037
FXUS63 KGRR 230441
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1141 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Monday night and Tuesday

- Colder Wednesday into the weekend, rain then snow showers

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Rain Monday night and Tuesday

Mid/high clouds associated with a weak cold front are moving
across the state this afternoon. This front will move across the
cwa after midnight. Despite the front accompanied by a short wave,
the system is moisture starved and will move through dry. Quite a
bit of sunshine and highs around 50 are expected Sunday.

The next chance of precipitation will arrive Monday night. Models
have been consistent in showing a phasing of a southern stream and
northern stream low over the Great Lakes. Abundant moisture will
be drawn north from the Gulf and chances for rain are high (90+
percent).

The warm part of the system will pass through Monday night and
Tuesday resulting in all rain. The cold front follows Tuesday
night along with the upper short wave.

- Colder Wednesday into the weekend, rain then snow showers

H8 temperatures fall from +6c 06 Wednesday to -6c by 18z
Wednesday. Rain showers will turn to snow showers during the day.
Surface temperatures will likely remain in the mid to upper 30s
Wednesday which will limit any snowfall accumulations on roadways.
However, that`ll change Wednesday night as surface temperatures
fall into the mid 20s.

A decent setup for some lake effect snow will develop
Thursday/Thursday night with northwest boundary layer winds, lift
from the upper trough, and plenty of over-lake instability
courtesy of lake delta t`s around 20. The lake effect potential
will diminish Friday as high pressure builds into the western
Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

The mid level cloud cover that brought sprinkles to the area is
well east of the area already. Some clearing has taken place, with
more clouds around 4k ft streaming in from the NW. Indications are
stronger that low clouds in the MVFR category are likely for the
eastern terminals, including KBTL, KLAN, and KJXN by 12z. These
clouds are then expected to mix out/move out by early afternoon.
We will then have high clouds move through at that time. Winds
from the NW will become a little gusty with gusts of around 20
knots likely. Skies will then clear out, and winds will diminish a
bit by sunset on Sunday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...NJJ