667
FXUS63 KGRB 152344
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
544 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will return to near or slightly below normal
  through next week.

- Light precip possible Monday night into Tuesday. Light snow
  accumulations (less than 1 inch) could affect the Tuesday
  morning commute south of highway 10.

- Worsening drought conditions will be possible due to the
  persistent dry pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Gusty winds and afternoon cumulus clouds should give way to some
easing of the winds and mostly clear skies tonight. Winds should
still be gusty tonight, although closer to 10 to 20 mph instead of
around 30 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight are expected to
generally range from the middle 20s across the north, to the lower
30s along the lakeshore. Similar wind speeds are expected on
Sunday with cooler daytime temperatures behind the cold front that
moved through today. Highs Sunday are only expected to range from
around 40 across the north, to the middle 40s across central and
east-central Wisconsin.

Precip chances...Ensembles continue to trend further north with
the early week system, bringing more of the cwa into the edge of
the precip shield. Better dynamics with the shortwave look to
remain off to our south, though the axis of higher moisture skims
central and east-central Wisconsin. Low confidence in precip type
issues coming into play as surface temperatures remain above
freezing at precip onset Monday evening. Timing of the wave will
be key in this regard, as an earlier arrival would be more
conducive for a rain/snow mix. This being said, suspect that the
dominant p-type will be snow as top down saturation occurs as the
entirety of the profile falls below freezing later Monday night.
As the system moves north, total QPF has also increased with 0.1"
sneaking into southern portions of central and east-central
Wisconsin late Monday night. This could bring a few tenths of an
inch of snow south of highway 10 and could affect the morning
commute on Tuesday. 500 mb wave train then ramps up toward the
end of the week, ushering in a more active pattern during the
extended leg of the forecast.

Temperatures...Cooler temperatures are expected to settle in the
mid 30s to mid 40s range for the entirety of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

In wake of cold frontal passage, VFR conditions are expected
through Sunday afternoon. Expanding stratocu could drop to near
MVFR over north-central WI/Upper Michigan border late tonight,
but it should stay VFR at RHI.

Northwest winds will remain gusty, though there will be more
lulls in the gusts tonight leading to occasional LLWS at
RHI/GRB/ATW/MTW.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......JLA