240
FXUS63 KGRR 211125
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
625 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Dry through the Weekend

- Pattern change to cold next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Mostly Dry through the Weekend

Lower Michigan is in between northern and southern stream low
pressure today. A trailing cold front moves through early today
with low level moisture and areas of drizzle peeling off to the
east this morning. A northern stream shortwave trough axis moves
through Saturday night, but favorable jet dynamics are north of
the forecast area and once again the bulk of the precip misses
southwest Lower Michigan.

- Pattern change to cold next week

Phasing of the northern and southern streams eventually happens
early next week with cyclogenesis across the Northern Plains into
Canada and a trailing front/trough concentrating an area of rain
moving through Lower Michigan on Tuesday. A longwave trough in the
wake of this low will bring a drop in temperatures for the middle
of next week. Cyclonic flow with a potential shortwave trough
axis rotating through could bring lake effect snow showers by the
middle of the week into Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

IFR conditions across parts of southern and central Lower Michigan
will be improving to VFR by noon, then VFR conditions will prevail
this afternoon and tonight. West winds near 10 knots today going
light and variable this evening.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Ostuno