211
FXUS63 KGRR 170519
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1219 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow to Rain/Drizzle Tuesday

- Late Week Rain Decreasing Trend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Snow to Rain/Drizzle Tuesday

Lake effect snow flurries persist across the northern forecast
border area tonight but no accums/impacts expected.

Cyclogenesis across the Central Plains on Monday with sfc low
tracking east and pushing an area of warm advection/isentropic
upglide into the southwest forecast area late Monday night. Model
soundings at AZO show the column saturating after 06Z Tuesday
with thermal profiles favorable for snow as the 0C wet bulb height
reaches the surface. There could be a quick burst of snow, accums
an inch or less, along and south of I-96 Tuesday morning before
sfc temps rise above freezing. Timing should be better defined as
the precip gets into the domain of the high resolution models.

Temperatures rise above freezing by noon and no travel impacts are
expected for the afternoon. The upper low shears out and is
absorbed in broad cyclonic flow across the NE CONUS. There is a
temporary loss of saturation of the DGZ during the afternoon that
could result in precip turning to drizzle. Temperatures fall below
freezing again Tuesday night and some icy patches are possible on
roads into Wednesday morning.

- Late Week Rain Decreasing Trend

An upper low ejecting from the SW CONUS will bring a chance of
rain by the end of the week, from Thursday night through Friday
night. Model trends with the 12Z guidance are for less phasing of
northern and southern troughing across the Great Lakes and a
corresponding decrease in the chances of heavy rain of 2 inches
or more.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Lingering lake effect stratocumulus continues to move inland off
of Lake Michigan tonight. We will see occasional scattered-broken
stratocu around 4,000 feet continue into Monday morning. VFR
weather is expected though right through the 06z to 06z TAF
period. There will be a period of mostly clear skies in the
afternoon, after which mid and high clouds will surge in from the
southwest. Winds will be northwest at 5-15 knots much of the next
24 hours.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Duke