700
FXUS63 KGRB 100247
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
947 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms late tonight into Friday, along
  with increasing winds.

- Above normal temperatures through next Monday, then a return to
  near normal conditions during the next work week.

- Additional rain chances occur Sunday night into Monday, and
  Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Canadian high pressure continued to shift east through the Great
Lakes this afternoon, with southerly flow developing over the
forecast area. Mostly sunny skies prevailed over the forecast
area, except near Lake Michigan, where cloud cover was locally
enhanced by a lake breeze.

Precipitation...Dry conditions prevail through this evening, but
a clipper system will bring precipitation chances late tonight
into Friday. This system is quite dynamic, with a 30 to 40 knot
low-level jet late tonight into early Friday, a cold frontal
passage on Friday, and a potent short-wave/upper low tracking
through NE WI Friday afternoon. Have increased pops with this
system, mainly with the pre-frontal showers associated with the
low-level jet and WAA. Will also maintain a slight chance of
thunderstorms (due to strong dynamics/weak instability) until the
front shifts east of the region mid-day. Winds will be on the
increase, with gusty S-SW winds in association with the low-level
jet ahead of the front, then gusty NW winds in the CAA in the
wake of the cold front Friday afternoon and night. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for all of our nearshore zones (including
the bay) from late this evening through Friday night.

Dry conditions are anticipated for the end of the weekend, but
shower chances return Sunday night into Monday, and again Wednesday
night into Thursday.

Temperatures...An extended period of mild temperatures is
expected through Monday, with lows in the 40s and lower 50s,
and highs in the 60s. A return to near normal readings occurs
for the rest of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A cold front will bring showers overnight into Friday morning.
Expect a transition from VFR to MVFR with showers and gusty winds
as the front moves through the area. Thunderstorm coverage is
expanding over western WI, and will add a tempo to AUW/CWA at the
start of the taf period.

Showers will develop across central and north-central WI (KRHI,
KCWA, KAUW) between 05-07Z, spreading to the east (KGRB, KATW,
KMTW) by 10-12Z. A period of MVFR ceilings (020-030 AGL) remains
possible over north-central and central WI on Friday morning.
Gusty S-SW winds ahead of the front will shift to gusty NW (20-25
kts) Friday afternoon in the wake of the front. Another round of
MVFR ceilings is expected to develop Friday evening over northeast
Wisconsin.

Outlook: Lingering MVFR ceilings and gusty north to northeast
winds may continue into Saturday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......MPC