506
FXUS63 KGRB 060821
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
221 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- For tonight into Sunday morning, there is a 30-50% chance for
  greater than 1" of snow south of a Marshfield to Sturgeon Bay
  line. Elsewhere accumulations around an inch or less are
  expected. Chances of light snow taper off over northern WI.

- A clipper system is expected to bring a round of snow (60-90%)
  Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning, bringing a few
  inches of snow. The highest totals are expected across the
  north and far northeastern WI.

- A more potent clipper system is expected to bring another round
  of snow (70-90%) to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. There
  are indications that a band of 3-6+ inches of snow is possible
  with this system, although there is a lot of uncertainty in
  where this heavier band of snow will set up.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with
  moderating temperatures by the middle of next week. Temperatures
  across central and east-central WI could flirt with the freezing
  mark Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Sunday

Other than lake effect snow across far north-central Wisconsin
through this morning, dry weather is expected across the region
today as a weak ridge of high pressure tracks through the western
Great Lakes region.

A low pressure system tracking through the mid Mississippi Valley
will bring the next chance for snow to the region tonight into
early Sunday morning. While the best forcing and moisture are
expected to be across southern Wisconsin, there will be enough
frontogenesis and moisture across central and east-central
Wisconsin to bring a few inches of accumulating snow. Current NBM
probabilities for exceeding 1" of snow have risen slightly to 30
to 50% south of a line from Marshfield to Sturgeon Bay with
10-20% probabilities for exceeding 2" across roughly this same
area. Therefore, snowfall amounts across central and east- central
Wisconsin are expected to come out to be around 1 to 2 inches.
Further north dry air will keep snow totals under an inch with
only light snow or flurries expected. Dry air pushing in from the
northwest should bring a rather quick end to the snow Sunday
morning with most of the region turning dry by the afternoon.

Long Term...Sunday Night Through Friday

500mb pattern defined by ridging across the western U.S. with
downstream troughing over the eastern U.S. The active northwest
flow pattern will result in several clipper systems moving across
the region during the forecast period, along with temperatures
running below normal on most days.

For Sunday night, high pressure will slide east across the area.
With winds diminishing, the question is how far temperatures
drop Sunday evening into the early hours on Monday before clouds
arrive which will result in temperatures rising late. Did lower
min temperatures by a few degrees, especially in our typically
cold spots over central and north-central WI. On Monday, our
attention turns to the lakeshore where light low level winds
turn onshore during the morning. Lake to 850mb temperatures
differences of 13-15C may result in some snow shower or flurry
activity near Lake Michigan. Door County would be the most likely
candidate for some accumulating snow on Monday off the lake before
the main system arrives from the northwest later Monday afternoon
and evening.

On Monday night and Tuesday, clipper system will bring snow to
the area, with chances of snow at 60-90%. Probabilities of 1" of
snow is 50-80% north of a Wausau to Green Bay to Kewaunee line
while the probability of 3 inches is only 20-40% along the Upper
Michigan border. With the track of the clipper system, some milder
air will work into the area with high temperatures reaching the
lower 30s. across central and east-central WI. Meanwhile, a more
potent clipper system is expected to bring another round of snow
(70-90%) to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. There are
indications that a band of 3-6+ inches of snow is possible with
this system, although there is a lot of uncertainty in where this
heavier band of snow will set up. Confidence is growing for an
impactful event across the western Great Lakes based on the
NBM probabilities this far out with 40-70% chance of 3 inches
and 30-50% chance for 6 inches. Being five days out, the question
is where this band of heavier snow will set up. The latest
model run of the ECMWF/Canadian model has shifted this band a
little further south compared to last night while the GFS was
a tad bit further north with the axis of heavier snow. I suspect
the models will continue to shift from run to run on where this
axis will setup. Will wait and see! Otherwise, potentially another
clipper system Thursday and Thursday night, but latest ECMWF and
Canadian are trending southward with this system, thus impacts are
uncertain at this time. Colder air will work back into the region
later in the week, although some differences noted in the colder
GFS and warmer ECMWF guidance Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1018 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Snow is winding down across the area, with east-central WI and far
north-central WI still reporting light snow. Visibilities have
improved as the snow ends, but low clouds with bases around
700-1500ft in most places have kept MVFR and IFR flight conditions
for most locations. Cigs just above 3kft in parts of central and
east-central WI have allowed for VFR conditions.

Overnight, snow continues to end over the next couple hours, and
ceilings will gradually rise. Most places can expect VFR
conditions by Saturday morning, with the low clouds hanging around
far north-central WI until midday Saturday.

VFR conditions will likely persist Saturday afternoon and evening
(through the TAF period) with another round of light snow arriving
late Saturday evening and overnight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/Eckberg
AVIATION.......KLJ