563
FXUS63 KGRR 152356
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
656 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and Much Cooler on Sunday

- Mixed Precip Tuesday

- Rain Late Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Breezy and Much Cooler on Sunday

Cold advection gets underway overnight and continues into Sunday
as a deepening surface cyclone moves east and ridge of high
pressure builds in. Lake effect snow streamers from Superior to
northern Lake Michigan could clip the far northwest forecast area
late tonight into Sunday. We will have light snow amounts, less
than half an inch across northeast Clare County. Surface and air
temps are marginal and no impacts to travel expected.

- Mixed Precip Tuesday

Cyclogenesis expected across the Central Plains on Monday with an
area of warm advection/frontogenesis moving into the southwest
forecast area late Monday night. Model soundings show thermal
profiles favorable for snow as the column saturates and wet bulbs
near 0C down to the surface. Near surface temperatures expected in
the lower to mid 30s during Tuesday, and precip rates are not
expected to be heavy enough to overcome that to cause any issues
with travel, especially during the afternoon.

Cold advection and loss of insolation could result in some icy
patches on roads Tuesday evening. The DGZ dries out and precip
should end by Wednesday morning, but travel impacts could
continue on untreated roads.

- Rain Late Week

Active weather continues for late week with a Southern Plains low
tracking into the Great Lakes. Confidence in the details at this
point but there is enough of a signal to suggest at least a 20
percent chance of heavy rain Thursday night into Friday. The low
is moving quickly, although uncertainty at that time range results
on showers forecast to linger into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period.

NW winds continue to gust to around 20 kt early this evening in
the wake of the front/trough that is now east of the region. With
increasing cold air advection overnight and a respectable pressure
gradient, don`t expect significant wind decoupling, with gusts to
near 20 kts possible through the night.

Mostly clear skies tonight will give way to SCT-BKN 3-4kft
Strato-CU Sunday morning 13-15Z, as colder air aloft leaks into
the area, with some boost from Lake Michigan. With additional
mixing early Sunday, look for NW wind gustiness to increase to
around 25 kt by late morning.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Smith