669
FXUS63 KGRR 141930
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
230 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances for rain Saturday

- Decreasing chances for precipitation Monday night and Tuesday

- Change to a wetter pattern later next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Small chances for precipitation Saturday and Monday Night/Tuesday

We are seeing another bonus sunny day today, during a time of the
year when clouds usually dominate the weather over Lower Michigan.
High pressure at the sfc has pushed east of the area, and warmer
southerly flow is advecting in over the area.

The sfc pressure pattern and wind flow is indicative of a warm front
organizing over the area this afternoon. This is extending from an
occluding system to our WNW, and a triple point developing over the
upper Midwest.

There is not much moisture present at the current time, other than
some high cirrus clouds floating through. Not even any mid level
moisture/cloud cover present where the best warm air advection
gradient is. We do see varying degrees of moisture/cloud cover at
various levels tonight into Saturday. One thing that is noticeable
is the lack of deep moisture at any point through the front moving
through.

There just doesn`t look to be a solid moisture axis coming out of
the Gulf because of the trajectory of the flow ahead of the front.
This is the main reason that we have seen a drier trend in the data
over the last few days, when it looked like this may be a bit of a
soaker. It is possible that some areas don`t even see rain with this
frontal system.

- Decreasing chances for precipitation Monday night and Tuesday

We will see a clearing trend for much of the area by Sunday in the
wake of the cold front that moves through. The exception to this
will be across the far northern and northeastern section of the
forecast area. Up here, the upper jet core will be laid out, and the
cyclonic flow aloft and cold pool will clip the far northern area.
Models are hinting that some lake effect rain/snow bands may just
survive into our far NE area. These should not have any significant
consequence or impacts.

We should see a quiet day on Monday with some limited sunshine. The
lake effect clouds will move out early to the NE, and then we will
see high clouds stream in from the SW late.

We will see the upper low off of the coast of California get kicked
out by the next strong Pacific trough, and will rotate ENE toward
the region. A few days ago this system was forecast to lift far
enough north to bring rain to much of the area. Now, the large upper
low complex and sfc ridge downstream of the ridge to the west over
Central and Eastern Canada looks to shunt it just south of the area.
The NBM pops still bring some small pops into the southern half of
the area. This is likely due to a few remaining ensemble members
holding on to this thought. The better chance is that it misses us
to the south.

- Change to a wetter pattern later next week

Whether we see rain chances hold or not for Tuesday, Wednesday we
should be mainly in between systems and see dry conditions for the
area.

There is good agreement amongst the ensembles that we will see a
pattern change to more wet later next week. The ensemble mean upper
air pattern continues to show a change to a deep flow from the SW,
one of our more wet patterns for Lower Michigan. This flow takes
shape as a series of stronger waves coming in off of the Pacific
carve out a large upper low complex over the western half of the
country.

The SW flow aloft will kick out multiple short waves, and send them
right toward the state. As these systems move in, they will draw a
significant amount of warm and moist air from the Gulf into them.
With what has been a relatively dry summer and fall, this pattern
change brings a good chance of some much needed rain to our drought
affected areas. Rain chances will start to increase on Thursday, and
really get going then into Friday and beyond. We will have to watch
this pattern for accumulated rain amounts if the best moisture axis
remains over the area. Thunder will be possible also if we get
squarely into the warm sector.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

High pressure is sliding away to the east this afternoon, but it
has enough influence on our weather yet to bring VFR conditions
area wide. South flow has commenced today with south to southwest
winds of 5-15 knots at present on the back side of the high.

Conditions will remain VFR through the evening and into tonight as
a cold front approaches from the west. At 18z, the cold front is
just entering the Northern Plains across Montana and North Dakota.
The front will push south and east quickly tonight arriving in
Western Lower Michigan in the 15z-18z time frame (midday hours of
Saturday). The front will bring with it an increase in wind
overnight and especially Saturday morning where southwest winds
will gust into the 20-30 knot range. Ceilings will lower into the
MVFR category in the 12z-18z time frame Saturday morning.
Moisture depth is lacking, so while rain showers will be possible
they will be widely scattered. VCSH wording should take care of
the chance at this point.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...Duke