208
FXUS63 KGRB 071728
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1228 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Upgrade Freeze/Frost headlines for tonight as confidence
  increases for temperatures in the 20s and 30s.

- Near frost/freeze criteria again Wednesday night, headlines
  will likely be needed.

- A dry week with high temperatures near normal. Small chances for
  rain Friday and this weekend. Higher chances early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

A brief shower or sprinkles are still possible in the far
southeastern forecast area for another hour or so as remaining
shortwave energy departs. Otherwise, the focus is on temperatures
for the next couple mornings as lows dip into the 20s and 30s for
most locations.

Temperatures...A cooler and drier airmass is now in place which
will result in daily temperatures averaging closer to normal this
week. The cooler air, along with clear and calm nights, has
increased confidence in frost/freeze conditions for tonight. Have
already upgraded the Freeze Watch across northern and northeast
WI for tonight/Wednesday morning to a Freeze Warning, plus
expanded this headline to include central WI in a Freeze Warning,
and issued a Frost Advisory for counties east through the Fox
Valley. NBM probabilities show an ~70-95% chance of temperatures
reaching 32F or colder across most of northern, far northeast, and
parts of central WI tonight. Therefore, fairly confident in the
Freeze Warning. A little tricker farther east and across the Fox
Valley, as a slight northerly breeze may keep temperatures a
little higher here. Regardless, seeing anywhere from 25-80% chance
of reaching 36 or colder, which is cold enough for frost
formation. Lakeshore counties will be in the lower 40s tonight,
keeping them out of frost territory.

Wednesday night/Thursday morning is forecast to be a few degrees
warmer, but probabilities of reaching 36F or colder north and
west of the Fox Valley range from 25-95%, therefore frost/freeze
headlines will likely be needed for parts of the forecast area.
Low temps will be in the 40s and 50s for the rest of the week and
into the weekend, well above frost territory.

Meanwhile, daily highs will be in the 60s through the week, with
some lower 70s possible this weekend.

Precipitation...Chances for rain are very low through the work
with with a large surface high pressure and upper ridging in
control. A shortwave and surface front pass through late Friday or
Saturday, which bring a small chance of precipitation. There is a
higher chance of rain as a deeper trough comes through late this
weekend or early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

VFR flight conditions are expected through the TAF period.

A weak cold front will bring scattered cumulus and a narrow band
of mid-level clouds as it moves through this afternoon and early
evening. Otherwise, only expecting gusty winds shifting from W to
NW/N in the wake of the front, then becoming light and variable
as high pressure arrives overnight. There is a small chance of
patchy ground fog late tonight, but confidence is too low to
include at any of the TAF sites.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
WIZ005-010>013-018>021-073-074.

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ030-031-
035-036.

Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ037>039-
045-048-049.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch