618
FXUS63 KGRR 191912
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
212 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of rain Thursday evening

- Chance of ran Monday night and Tuesday



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Chance of rain Thursday evening

High pressure over the Great Lakes will drift east tonight and low
level winds will become southeasterly. A weak short wave in the
upper flow is responsible for the mid/high clouds streaming across
the Great Lakes today. As dewpoints slowly rise after midnight, a
strengthening inversion will trap that moisture resulting in
overcast conditions into Thursday. The next chance of rain arrives
Thursday night as a short wave moving across the UP pushes a cold
front southeast across the cwa. Moisture along the frontal
boundary isn`t all that impressive but a 35-30 PoP for light rain seems
reasonable. The frontal boundary will be across central Indiana
Friday which will result in some sunshine as some ridging builds
in from the upper MS Valley.

- Chance of ran Monday night through Tuesday night

A southern stream system will track toward the southern Great
Lakes Monday night. Moisture streaming north from the Gulf
followed by a trailing short wave should provide a higher (50+
percent) chance of rain Monday night through Tuesday night. The
operational ECMWF and ensemble members are 12 hrs or so slower
than the GFS, so Monday night may end up being dry but Tuesday
looks wet. Temperatures will be too warm for snow over the cwa
given highs in the mid to upper 40s. The warmer air will carry
over into Wednesday ...a busy travel day before cooler air flows
back into the cwa late in the day behind the departing low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

AZO and BTL will see intermittent VFR/MVFR over the next few hours
as the clearing line shifts before MVFR ceilings move completely
over the terminals. The other terminals will remain VFR through
this afternoon and evening before MVFR ceilings arrive after
04-06z. Ceilings at all terminals are likely to fall below 2kft
with a period of IFR likely at AZO, BTL, and maybe JXN. These
conditions will continue through the rest of the TAF period.
Otherwise, expect east to northeast winds around 5 knots today
veering to southerly by Thursday morning.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Thomas