening.

- A pattern change is expected in the middle the week, with colder
  and blustery conditions, along with northwest gales on Lake
  Michigan. Snow accumulation is likely over northern Wisconsin
  late Tuesday night into Thursday, with locally heavy snow
  possible in Vilas County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A weak cold front moved through the area overnight, with little
impact other than west-northwest winds gusting to around 20 mph
and some low clouds over far northern WI. Temperatures were still
fairly mild early this morning; in the 30s and lower 40s.

High pressure builds back into the region today, and slides east
tonight into Monday. Expect a mild day today, but increasing mid-
level clouds will keep high temperatures from reaching their full
potential, especially over northern WI. Highs should reach the 45
to 50 degree range in most locations.

The remnants of the Southwest U.S. upper low will lift northeast
toward the Great Lakes, bringing a chance of light rain to our
southwest counties Monday afternoon, and widespread light rain to
the entire region Monday night into Tuesday. The remnants of the
southern stream energy will phase with a strong upper trough
approaching from the Northern Plains, resulting in a closed upper
low that moves through northern WI/Upper Michigan Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This system will bring a mix of rain/snow Tuesday
night, which should change to mainly snow on Wednesday. As the
system shifts northeast Wednesday night into Thursday, gusty
northwest winds will bring potential for lake-effect snow to the
Lake Superior snowbelt, including Vilas County. Probabilistic
forecasts show a 40-100 percent chance of an inch of snow along
and north of a line from Tomahawk to Iron Mountain, with the
highest values in Vilas County. Most of this region will probably
see 1-3 inches of snow, but much higher amounts are expected over
Vilas County, where there is a 40-70 percent chance of 8+ inches
in the northern part of the county. Holiday travelers and hunters
heading to the Northwoods during the Tuesday night through
Thursday period will likely have to contend with hazardous travel
conditions, especially in the Lake Superior snowbelt. Winds will
also be a concern with this system, as gusts over the land areas
reach at least 25 to 35 mph. There is a 30-70 percent chance of
northwest gales on Lake Michigan Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Any lingering lake-effect snow showers ahould taper off Thursday
night into Friday. A surface low or inverted surface trough may
bring a chance of snow or mixed snow/rain to the region over the
weekend.

Temperatures: Normal to above normal temperatures are expected
through Tuesday, with much below normal readings likely for the
rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1055 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Main concern for the TAF period will be the passage of a cold
front overnight, which will bring a period of gusty winds to the
region through the early morning, especially aloft. As a result,
kept a mention of LLWS through the early afternoon, at which point
winds will decrease again. Winds aside, minimal other aviation
concerns are expected for the region, with predominantly clear
skies through the early morning before some upper cloud cover
again moves through the region Sunday afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Uhlmann