267
FXUS63 KGRB 262023
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
223 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for north-central
  Wisconsin through 6 am Thursday morning. Heavy snow of 6 to 12
  inches is expected, with locally higher amounts in excess of 18
  inches possible in the northwest corner of Vilas County.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the rest of
  north-central and northeast Wisconsin through early this evening
  due to accumulating snow of 1 to 4 inches and blowing and
  drifting snow.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for central, east-central, and
  far northeast Wisconsin through early this evening. Strong
  northwest winds gusting 35 to 45 mph, locally up to 50 mph, are
  expected. This will lead to blowing and drifting snow in the
  winter headline areas and difficult driving conditions for high
  profile vehicles across the entire area.

- Confidence is increasing for accumulating snow on Saturday and
  Saturday night. There is an increasing potential (70-90% chance)
  for greater than 6 inches of snow over central, east-central,
  and northeast Wisconsin, which may impact post-holiday travel.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The first winter storm of the season will continue to impact the
region through early this evening with most headlines continuing
until 6 pm. No changes to the headlines were made this forecast
cycle.

Gusty winds will slowly wind down after sunset, but still remain
gusty near the lakeshore; where the Wind Advisory continues
through the overnight hours. Otherwise, winds of 30 to 40 mph are
still expected outside of the advisory through the overnight
hours.

For Thanksgiving Day, the weather will remain cold and blustery
but generally quieter than today. Lake effect snow showers will
persist across the snowbelt of Vilas County, potentially adding
another 1 to 2 inches of accumulation, while scattered flurries
may develop elsewhere due to steep low-level lapse rates in
cyclonic flow. High temperatures will range from the middle 20s to
lower 30s. Drier air arriving Thursday night will bring a gradual
clearing trend and diminishing lake effect activity, though
clouds will quickly return Friday ahead of the Saturday system.

Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, attention turns to a system
forecast to impact the region Saturday and Saturday night. An
amplifying long- wave trough over the center of the continent will
send a strengthening shortwave across the region, supporting the
development of a surface low. Guidance continued to trend
stronger with this system over the past 24 hours, shifting the
track to a path favorable for heavy snow across much of northeast
Wisconsin. Probabilities for snowfall exceeding 6 inches have
notably increased, now reaching 70-90% for central, east-central,
and northeast Wisconsin with lower (35-60%) but still substantial
chances across north-central Wisconsin. This presents a
significant concern for post-Thanksgiving travel. While it is
still too early to hoist headlines for this upcoming event, if
trends continue they would be issued in subsequent forecasts if
confidence remains this high. Winds with this weekend system look
to be substantially lower than the event ongoing today. Anyone
with travel plans on Saturday or Saturday night should monitor the
forecast closely as confidence in accumulating snow continues to
grow.

Once this system tracks through the area, very cold air will
invade the western Great Lakes region. Probabilities for dropping
below zero are all the way up to 30-50% Sunday night into Monday
morning for much of central and north-central Wisconsin and remain
a respectable 10-30% Monday night into Tuesday morning. Monday
during the day will also be cold as there is less than a 10%
chance of exceeding 20 degrees outside of far northeast
Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1056 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A strong cyclone will track through the region today, leading to
widespread precipitation, a mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions, and
strong winds.

Precipitation type has changed to all snow across the TAF site
with very strong and gusty west to northwest winds of 35-45 kts.
The snow and winds will result in blowing snow and reduced
visibilities to at least IFR at times for all terminals this
afternoon. The worst prevailing conditions in terms of snowfall
and reduced visibility will be over north-central WI, including
RHI, where snow amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected through late
this afternoon.

Conditions will steadily improve for all areas this evening as
the system exits the region. Ceilings will generally range from
MVFR to VFR tonight as the snow becomes confined to areas north of
RHI. Wind gusts will diminish slightly to 25 to 35 kts by late
this evening.

Very strong winds just above the surface to 50 knots will lead to
LLWS across all terminals through tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for WIZ005.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ010>012.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ013-018>021-030-
031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ013-
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for WIZ022.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski