541
FXUS63 KGRR 232255
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
555 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Monday night/Tuesday, Mild

- Colder, rain to snow, windy Wednesday

- Cold through the weekend, snowy

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Rain Monday night/Tuesday, Mild

We`ll start off partly sunny Monday and then clouds will increase
during the afternoon. Southwest flow aloft will advect warmer air
northward and highs will top out in the lower 50s.

A southern stream low is progd to move from the Sooner state to
northwest Ohio by early Tuesday. Rain (80 percent chance) will
push into the cwa Monday night and Tuesday morning. We`ll see a
lull in the precipitation before the trailing northern stream low
tracks across Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon. Another push of warm
air ahead of it will help temperatures climb into the 50s again
Tuesday afternoon.

- Colder, rain to snow, windy Wednesday

** Holiday travel may be impacted by winter weather **

The Wisconsin low will continue to deepen as it moves northeast
into the UP by Wednesday morning. A strong cold front will push
east across the cwa early in the day. Models continue to show a
band of rain quickly changing to snow moving across the cwa
Wednesday morning. H8 temps start out around 0c at 06z Wednesday
and fall to -6c by 12z Wednesday. The period of rain will be
relatively short lived before the transition to snow. Temperatures
will fall throughout the day. Also, wind may become an issue. The
deepening low will result in a tight pressure gradient which will
create the wind. ECMWF ensembles all show gusty winds with the
ensemble mean over 40 mph; coastal locations may see winds over 50
mph. The wind combined with the wet snow will likely result in
some power outages. Also, as surface temperatures fall throughout
the day, roads may become slick during the afternoon.

Wrap around moisture will move into the cwa Wednesday afternoon
and lake effect snow will also develop as lake delta t/s climb to
around 20c. Accumulations may be held in check, though due to
initially warm ground temperatures and some differential
anticyclonic vorticity advection moving over the lake. We`ll
definitely keep an eye on this.

- Cold through the weekend, snowy

Once the cold air slams in to the region Wednesday, it`ll be here
through the weekend with highs in the mid 30s. Lake effect snow
showers will continue on Thanksgiving with some accumulation
possible.

Another storm will take shape Saturday over the Plains. Models
show strong isentropic lift quickly saturating the atmosphere and
snow developing early in the day. Accumulating snow is likely
again Saturday into Sunday. There`s still some model timing issues
regarding this but the ensembles have latched onto accumulating
snow next weekend that will impact travel.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

The cloud deck around 18kft over the terminals will exit by 00z
with clear skies for much of the night. High clouds will increase
Monday morning with cloud bases lowering to around 15kft by the
afternoon. Consensus forecast keeps VFR conditions at all
terminals through the TAF period, however RH progs and HREF
forecasts suggest at least scattered sub 3kft cloud coverage, if
not a period of lower ceilings, are possible at MKG starting late
morning. Given low confidence in timing and occurrence have
elected to keep them VFR for now. Winds will increase from the
south by mid morning Monday to around 10 knots, with gusts to 20
knots at MKG and LAN possible in the afternoon.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Thomas