292
FXUS63 KGRR 190751
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
251 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Off and On Rain Chances (20% to 40%) Into Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Off and On Rain Chances (20% to 40%) Into Next Week

Overall mostly dry conditions are expected into next week as we
lack sufficient moisture and lift through most of the forecast
period. Temperatures will also be warming with highs in the 40s
and 50s and mainly in the 30s.

Our once rainy forecast Thursday into Friday continues to trend
downward as most of the lift is focused to the north and south
with the two low pressure systems. As the front moves through
Thursday we have a 20 to 40 percent chance of rain during the
afternoon. Sounding profiles though vary from remaining dry to
more of drizzly look. If more drizzly it could start as early as
Thursday morning within the region of warm air advection off of
Lake Michigan. Friday we may get clipped by the low passing to our
south with best chances (30 percent) along the I-94 corridor.

The weekend looks dry, but we`ll have to watch a shortwave with
associated 850 mb low level jet that may bring enough lift and
moisture for a few showers mainly north of I-96. Otherwise
attention turns to next week with another potential phasing
scenario, however chances are not high (20 percent) as current
solutions keep us in between the northern and southern systems for
Monday into Tuesday with only a few members bringing better
moisture and lift over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

The trend this evening has been one of improvement in aviation
conditions as ceilings have been lifting from north to south. All
TAF sites have improved to VFR as we approach 05z with the only
exception being AZO where MVFR ceilings remain. Guidance is varied
on how the rest of the night goes with some data suggesting low
clouds (MVFR and IFR) work back into the I-94 TAF sites. We have
decided to play the forecast more optimistic given the clear trend
toward improving conditions. Winds in the lowest few thousand feet
are expected to be from the east-northeast tonight so some drier
air should be infiltrating the area as well. Given the disparity
in the guidance though we will be watching the I-94 TAF sites
closely.

Wednesday looks to be a VFR type of day as the low clouds should
have moved south and west of the TAF sites. A deck of high clouds
(bases above 20,000ft) will spill in from the west during the
midday hours and lower into a mid deck (bases around 10,000ft) in
the evening.

Winds will be light under 10 knots through the TAF period.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...Duke