525
FXUS63 KGRB 150503
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1103 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Temps dropped off decently this evening east-central WI to as low
as upper 30s, near 40 where skies have stayed clear. Light SE
winds and the cooling temps have led to some fog forming. Thus
far, webcams and obs in the area only point to minor vsby reductions.
As warm front to the west shifts across WI the rest of the night,
and as clouds thicken from the west, temps likely will bump up
working through the overnight hours back through the 40s and the
fog should abate.

Arrival of a cold front on Saturday will result in brief period
of very broken high-based showers. Models that are handling the
rain over the Dakotas well are still not very bullish on showers
occurring over much of our area on Saturday. Greatest chances for
rain, still on track for northern and far northeast WI, generally
from 5-6am through 9-10am. Once the front moves through, skies
will clear out and northwest winds will turn gusty. No changes to
the forecast in that regard.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures through Saturday, returning to near or
  slightly below normal through next week.

- Minimal precipitation through early next week, with only light
  rain possible Saturday morning, and again late Monday into
  Tuesday.

- Worsening drought conditions will be possible due to the
  persistent dry pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Precipitation Chances...Mostly dry conditions are expected through
the weekend and through the start of the work week. The only
chance for precipitation will be in association with a cold front
expected to drop across the region on Saturday, bringing a low
chance of light rain (up to 35%) to the region Saturday morning.
Any rainfall would be minimal or nothing given the lack of
moisture with the front. The next chance for precipitation arrives
late Monday into Tuesday from a system moving over IA/IL/MO. The
northern precip shield of this system may spread into the southern
portions of the forecast area. However, models (deterministic and
ensembles) are still not in agreement with the placement of the
precip/system. If the northern solution pans out, the southern
portions of the forecast area could see a wintry mix, otherwise,
the southern solution would keep conditions dry. High pressure
follows this system for midweek, with the next chance of precip
trailing the high pressure to end the work week.

Temperatures...Southerly flow will keep above normal temperatures
over the area into Saturday, before the cold front sweeps across
the area causing temperatures to drop back to near or slightly
below normal. That being said, tonight`s low temperatures will be
about 15 to 20 degrees above normal ranging from the upper 30s to
upper 40s. Saturday`s high temperatures, likely occurring around
midday, will be about 10 to 15 degrees above normal ranging from
the upper 40s to upper 50s. Cannot rule out the potential (NBM
probs up to 50%) for a few spots in east-central WI seeing 60 or
low 60s. Temperatures will quickly fall Saturday evening/night
with lows ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s. High temperatures
for the remainder of the weekend and into next week will mainly
range from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Winds...Following the cold front on Saturday, southerly winds will
veer northwest and increase by Saturday afternoon, as post-
frontal CAA and a tightened pressure gradient supports surface
gusts of 25 to 30+ mph through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1102 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A cold front will pass across Wisconsin Saturday morning. As the
front crosses, a few high-based showers (VFR cigs and vsby) may
occur. Dry low-level air will be main inhibiting factor in seeing
much rain. PROB30 group is now only included at RHI centered on
12z Sat.

Ahead of the front, mid-high clouds continue to thicken from the
west. Where it has been clear this evening, light fog (1-3SM)
developed near the lakeshore at MTW and this will gradually fade
away overnight. A 40kt low-level jet down to 010 AGL atop light
winds at the sfc will result in developing LLWS, lasting until
early Saturday morning. Once the front passes, expect NW surface
winds to increase with gusts of 15-25 kts. Winds will gradually
diminish Saturday evening. Overcast skies in the morning will
scatter out in the afternoon, with skies mostly clear on Saturday
night.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.........JLA
DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......JLA