346
FXUS63 KGRR 190444
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1144 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering Showers Through This Evening

- Cloudy with chance of rain end of work week

- Warm and dry through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Lingering Showers this evening

A weather system continues to move eastward through the Midwest.
This system stems from a positively tilted barotropic upper level
low moving along the southern Great Lakes. Latest radar as of 3
PM has a slowly moving band of showers moving through central
Lower Michigan. Expect a mix of snow/rain/drizzle/sleet as
temperatures continue to drop behind the low this evening.
 This band has decent instability and fairly deep moisture for
this time of year so rates could be moderate at to heavy at times.
The DGZ is unsaturated so large snow growth is not expected. As
it is convective, periods of sleet are possible but since QPF is
sparse overall, only expecting light accumulations. The above
mentioned wave will shift through the Mid Atlantic as high
pressure with drier air moves over the Great Lakes Region late
tonight, into Wednesday. Wednesday morning will see cold, below
normal overnight lows due to clearing skies and downsloping, drier
air. Wednesday morning temps will range from the upper teens
along US 10 to the low 30s along the I 94 corridor.

- Cloudy with chance of rain end of work week

 Midweek will see zonal flow with a clipper type system moving
along the Canadian border. That system is still on pace to move
through Thursday night into Friday.
 The mid to low level long wave trough will extend through the
region from a low that will be moving through northern Ontario.
 The best moisture according to the latest ensembles will
bifurcate southern lower Michigan.
 So while there will be a chance for rain showers Thursday into
Friday, chances are trending downward and should be scattered at
best.

- Warm and dry through the weekend

 Temperatures are trending warmer overall through the weekend and
into next week. Max and min temps are trending around 5 degrees
above normal with zonal flow through CONUS. Highs should in the
50s.
 Our sights then shift to a potential pattern chance mid to late
next week. Based on mid to long range patterns, there is the
potential for a rain event mid next week with a change to a
colder, potentially snowier pattern late next week. However, a lot
can change in that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

The trend this evening has been one of improvement in aviation
conditions as ceilings have been lifting from north to south. All
TAF sites have improved to VFR as we approach 05z with the only
exception being AZO where MVFR ceilings remain. Guidance is varied
on how the rest of the night goes with some data suggesting low
clouds (MVFR and IFR) work back into the I-94 TAF sites. We have
decided to play the forecast more optimistic given the clear trend
toward improving conditions. Winds in the lowest few thousand feet
are expected to be from the east-northeast tonight so some drier
air should be infiltrating the area as well. Given the disparity
in the guidance though we will be watching the I-94 TAF sites
closely.

Wednesday looks to be a VFR type of day as the low clouds should
have moved south and west of the TAF sites. A deck of high clouds
(bases above 20,000ft) will spill in from the west during the
midday hours and lower into a mid deck (bases around 10,000ft) in
the evening.

Winds will be light under 10 knots through the TAF period.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Duke