162
FXUS63 KGRR 101221
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
721 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow expected today into tonight

- Some light rain/snow Tuesday into Tuesday night

- Mainly dry Wednesday through Friday

- Chances for rain next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

- Lake effect snow expected today into tonight

Headline decisions along the lakeshore was the focus of the
forecast tonight...which is stating the obvious. Early season lake
effect snow events are always a bit difficult given a warm
boundary layer over the lake and warm ground. Both of which can
cut back on totals and lessen impacts on roads. This airmass is
cold however with air temps in the teens in portions of our
northern CWA. Headline decisions have been made however with our
highest confidence in heavier snows being across Mason and Oceana
Counties. These 2 counties will see the longest period of snow and
will have better connections to the long fetch and some pre-
conditioning off of Lake Superior. Started the headline at 7am up
in Mason and Oceana. South of there we have gone Winter Weather
Advisories given shorter periods of snow and not as much of a Lake
Superior connection, starting at 10am in Muskegon and Oceana and
1pm in Allegan and Van Buren. We feel 4 to 9 inch amounts are
possible in the Warning area with 2 to 5 inch amounts with locally
heavier totals possible in the Advisory. We have already seen
hefty totals early this morning downwind of Lake Michigan with
over 9 inches of snow reported at Valparaiso in Northwest Indiana
per a Chicago LSR.

All the parameters are in place for some heavier lake effect snow
with deep moisture through 700mb, strong instability with delta Ts
in the lower 20s C and lift associated with a shortwave moving
through in the mid levels this afternoon and evening. This event
at its core is the inland push of the band that is over Lake
Michigan now. Again, the band is situated over our two northern
lakeshore counties the longest and hence the warning there. Some
of the heaviest snow will likely occur this afternoon and early
evening as the band is moving inland across Western Lower
Michigan. Slippery roads and limited visibility will be the main
impacts. The lakeshore is still hanging on to a fair amount of
leaves which is usually the case in early November and therefore
power outages are possible given the weight of the snow on the
leaf surfaces. The snow will taper overnight as the band moves
inland.

- Some light rain/snow Tuesday into Tuesday night

Some light rain and snow will linger into Tuesday and Tuesday
night as the colder air hangs on. We will be cold enough for some
light lake effect rain or snow. Not expecting much in the way of
qpf though, any precipitation will be on the light side.

- Mainly dry Wednesday through Friday

We look to be mainly dry in the mid to lake work week time frame
as high pressure slowly moves into the Great Lakes from the west.
The surface high will be situated over the area Thursday night
into Friday. High temperatures through the week will warm from the
30s today and tomorrow, into the 40s on Wednesday and push to
above normal into the 50s Thursday and Friday.

- Chances for rain next weekend

A good signal for rain exists in the ensemble data from both the
GFS and the ECMWF over the week as a low sweeps through the great
lakes. Rain looks to begin on Saturday with Sunday having the best
chances with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 720 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions are in place across the area at 12z. The focus of
the aviation forecast is the band of lake effect snow that
stretches from near Manistee, MI to southwestward across the lake
to near Kenosha, WI. This snow band will gradually work its way
east and affect MKG this afternoon around 18z and the other TAF
sites towards 00z this evening. MVFR conditions are possible as
the band works through the area from west to east. At MKG, IFR is
possible as well. As the band works east impacts will be less for
places like LAN and JXN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ037-043.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ050-056.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST
     Tuesday for MIZ064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Duke