098
FXUS63 KGRR 240440
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1140 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Monday night/Tuesday, Mild

- Colder, rain to snow, windy Wednesday

- Cold through the weekend, snowy

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Rain Monday night/Tuesday, Mild

We`ll start off partly sunny Monday and then clouds will increase
during the afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will advect warmer air
northward and highs will top out in the lower 50s.

A southern stream low is progd to move from the Sooner state to
northwest Ohio by early Tuesday. Rain (80 percent chance) will
push into the cwa Monday night and Tuesday morning. We`ll see a
lull in the precipitation before the trailing northern stream low
tracks across Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon. Another push of warm
air ahead of it will help temperatures climb into the 50s again
Tuesday afternoon.

- Colder, rain to snow, windy Wednesday

** Holiday travel may be impacted by winter weather **

The Wisconsin low will continue to deepen as it moves northeast
into the UP by Wednesday morning. A strong cold front will push
east across the cwa early in the day. Models continue to show a
band of rain quickly changing to snow moving across the cwa
Wednesday morning. H8 temps start out around 0c at 06z Wednesday
and fall to -6c by 12z Wednesday. The period of rain will be
relatively short lived before the transition to snow. Temperatures
will fall throughout the day. Also, wind may become an issue. The
deepening low will result in a tight pressure gradient which will
create the wind. ECMWF ensembles all show gusty winds with the
ensemble mean over 40 mph; coastal locations may see winds over 50
mph. The wind combined with the wet snow will likely result in
some power outages. Also, as surface temperatures fall throughout
the day, roads may become slick during the afternoon.

Wrap around moisture will move into the cwa Wednesday afternoon
and lake effect snow will also develop as lake delta t/s climb to
around 20c. Accumulations may be held in check, though due to
initially warm ground temperatures and some differential
anticyclonic vorticity advection moving over the lake. We`ll
definitely keep an eye on this.

- Cold through the weekend, snowy

Once the cold air slams in to the region Wednesday, it`ll be here
through the weekend with highs in the mid 30s. Lake effect snow
showers will continue on Thanksgiving with some accumulation
possible.

Another storm will take shape Saturday over the Plains. Models
show strong isentropic lift quickly saturating the atmosphere and
snow developing early in the day. Accumulating snow is likely
again Saturday into Sunday. There`s still some model timing issues
regarding this but the ensembles have latched onto accumulating
snow next weekend that will impact travel.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

We are starting out this forecast period with clear skies and
light winds. This will likely continue through the night, with
only some thin high clouds possible.

High clouds will thicken after sunrise, but will stay high based
through much of the day. Winds will pick up late morning-early
afternoon from the south with gusts 20-25 knots expected, with the
highest gusts toward KMKG, and the lightest winds toward KJXN.

Winds will diminish around sunset, with clouds dropping down to
around 15k ft agl by then. Clouds will then lower below 10k ft
after 00z with some sprinkles/light showers passing through. For
the most part, VFR conditions will rule through the end of this
forecast period with ceilings likely remaining above 6k ft agl.
KMKG may have some lower clouds coming in off of the lake, but
confidence in that is low at this time. Conditions will drop lower
after this forecast period.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...NJJ