073
FXUS63 KGRB 150830
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
230 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures today, returning to near or slightly
  below average through next week.

- 20 to 40% chance of light rain mainly north of Highway 29 later
  this morning. Light precip again possible late Monday into
  Tuesday.

- Winds increase out of the northwest this afternoon. Widespread
  gusts to 30 mph will be possible.

- Worsening drought conditions will be possible due to the persistent
  dry pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Radar shows light rain not yet making it into Wisconsin early this
morning as the driving cold front remains draped over northern
Minnesota. These showers are still on track to impact north-
central Wisconsin later this morning, though the front remains
moisture-starved. Opted to lean more into the HRRR solution for
PoPs during this time, as it seems to be performing well thus far.

Precip chances... Ensembles have trended further north with the
early week system, bringing our southern tiers of counties into
the edge of the precip shield. Better dynamics with the shortwave
look to remain off to our south, though the axis of higher
moisture skims central Wisconsin. Low confidence in precip type
issues coming into play as surface temperatures remain above
freezing at precip onset Monday evening. Timing of the wave will
be key in this regard, as an earlier arrival would be more
conducive for a rain/snow mix. This being said, suspect that the
dominant p-type will be snow as top down saturation occurs as the
entirety of the profile falls below freezing later Monday night.
Regardless, total QPF looks to be held down to 0.1" or less as
Canadian high pressure encroaches from the north. Have retained
the chance PoPs that the blend put in, as well as mixed wx types.
500 mb wave train then ramps up toward the end of the week,
ushering in a more active pattern during the extended leg of the
forecast.

Temperatures... Another above average November day is in store for
northeast Wisconsin as 850 mb temperatures warm to near 17C
preceding cold FROPA. High temperatures are likely to occur early
in the day, coincident with a push of WAA under remnants of
thermal ridging. As such, highs will struggle to make it into the
60s similar to yesterday, with probabilistic guidance showing the
greatest chances (30 to 40%) in the southern Fox Valley. Temperatures
then fall back into the mid 30s to mid 40s on Sunday, stabilizing
in this range for the entirety of the work week.

Winds... Post-frontal CAA and tightening pressure gradient will
result in winds veering to northwesterly and increasing this
afternoon. With deeper mixing on tap, widespread surface gusts
between 25 and 30 mph will be possible on land, with a few gales
possible in our marine zones.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1102 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A cold front will pass across Wisconsin Saturday morning. As the
front crosses, a few high-based showers (VFR cigs and vsby) may
occur. Dry low-level air will be main inhibiting factor in seeing
much rain. PROB30 group is now only included at RHI centered on
12z Sat.

Ahead of the front, mid-high clouds continue to thicken from the
west. Where it has been clear this evening, light fog (1-3SM)
developed near the lakeshore at MTW and this will gradually fade
away overnight. A 40kt low-level jet down to 010 AGL atop light
winds at the sfc will result in developing LLWS, lasting until
early Saturday morning. Once the front passes, expect NW surface
winds to increase with gusts of 15-25 kts. Winds will gradually
diminish Saturday evening. Overcast skies in the morning will
scatter out in the afternoon, with skies mostly clear on Saturday
night.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Goodin
AVIATION.......JLA