279
FXUS63 KGRR 160443
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1143 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and Much Cooler on Sunday

- Mixed Precip Tuesday

- Rain Late Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Breezy and Much Cooler on Sunday

Cold advection gets underway overnight and continues into Sunday
as a deepening surface cyclone moves east and ridge of high
pressure builds in. Lake effect snow streamers from Superior to
northern Lake Michigan could clip the far northwest forecast area
late tonight into Sunday. We will have light snow amounts, less
than half an inch across northeast Clare County. Surface and air
temps are marginal and no impacts to travel expected.

- Mixed Precip Tuesday

Cyclogenesis expected across the Central Plains on Monday with an
area of warm advection/frontogenesis moving into the southwest
forecast area late Monday night. Model soundings show thermal
profiles favorable for snow as the column saturates and wet bulbs
near 0C down to the surface. Near surface temperatures expected in
the lower to mid 30s during Tuesday, and precip rates are not
expected to be heavy enough to overcome that to cause any issues
with travel, especially during the afternoon.

Cold advection and loss of insolation could result in some icy
patches on roads Tuesday evening. The DGZ dries out and precip
should end by Wednesday morning, but travel impacts could
continue on untreated roads.

- Rain Late Week

Active weather continues for late week with a Southern Plains low
tracking into the Great Lakes. Confidence in the details at this
point but there is enough of a signal to suggest at least a 20
percent chance of heavy rain Thursday night into Friday. The low
is moving quickly, although uncertainty at that time range results
on showers forecast to linger into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Surface low pressure will gradually move eastward over the next 24
hours from the Eastern Great Lakes at present (05z Sun) to off
the east coast of the U.S. by this time Sunday evening (05z Mon).
High pressure will remain anchored in the Northern Plains.
Southwest Lower Michigan will see a persistent northwest flow in
between these two features. Progressively colder air will move
into the region on the northwest winds which will generate clouds
off of Lake Michigan.

VFR weather is expected to persist through the forecast period of
06z to 06z. Moisture is very shallow, so we are not expecting
precipitation at the TAF sites. We will see a mixture of ceilings
around 6,000 feet the remainder of the night combined with cirrus
with cloud bases at or above 20,000 feet. Towards morning, or
around 12z, we should see cloud bases become more driven by lake
effect processes. Cloud bases will lower to around 4,000 feet
which will become fairly prevalent on Sunday.

The main feature of note will be a northwest wind tonight that
will generally be in the 08-20 knot range. On Sunday, after 13z,
winds will ramp up to 14-30 knots. Wind directions will be fairly
steady state in the 290-320 degree range.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Duke