374
FXUS63 KGRR 061651
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1151 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of freezing drizzle remains this morning south

- Snow amounts for tonight-Sunday trending a little higher

- Multiple chances for some accumulating snow next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Chance of freezing drizzle remains this morning south

Latest radar imagery this morning shows the more widespread light
snow earlier is steadily tapering off. What is left is an arc of
light snow extending from Mt. Pleasant, to Holland, to near Battle
Creek. This area is progressing east, and losing its steam likely as
it moves away from the warmer and moist air from Lake Michigan.

As this area of better echoes moves east, it will be when this moves
out that there will be a short window of opportunity for some
freezing drizzle. This will be the result of the loss of deeper
moisture, where the DGZ may become unsaturated briefly before all
precipitation ends, or flurries develop as cooler air moves in and
the DGZ becomes saturated. Thankfully this should not last long if
it occurs, and will be happening during a lower impact period as
compared to rush hour during the weekdays. So far, there has not
been anything reported upstream over Wisconsin. We will monitor this
situation for any extra messaging that might be needed.

The rest of the day should be mainly quiet. There may be some
flurries with the moisture layer in the dgz for the rest of the day.
No accumulations are expected through this evening.

- Snow amounts for tonight-Sunday trending a little higher

What looked like yesterday as another light accumulation of snow for
the lakeshore later tonight and Sunday morning, has now evolved to
looking a little more favorable for more of the forecast area to see
some accumulations, albeit light still.

We are still watching the next short wave coming at the area from
the WNW over British Columbia early this morning. What has become
more apparent is upper jet forcing, and even some possible coupling
of a departing jet to our ENE and the incoming jet streak.

This added forcing is helping to bump snow totals up a bit for this
next system, and to bring it in a little earlier. The lakeshore is
still looking like 1-2 inches, but now much of the forecast area is
looking at that amount, and maybe even a tad higher across the
southern half of the area where the forcing from the coupling jets
looks to be maximized. For the most part right now, it looks like we
will not need headlines. If amounts trend much higher, we may need
to consider some headlines down south.

- Multiple chances for some accumulating snow next week

We will see a fairly decent break in the snow potential from Sunday
afternoon through Monday evening. The next wave in the series misses
us to the south, and takes the associated forcing with it. The air
is cold enough for lake effect, but the flow will be offshore
initially on Sunday ahead of the incoming sfc ridge. Then, the flow
becomes from the SSW on Monday, and may clip Little and Big Sable
points with a few snow showers on Monday.

We will see enough warm air advection take place by the overnight
hours Monday night for light snow to break out for much of the area.
This is out ahead of a short wave heading straight for the area, and
associated sfc low riding along the U.S./Canadian border. This will
be another system in which the NW portion of the area will see the
best accumulations with the flow from the SW off of the warmer lake
in addition to the moisture boost. Those areas could see up to 4
inches or so, where the rest of the area would see 2 inches or less.

After a brief break on Tuesday in the wake of the low passing NE of
the area, the next system will bring in snow beginning Tuesday
evening and lasting into Wednesday morning. Right now, the core of
the precipitation would come pre-daybreak Wednesday as the upper
wave and sfc low pass across far Southern Lower.

The best snow accumulations with this system will likely occur just
north of the track of the sfc low. Right now, the track of the low
is expected to cross far Southern Lower, putting the heaviest snow
axis near the I-96 corridor. The track of this low and the wave are
expected to be tweaked a little since we are still 4 days away. That
is looking to be the system that has the best chance to bring the
most snow to the area. Areas near the track of the low and south are
likely to see rain mix in with sufficiently warm enough temperatures
present.

It looks like that once the late Tue/early Wed system departs the
area, we will see a relatively quiet period then through Friday with
small to no chance of snow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

Satellite and observational trends suggest ceilings will bounce
around 3kft over the next few hours for MKG and GRR before those
terminals and LAN climb to VFR for a brief time this evening.
Widespread snow moves in from the west tonight as a low pressure
system tracks south of the area. Conditions will deteriorate to
MVFR then IFR at all terminals after 06z. There is a 10% chance
of LIFR conditions, likely dependent on whether some lake
enhancement can add to snowfall rates. Snow winds down with
conditions improving to MVFR at MKG, GRR, and LAN after 15-17z
with the other terminals remaining IFR through the end of the TAF
period. West to northwest winds to 10 knots today will become
light and variable tonight into Sunday morning as the low passes
across northern Indiana/Ohio.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...Thomas