736
FXUS63 KGRB 101600
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1000 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

New information added to update section.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The Winter Weather Advisory will continue for the Door Peninsula
through the afternoon despite a lull in the activity so far this
morning. A mesolow is dropping south towards Munising and timing
has the center of the low arriving at Washington Island around 12
pm. The leading edge will likely arrive between 11 am and 12 pm.
Based on returns from the KMQT radar, a quick 1-2 inches will be
possible over the northern Door Peninsula if the snow holds
together. The high snowfall rates could catch motorists off guard
should intensities remain steady.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another bout of lake effect snow showers for Door County through
  late this afternoon. Fresh accumulations of a couple inches,
  with locally higher amounts possible where snow showers are most
  persistent.

- Patchy light snow and flurries return all areas late tonight
  through the Tuesday morning commute.

- Warming trend rest of week. Highs edge back above normal
  Thursday through Saturday.

- Rain with gusty winds this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Lake effect snow remains the main focus for one more day.

Center of anomalously deep/cold upper low is over southern Lake
Michigan, spurring on intense lake bands into far southeast WI
into the Chicagoland area this morning. Though farther removed
from this activity, setup is still very favorable for locally
vigorous lake effect bands into northern Lake Michigan and still
up into central Upper Michigan and Lake Superior as well.
Soundings into northern Lake Michigan indicate that lake EQLs over
15kft don`t cease until later this evening, so we`ll still be
dealing with the lake effect in Door County.

Early this morning, decent convergence band set up with radar
algorithm pointing to snowfall rates up to 1"/hr. In the last hour
as 925-850mb winds veered more northerly, the band has shifted to
the east of Door County and weakened. Similar to yesterday though,
though not as strong intensity, do expect snow bands to reform
through the morning especially over northern Door County as plumes
of lake effect and moisture off Lake Superior translate across
the bay and Door County, enhancing snow showers. Manually bumped
up QPF/snow, with a hint from max HREF members (as nothing else
showed it, nor did they yesterday either). A few more inches could
occur through the day, with locally higher amounts possible far
northern Door, toward Washington Island. Seems a good "floor" for
additional snow amounts in northern Door into this afternoon is
around 2 inches. Winter Weather Advisory issued until 6 PM tonight.

Winds shifting northwest will bring light lake effect into Vilas
County as this event thus far has hit areas farther west and
farther north. However, lowering inversions and less lift/moisture
in the DGZ will limit additional snowfall to maybe up to 1 inch.
No plans to extend Winter Weather Advisory past 6 AM this morning
for Vilas County. Otherwise, another cool day expected with highs
mainly in the 30s and a few flurries at times in general NW to N
flow across the area. A lull this evening, then as winds aloft
back southwest, warm air advection aloft kicks in. Soundings show
saturation aloft west to east after midnight. Some dry air in
lowest 5kft. Envision some flurries or maybe a light dusting of
snow working across the area. Some of this light snow may still be
around for the morning commute on Tuesday over eastern WI, including
the Fox Valley. Even with that timing, light nature of the snow in
terms of accumulation and visibility, don`t foresee much in the
way of impacts. Any light snow exits by mid morning, allowing
highs to reach upper 30s to lower 40s. Southwest winds could be
gusty over eastern WI, though more significant gusts over 30 mph
appear unlikely.

Rest of the week into the weekend...Light lake effect snow, maybe
even mixed with drizzle at times owing to marginally cold airmass
by that time occurs Tuesday night into Wednesday far north-
central. Bulk of this light lake effect will be over Upper
Michigan with NW wind direction. Warming trend continues overall
with highs back into lower 50s by Thu/Fri and even mid 50s
possible on Saturday. These warmer temps are ahead of a stronger
northern stream shortwave trough and sfc low. Eventually some rain
and wind could arrive over the region later in the weekend as this
system moves through. NBM/LREF in agreement that probabilities
highest for rain are Saturday night into Sunday. Both these
forecast systems also suggest rain amounts of 0.25-0.50 inch
could be in store.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 555 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Lake effect snow showers will linger today over the snowbelts in
the north-central WI and across Door County. A passing flurry
will occur elsewhere. Except for MVFR cigs and vsby at times
(briefly IFR in Door County) where the lake effect is ongoing,
conditions will be VFR through tonight. After lake effect ends
this evening, light snow and flurries will spread across the
region after midnight, arriving into eastern WI around daybreak
Tuesday.

Northwest winds increase by late this morning, continuing through
the afternoon with gusts of 20-25 knots. Winds diminish this
evening, then become light southwest overnight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ022.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........MPC
DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......JLA