010
FXUS63 KGRR 040842
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
342 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of rain tonight and Wednesday afternoon

- Showers likely to end the work week

- Cold with wintery weather possible this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025


- Slight chance of rain tonight and Wednesday afternoon

 Showers tonight remain most likely through Northern lower
Michigan. Latest CAMS do pick up on the potential for a slightly
better chance for some scattered showers Wednesday afternoon as
the mid level low tracks through central Michigan. However, there
is still some disparity on position on the low. That track will
determine the best moisture, though the mid level trough and
accompanying frontal pattern remain fairly consistent.
 Some thickness advection coincides with a fairly strong LLJ at
850mb. While there shouldn`t be any thunder, it should aid in
shower formation.
 As stated in previous discussions, the sparse moisture will only
mean meager QPF amounts.

- Showers likely to end the work week

 Cold air in the wake of the previously mentioned frontal system
will drop temps down into the upper 20s to low 30s Thursday
morning. Those cold temps will be a taste of things to come. A
brief reprieve will come Thursday and Friday.
 Another system will move through the region Friday. All of these
are being guided by a large upper level low over Hudson bay.
 The mid and low levels will see lows with a quarter to a half an
inch of QPF associated with it. This could bring more widespread
showers across the region. Current timing is Friday afternoon,
though position and timing of front should shift as the system
arrives.

- Cold with wintery weather possible this weekend.

 Temps take a downward turn this weekend. Max temps could drop to
5 to 10 degrees below normal with highs in the low 40s to upper
30s and lows in the 30s to low 20s. The US 10 corridor could see
lows in the teens late in the weekend into early next week.
 The large low that has been directing the pattern through the
week should dislodge from its perch over the Hudson and dip
through Quebec. As it does this, it will drape the cold air over
the Great Lakes. This will also bring the first opportunity for
snow. There remains some question on snowfall, though the models
continue to bring ares of snowfall ranging from a half an inch to
several inches, Saturday into Sunday. GFS is further south, with
the EC further north. Either way, winter is coming so please take
steps to prepare.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions are in place across all of Southwest Lower Michigan
as we approach midnight. High clouds are streaming in from the
west. We will see a gradual increase in high clouds overnight with
bases generally at or above 20,000ft. On Tuesday, a mid deck of
clouds will begin to spill into the region ahead of a warm front
lifting north into the area. These mid clouds will lower from
10,000 feet midday on Monday around 18z, to 7,000 feet as we work
towards 06z on Tuesday. Not out of the realm of possibilities to
see an isolated shower near Muskegon late in the TAF period from
03z to 06z Tuesday. Winds will be much more tame in the next 24
hours as opposed to the last 24 hours. Wind will generally be from
the southwest on Monday at 5 to 15 knots. Some low level wind
shear is expected in the last few hours of the TAF period, 03z to
06z Tuesday, as southwest winds at 2,000ft increase to 35-40
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Winds and waves will continue through this morning. Though they
will continue to weaken into the morning, will keep the SCY into
this morning.

South flow will increase this afternoon/evening as low pressure
over the upper Midwest develops and another small craft advisory
may be needed.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...Ceru